Missouri unemployment hits 25-year low as job postings shrink.
3.2%
Missouri unemployment rate
Lowest since Jan. 2000; vs. 4.2% national rate
-11.7%
Missouri job postings, YoY
70,510 (Jul '26) vs. 79,830 (Jul '25)
+3,300 jobs
Missouri nonfarm payroll growth
September 2026, plus upward August revision
3.0% vs 3.4% CPI
National real wage growth
Weakest wage reading since May 2021
This Month's Takeaways
01
Unemployment at a 25-year low masks a hiring slowdown.
Missouri's 3.2% rate is the lowest since January 2000, yet statewide job postings dropped 11.7% year-over-year. For nonmetro commerce leaders, this points to a labor market constrained by worker scarcity rather than one signaling robust new economic activity.
02
Skilled trades are pulling away from general labor in local pay.
Electrician pay (up significantly) and HVAC technician pay (up moderately) are rising locally while construction laborer and CDL driver pay are both down moderately. That split suggests investment and project activity concentrated in specialized trades even as general labor demand softens.
03
National wage-inflation gap has local purchasing-power implications.
National wage growth of 3.0% now trails 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage reading since May 2021. If nonmetro Missouri wages track this national pattern, local consumer spending momentum—a key input for retail and services activity—may soften even as the labor market stays tight.
04
Public-sector stability remains a relative bright spot, nationally this is not guaranteed.
National government payrolls shed 17,000 jobs in September, extending a 216,000 decline over the past year, even as Missouri's own employment gains were led by private-sector manufacturing and services. Nonmetro public-sector leaders should treat state-level payroll stability as distinct from—and currently outperforming—the national public-sector trend.
Local Economic Conditions
Missouri's statewide unemployment rate fell to 3.2% in September—its lowest since January 2000—while nonfarm payrolls grew 3,300, concentrated in durable goods manufacturing, construction, transportation/warehousing, and accommodation/food services, sectors that typically have strong representation in the state's nonmetropolitan regions. Job postings in Missouri fell 11.7% year-over-year even as unemployment tightened further, a divergence consistent with employers filling fewer net-new positions while still competing hard for scarce workers in trucking, construction, and skilled trades across North, Southeast, and Southwest Missouri labor markets.
Open Threads in the Data
Falling postings alongside record-low unemployment is less a sign of economic weakness than of a labor market with little slack left to draw on—nonmetro Missouri commerce leaders should read this as a capacity constraint on local business expansion, not a demand problem. Advertised pay softness in CDL driver, construction laborer, and delivery roles locally (all down, moderate) alongside strength in electrician and HVAC pay (up, moderate-to-significant) suggests skilled trades are pulling away from general labor and logistics roles in the local wage structure. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce planning bodies should evaluate whether regional training pipelines are tracking this skilled-trades divergence, rather than treating the broader labor market as uniformly tight.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the MO NONMETROPOLITAN AREA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$29,120 |
→ Stable |
7,749 |
| Retail Cashier |
$28,733 |
↓ Moderate decline |
2,792 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$36,416 |
→ Stable |
1,172 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$76,052 |
↓ Moderate decline |
21,766 |
| Delivery Driver |
$31,312 |
↓ Moderate decline |
10,132 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$87,991 |
↑ Significant increase |
52 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$36,400 |
↓ Moderate decline |
538 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$69,680 |
↑ Significant increase |
771 |
| HVAC Technician |
$63,185 |
↑ Moderate increase |
168 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$36,118 |
→ Stable |
1,102 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$37,090 |
→ Stable |
1,063 |
| Operations Manager |
$72,348 |
↑ Moderate increase |
58 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$33,280 |
↑ Moderate increase |
434 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$38,253 |
↑ Moderate increase |
5,161 |
| Registered Nurse |
$96,400 |
↑ Significant increase |
12,116 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$36,920 |
→ Stable |
1,183 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$142,219 |
→ Stable |
1,050 |
| Data Engineer |
$121,759 |
→ Stable |
298 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$60,039 |
↓ Moderate decline |
643 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$60,280 |
↓ Moderate decline |
240 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$62,207 |
↓ Moderate decline |
132 |
| Business Analyst |
$95,609 |
→ Stable |
250 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$92,066 |
→ Stable |
266 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$49,086 |
↑ Significant increase |
5,233 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$87,533 |
↑ Moderate increase |
680 |
Industry Snapshot · MO NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +8.1% |
↓ −50.1% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +4.4% |
↓ −45.2% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +10.3% |
↓ −31.6% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↑ +27.0% |
↓ −33.9% |
| Information |
↑ +4.5% |
↓ −62.9% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +8.8% |
↓ −47.5% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +3.7% |
↓ −37.2% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +8.4% |
↓ −35.0% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
↓ −3.1% |
↓ −34.4% |
| Government |
↑ +22.5% |
↓ −39.6% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Expected release
BLS state and regional employment data for September 2026, including nonmetropolitan detail, is scheduled for release October 20. This will be the first confirmation of whether the record-low statewide unemployment rate extended into nonmetro North, Southeast, and Southwest Missouri labor markets specifically.
Emerging pressure point
Heavy truck driver postings rose 104% year-over-year statewide even as overall postings fell, while retail postings dropped 39%. Watch whether this divergence persists locally, as it would signal continued freight and logistics demand even amid broader hiring caution.
Worth watching
National WARN Act filings remain below 2025 levels through September, and no WARN notices have been identified in Missouri nonmetro coverage this month. Continued absence of layoff activity would reinforce the state's low-unemployment, low-churn labor market narrative.
Policy context, non-partisan
Missouri's natural population growth has turned negative, with roughly 60% of recent population gains attributed to international migration. Immigration policy changes at the federal level carry direct labor-supply implications for construction, agriculture, and service sectors in rural and nonmetro Missouri, independent of any position on the policy itself.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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