{"schema_version": 1, "id": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 282, "label": "Missoula, MT MSA", "slug": "missoula-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:13.409306+00:00", "headline": "Missoula's low jobless rate hides a shrinking, selective labor base.", "headline_summary": "Missoula County unemployment held at 2.8% in August against a 4.2% national rate, but total employment slipped from 2024 peaks while registered nurse pay climbed to $110,916 and software engineer pay fell to $126,623 locally.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Missoula County unemployment rate", "value": "2.8%", "context": "vs 4.2% national, 3.2% Montana statewide"}, {"label": "Missoula total employment", "value": "69,408", "context": "Down from 2024 peak of ~68K+; +34 jobs month-over-month"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Lowest annual wage growth since May 2021"}, {"label": "Montana 2025 statewide wage growth", "value": "5.4%", "context": "Ranked #1 nationally, vs 3.4% U.S. average"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment masks a flat-to-shrinking job base.", "body": "Missoula's 2.8% unemployment rate sits well below the national 4.2%, yet total metro employment slipped from 2024 peaks with hospitality absorbing most of the decline. A tight rate here reflects a smaller, more selective labor pool as much as it reflects strength \u2014 a distinction that matters for anyone reading the headline number as a simple growth signal."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and finance are doing the metro's heavy lifting.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly (to $110,916 locally) and financial analyst pay jumped to $127,500, both outpacing national figures, while healthcare additions have been Montana's single largest 2025 job source. Commerce leaders assessing sector health should treat these two categories as the metro's current growth engine, not representative of the broader base."}, {"headline": "White-collar softness looks local, not national.", "body": "Software engineer pay fell significantly in Missoula (to $126,623) even as the national figure held stable near $153,652, and business analyst and electrician pay also declined locally against stable-or-rising national trends. Pattern is consistent with a metro-specific adjustment in tech and professional services rather than a broader national pullback reaching Missoula."}, {"headline": "Construction wage pullback bears watching against housing costs.", "body": "Construction laborer advertised pay fell significantly locally even as national figures held flat, a notable divergence given Montana's persistently high housing costs cited statewide. Worth tracking whether this reflects project completion cycles or a genuine softening in building activity relevant to regional housing supply."}], "local_conditions": "Missoula County unemployment held at 2.8% in August, roughly half the 4.2% national rate, even as total metro employment edged down from 2024 peaks amid losses concentrated in hospitality and softening in several white-collar roles like software engineering and business analysis. Wage growth remains the metro's defining counter-signal: healthcare, financial analysis, and operations roles are posting significant local pay increases even as national wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, suggesting Missoula's tight labor supply is overriding the national cooling trend in specific sectors.", "implications": "Divergence between a historically low local unemployment rate and flattening overall headcount points to a labor market constrained by supply, not demand \u2014 commerce leaders weighing local expansion should treat available talent, not available jobs, as the binding constraint. Named sector moves (healthcare, financial analysis, operations management all posting significant advertised-pay gains) indicate where capacity is genuinely scarce versus where cooling is more about softening demand, a distinction that matters for anyone assessing whether now is a favorable moment to invest in Missoula versus peer Montana metros like Flathead or Gallatin, both of which posted stronger 2025 job growth. Consider evaluating sector-specific momentum rather than the headline unemployment rate when forming a view on local economic conditions this quarter.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Montana's next Labor Market Information report, covering September data, publishes October 20 and will show whether Missoula's August unemployment dip to 2.8% held or reversed. Government economists should treat current figures as preliminary until that release."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Glacier National Park visitation fell 2.3% and reduced northwest Montana hospitality employment 1.4% this year; watch whether Missoula's own hospitality losses extend into the fall shoulder season as a regional tourism-demand signal rather than a local anomaly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction laborer and electrician advertised pay both declined significantly in Missoula this month against stable national trends. Commerce and development leaders should watch whether this reflects a near-term pipeline gap given the metro's ongoing housing-supply pressure."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "National financial-sector payrolls have shed 129,000 jobs since a May 2025 peak and government payrolls fell 17,000 in September; Missoula's own financial analyst pay is rising sharply even as national trends diverge, a gap worth tracking for what it says about local versus national sector cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28074.0, "metro_p50": 33617.6, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26615.5, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34634.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57121.0, "metro_p50": 76868.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31972.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 43722.4, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59414.0, "metro_p50": 69837.0, "metro_p75": 77411.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34083.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39534.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35324.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 29836.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36517.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 44814.0, "metro_p75": 44814.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37261.0, "metro_p50": 41835.0, "metro_p75": 46200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69960.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 82680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91956.0, "metro_p50": 110916.0, "metro_p75": 117884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 102100.5, "metro_p50": 126623.4, "metro_p75": 144511.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82910.5, "metro_p50": 95888.8, "metro_p75": 112847.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55404.25, "metro_p50": 61456.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82905.75, "metro_p50": 127500.0, "metro_p75": 127500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 57500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 57995.6, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73678.5, "metro_p50": 96224.0, "metro_p75": 101982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 52796.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 84977.0, "metro_p75": 95681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45691.25, "metro_p50": 48404.8, "metro_p75": 49567.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63064.0, "metro_p50": 81130.8, "metro_p75": 88507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53908.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 63450.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 64640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82353.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 96460.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33832.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67391.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:11.504097+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/missoula-mt-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}