{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 293, "label": "MN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:49:32.425445+00:00", "headline": "Greater Minnesota unemployment climbs, but not uniformly.", "headline_summary": "Nonmetro unemployment ranges from 5.0% in Arrowhead to 7.6% in Kanabec County, even as statewide joblessness hit 4.5% and trade wages kept climbing.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Arrowhead EDR unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Tightest nonmetro region vs 4.5% statewide"}, {"label": "Kanabec County unemployment", "value": "7.6%", "context": "Second-highest in Minnesota"}, {"label": "Labor force participation (MN)", "value": "66.7%", "context": "Down from 68.2% in Dec. 2025"}, {"label": "Northeast MN median hourly wage", "value": "$24.45", "context": "vs $23.70 Northwest MN, narrowing metro gap"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rural unemployment is rising everywhere, but not evenly.", "body": "Headwaters (5.7%) and East Central (5.6%) EDRs show meaningfully softer conditions than Arrowhead (5.0%), a gap that matters for site-selection and investment decisions treating Greater Minnesota as a single market. Kanabec (7.6%) and Pine (7.2%) counties rank among the state's highest, signaling localized distress across an uneven rural landscape."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades wages keep climbing despite a cooling labor market.", "body": "Electrician advertised pay rose significantly and construction laborer pay rose moderately even as regional joblessness increased, consistent with persistent skills mismatches amid otherwise soft conditions. This divergence suggests local economic distress is concentrated by occupation, varying significantly across the workforce."}, {"headline": "Metro-to-rural wage convergence continues, reshaping the regional picture.", "body": "Northeast Minnesota's $24.45 median hourly wage and Northwest's $23.70 now sit closer to metro levels than in past years, even as all 79 smaller Minnesota counties remain below the national weekly wage average of $1,459. Narrowing pay gaps may reflect rural wage pressure building independently of metro trends, a distinction worth tracking as a structural shift."}, {"headline": "Immigration enforcement effects appear in participation data and anecdote alike.", "body": "DEED's commissioner has directly attributed the statewide participation drop to 66.7% to immigration enforcement activity, and construction and hospitality lost thousands of jobs statewide earlier in 2026 during peak enforcement months. Nonmetro regions reliant on these sectors warrant monitoring as a bare, non-partisan economic fact affecting labor supply."}], "local_conditions": "Greater Minnesota's nonmetropolitan regions show rising unemployment across every geography this October, with Headwaters at 5.7%, East Central at 5.6%, and even the tightest region, Arrowhead, at 5.0% \u2014 all above the statewide 4.5% rate reported by DEED. Wage gains in construction (up, moderate) and electrician trades (up, significant) persist locally even as DEED Commissioner Matt Varilek links statewide labor force participation decline to 66.7% partly to immigration enforcement activity earlier this year, a factor compounding rural labor supply constraints already driven by aging demographics.", "implications": "Rising regional unemployment alongside continued wage growth in skilled trades \u2014 electricians up significantly, construction laborers up moderately \u2014 suggests labor supply tightness persists in specific occupations even as headline joblessness climbs, a pattern that complicates simple reads on local economic health. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or facility investment in nonmetro counties should treat regional unemployment figures as directional, given wide variation between Arrowhead's 5.0% and Kanabec County's 7.6%. Consider evaluating county-level data before drawing metro-wide conclusions about business climate in any single Greater Minnesota location.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Southwest Minnesota posted the weakest six-month employer outlook statewide, with two-thirds of responses leaning pessimistic. Commerce leaders in adjacent regions should watch whether that sentiment spreads or stays contained to the southwest corridor."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Kanabec and Pine counties' elevated unemployment (7.6% and 7.2%) stand well above the regional average, a gap worth tracking for signs of broader East Central softening versus a localized, contained issue."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide WARN notices affecting workers fell 69% year-over-year even as regional unemployment rose, an apparent disconnect worth monitoring \u2014 it may suggest job losses are occurring through attrition and small employers not covered by WARN requirements."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Wage convergence between Greater Minnesota and metro pay levels could either reflect durable rural demand or a temporary compression as metro wage growth stalls. Watch whether Northeast and Northwest regional wage gains (currently outpacing employment growth) hold through the next DEED release."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26347.0, "metro_p50": 31932.0, "metro_p75": 38605.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 31824.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34153.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 42586.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 86320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28965.0, "metro_p50": 32516.0, "metro_p75": 34992.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 43137.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58954.0, "metro_p50": 74732.4, "metro_p75": 86009.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35406.0, "metro_p50": 41396.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34358.75, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30391.5, "metro_p50": 36754.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38816.25, "metro_p50": 43826.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36025.0, "metro_p50": 43914.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 75681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78500.0, "metro_p50": 91999.0, "metro_p75": 102025.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 117500.0, "metro_p50": 153404.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99194.0, "metro_p50": 141646.6, "metro_p75": 158769.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59454.0, "metro_p50": 69462.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75257.0, "metro_p50": 89992.8, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55125.0, "metro_p50": 77000.0, "metro_p75": 83473.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44761.0, "metro_p50": 58136.2, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 115506.6, "metro_p75": 121770.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43726.0, "metro_p50": 58270.0, "metro_p75": 63829.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63916.0, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 117022.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 69123.5, "metro_p50": 89169.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82847.0, "metro_p50": 99821.6, "metro_p75": 111207.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 69986.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 98079.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 121680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 94900.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 78640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52801.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32940.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66986.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Regional unemployment rates for Headwaters, East Central, and Arrowhead EDRs"}, {"source_name": "Minnesota Reformer", "source_url": null, "statement": "Labor force participation rate decline attributed to immigration enforcement"}, {"source_name": "Rural Minnesota Journal", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kanabec (7.6%) and Pine (7.2%) counties among highest unemployment statewide"}, {"source_name": "Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Northeast and Northwest Minnesota median hourly wages"}, {"source_name": "Minnesota Reformer", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction and hospitality job losses during 2026 immigration enforcement surge"}, {"source_name": "Minnesota DEED WARN tracking", "source_url": null, "statement": "Minnesota WARN notices fell 69% year-over-year in affected worker count"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:16.124340+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}