{"schema_version": 1, "id": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 282, "label": "Missoula, MT MSA", "slug": "missoula-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:54:05.831292+00:00", "headline": "Missoula's low jobless rate hides a flat jobs engine.", "headline_summary": "Missoula County unemployment sits at a tight 2.3%, but countywide employment slipped and Montana shed 5,300 jobs statewide over the past year \u2014 the state's first annual decline since 2020.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Missoula County unemployment", "value": "2.3%", "context": "Sept. 2026, vs. 3.1% statewide, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Montana annual job change", "value": "-5,300 jobs", "context": "First annual statewide decline since 2020"}, {"label": "Missoula hospitality job loss", "value": "-440 positions", "context": "June 2024 to June 2025, metro-wide"}, {"label": "Montana labor force participation", "value": "62.6%", "context": "Down from 63.1% a year earlier"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a stalled jobs engine.", "body": "Missoula's 2.3% jobless rate looks strong against the 4.1% national figure, but countywide employment actually slipped by 9 jobs in September and Montana lost 5,300 jobs statewide over the past year \u2014 the first annual decline since 2020. A tight labor market and a growing one are separate signals, and conflating them risks overstating local economic momentum."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and tech wages are carrying the metro's wage story.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose to a metro median of $110,084 and financial analyst pay jumped to $127,500, both outpacing national medians, while Montana's information/tech sector grew 28% statewide in 2025. These gains concentrate economic lift in specific sectors while leaving the broader wage base lifted unevenly."}, {"headline": "Hospitality's pullback is a sustained drag on local commerce.", "body": "Missoula hospitality shed about 440 positions between June 2024 and June 2025, consistent with statewide softness in accommodation and food service. Given tourism's role in the local economy, sustained hospitality contraction is worth tracking as a leading indicator for consumer-facing retail and services."}, {"headline": "Metro tech and professional-services pay is cooling even as the sector grows nationally.", "body": "Software engineer advertised pay fell significantly to a metro median of $121,936 against a stable national figure of $154,403, and business analyst pay dropped to $75,773 locally. The divergence suggests Missoula's tech/professional base, while expanding in headcount per state data, commands a lower wage premium than the national market."}], "local_conditions": "Missoula County's unemployment rate held at 2.3% in September, well below both the state's 3.1% and the national 4.1%, even as countywide employment edged down by 9 jobs and Montana posted its first annual job loss since 2020 (-5,300 jobs statewide). Local wage gains in healthcare, professional services and tech are offsetting a continued hospitality contraction \u2014 the sector shed roughly 440 positions metro-wide between June 2024 and June 2025 \u2014 producing a labor market that is tight on paper but largely static in actual job creation.", "implications": "Missoula's sub-3% jobless rate signals a metro operating near full employment, but flat payroll growth and Montana's statewide job decline suggest the tightness reflects limited labor supply amid flat business activity \u2014 a distinction that matters for anyone gauging whether now is the time to expand locally. Advertised pay gains in registered nursing, financial analysis and operations management point to where local economic value is concentrating, while declines in software engineering and business analyst pay hint at softening demand in metro tech and professional services. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials should weigh labor-force participation and sector mix alongside the headline unemployment rate before characterizing the local economy as expanding.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Montana's October Labor Market Information report, including updated Missoula County figures, publishes November 20. That release will show whether September's slight employment dip was a one-month blip or the start of a trend."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Montana's labor-force participation rate fell to 62.6% in October from 63.1% a year earlier. A continued decline in Missoula specifically would suggest workforce attachment erosion independent of the unemployment rate, a distinction economic development officials should track separately."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Hospitality and food service losses have persisted for over a year; watch whether winter tourism season (ski, holiday travel) stabilizes or further erodes accommodation and food-service headcount, given the sector's weight in Missoula's consumer economy."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027, from $10.85. Retail and food-service advertised pay in Missoula, already near or above that floor, bears watching for whether the increase compresses wage differentials across entry-level roles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28074.0, "metro_p50": 34164.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27673.75, "metro_p50": 32666.6, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34634.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57121.0, "metro_p50": 78839.2, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31973.0, "metro_p50": 37651.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39000.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 48100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61428.0, "metro_p50": 69838.6, "metro_p75": 78302.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34083.0, "metro_p50": 36246.8, "metro_p75": 37158.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35334.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 42415.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34867.75, "metro_p50": 37291.6, "metro_p75": 37960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 44814.0, "metro_p75": 46067.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 42064.0, "metro_p75": 46583.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69960.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 82680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91614.25, "metro_p50": 110084.0, "metro_p75": 117048.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105528.0, "metro_p50": 121935.6, "metro_p75": 140000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80571.0, "metro_p50": 95766.6, "metro_p75": 112847.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55404.75, "metro_p50": 62345.0, "metro_p75": 65598.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82656.0, "metro_p50": 127500.0, "metro_p75": 127500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51646.0, "metro_p50": 79897.8, "metro_p75": 84212.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57507.0, "metro_p75": 70608.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59421.0, "metro_p50": 96405.6, "metro_p75": 108810.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34787.0, "metro_p50": 48353.0, "metro_p75": 53784.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56418.25, "metro_p50": 80978.0, "metro_p75": 95681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52814.75, "metro_p50": 65501.2, "metro_p75": 70938.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63064.0, "metro_p50": 75773.4, "metro_p75": 82195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 59753.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 53352.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48050.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 63931.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60232.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81970.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 98790.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33302.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61873.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Montana Department of Labor and Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missoula County unemployment rate at 2.3% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Missoula Current / MATR", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana lost 5,300 jobs over the past year, first annual decline since 2020"}, {"source_name": "NBC Montana", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missoula hospitality sector lost ~440 positions June 2024-June 2025"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana labor force participation fell to 62.6% from 63.1% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Montana Department of Labor and Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana minimum wage rises to $11.20 effective January 1, 2027"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana information/tech jobs grew 28% in 2025"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:13.748177+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}