{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 293, "label": "MN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:36.746203+00:00", "headline": "Rural Minnesota's labor shortage, not demand, drives wage gains.", "headline_summary": "Statewide labor force participation has fallen to 66.9% from 68.1% a year ago, while nonmetro counties like Clearwater post 7.6% unemployment \u2014 evidence that Greater Minnesota's tight labor market reflects shrinking worker supply more than business growth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Labor force participation (MN)", "value": "66.9%", "context": "Down from 68.1% a year ago, falling every month in 2026"}, {"label": "Highest nonmetro unemployment", "value": "7.6%", "context": "Clearwater County vs. 4.4% statewide (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "MN WARN notices, 2026", "value": "140 notices / 1,473 workers", "context": "Affected workers down 69% vs. 2025"}, {"label": "Self-employment share, select counties", "value": "~30%", "context": "Lincoln, Norman, Cook, Hubbard counties"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rural unemployment gaps mask a shrinking labor pool, not strength.", "body": "Counties like Clearwater (7.6%) and Koochiching (near 7%) post unemployment rates nearly double the state average, yet falling labor force participation statewide means fewer workers are being counted as available at all. Economic developers evaluating site location or expansion incentives in these counties should weigh participation trends, not unemployment alone."}, {"headline": "Public-sector payrolls remain the nonmetro economy's ballast.", "body": "Government jobs make up a disproportionately high share of nonmetro employment, and Minnesota's public sector added jobs even as finance and information shed positions statewide. For civic leaders, this underscores why state and local budget decisions carry outsized weight for rural economic stability compared with the Twin Cities."}, {"headline": "Wage gains in rural Minnesota reflect scarcity, not expansion.", "body": "Rural regions have posted some of the state's strongest income growth over two decades, a pattern consistent with persistent labor shortages rather than new business formation. Advertised pay for trades like Electrician (up significantly, $72,750 metro median) and HVAC Technician reinforces that skilled-trade scarcity, not demand growth, is the dominant wage driver."}, {"headline": "Self-employment concentration signals a thinner traditional employer base.", "body": "Counties such as Lincoln, Norman, Cook, and Hubbard show self-employment and non-employer business rates near 30%, well above the metro norm. Commerce leaders should read this as evidence that traditional payroll employment figures understate real economic activity in parts of Greater Minnesota."}], "local_conditions": "Greater Minnesota's labor market diverges sharply by geography this month: statewide labor force participation has fallen for eight consecutive months to 66.9%, down from 68.1% a year ago, while job vacancy rates in nonmetro counties remain structurally higher than in the Twin Cities. Unemployment in several nonmetropolitan counties \u2014 Clearwater at 7.6%, Koochiching and Red Lake near 7% \u2014 sits well above the statewide 4.4% rate, pointing to an uneven recovery across the region rather than a uniform cooling.", "implications": "Persistent labor-force exits in rural counties, which DEED attributes to an aging population and reduced in-migration following early-2026 immigration enforcement activity, suggest the regional labor supply constraint is demographic and structural rather than cyclical \u2014 a dynamic that affects capacity for business expansion more than any single wage adjustment could offset. Government's outsized share of nonmetro employment and continued public-sector job gains statewide (up 9% year-over-year) offer a stabilizing counterweight to private-sector softness in finance and information. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation decisions in nonmetro counties should consider reviewing county-level labor force participation trends alongside unemployment figures, since a low jobless rate in a shrinking labor pool signals a tighter available workforce than the headline number implies.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "September county-level unemployment data has not yet been published; when DEED releases it, watch whether the gap between high-unemployment counties (Clearwater, Koochiching, Red Lake) and the state average narrows or widens."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Minnesota's labor force participation has declined every month of 2026, a trend DEED links partly to immigration enforcement activity earlier in the year. Watch whether nonmetro counties with higher immigrant-worker concentrations see disproportionate participation declines relative to the Twin Cities."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Minnesota WARN filings are down 69% year over year with only 140 notices statewide, suggesting layoff activity remains historically low in Greater Minnesota. A reversal \u2014 particularly in manufacturing, which saw isolated nonmetro closures like Heliene in Mountain Iron \u2014 would be an early signal of broader softening."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Export growth tied to trade policy uncertainty could matter disproportionately to nonmetro manufacturing and agriculture-adjacent employers. Monitor tariff developments as a bare economic fact affecting rural export-dependent payrolls, independent of any policy position."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 32760.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27227.5, "metro_p50": 31345.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34045.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 42000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56558.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 85536.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33295.0, "metro_p75": 35170.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34746.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58556.0, "metro_p50": 72749.8, "metro_p75": 84186.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35295.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34528.0, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 42215.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30071.75, "metro_p50": 36094.6, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37971.0, "metro_p50": 43378.0, "metro_p75": 47351.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33828.0, "metro_p50": 41939.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 68585.6, "metro_p75": 74880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78290.0, "metro_p50": 90410.0, "metro_p75": 101283.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 116625.0, "metro_p50": 153293.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 143768.8, "metro_p75": 159247.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59565.0, "metro_p50": 70909.0, "metro_p75": 79570.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 91751.0, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54397.0, "metro_p50": 78648.6, "metro_p75": 83936.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 59449.6, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 94332.4, "metro_p75": 97330.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45497.0, "metro_p50": 59875.0, "metro_p75": 64413.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62515.0, "metro_p50": 94882.4, "metro_p75": 115737.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56953.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83093.0, "metro_p50": 99634.0, "metro_p75": 111832.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 98318.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 50013.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48422.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 121873.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 105680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 79181.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55264.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67973.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:13.421834+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}