{"schema_version": 1, "id": "missoula-mt-msa/human-resources/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 282, "label": "Missoula, MT MSA", "slug": "missoula-mt-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "human_resources", "slug": "human-resources", "label": "Human Resources"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T02:34:49.797192+00:00", "headline": "Missoula's 2.3% jobless rate hides a hollowed-out hospitality sector.", "headline_summary": "Missoula County unemployment sits at 2.3% against Montana's 3.1% and the US 4.2%, but roughly 440 hospitality jobs vanished over the past year while Recruiter pay jumped to a $79,565 metro median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Missoula County unemployment", "value": "2.3%", "context": "vs 3.1% Montana, 4.2% national (September)"}, {"label": "Hospitality job losses", "value": "~440 jobs", "context": "Missoula County, June 2024\u2013June 2025"}, {"label": "Montana weekly wage growth", "value": "3.5% YoY", "context": "$1,229 average, Q1 2026, 1st nationally"}, {"label": "Montana payroll jobs", "value": "-1,300", "context": "September, led by hospitality and finance"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Missoula's tight headline rate hides a hollowed-out hospitality base.", "body": "County unemployment at 2.3% looks like a seller's market for talent, but roughly 440 hospitality jobs disappeared over the prior year, meaning the tightness concentrates in sectors still hiring. Workforce planning for frontline and seasonal roles should assume a shrinking applicant base."}, {"headline": "Recruiter pay is surging locally while HR support roles lag.", "body": "Metro Recruiter advertised pay rose significantly to a $79,565 median, well above the $67,234 national figure, while HR Coordinator pay fell significantly to $43,309 against a rising $50,460 national median. The split suggests employers are paying up to secure hiring capacity even as they compress cost on administrative HR functions."}, {"headline": "Benefits Manager pay climbing in step with national trend.", "body": "Metro Benefits Manager pay moved up moderately to $116,048, tracking the $118,618 national median almost exactly. Parallel movement with the national market suggests this role's value is driven by structural benefit-cost pressure, a useful distinction when building the business case for headcount."}, {"headline": "Montana's wage-growth lead may not reach Missoula's support roles.", "body": "Statewide wages rose 3.5% year-over-year to $1,229 weekly, ranking Montana first nationally for wage growth in 2025. Missoula's declining Payroll Specialist and HR Coordinator pay suggests that statewide strength is concentrated in healthcare and tech functions, and compensation benchmarking should reflect that unevenness instead of assuming uniform gains."}], "local_conditions": "Missoula County's unemployment rate held at 2.3% in September against a state rate near 3.1% and national rate of 4.2%, a divergence that reflects a labor pool constrained by population scale, not broad-based hiring strength. Hospitality continues shedding positions (roughly 440 jobs lost county-wide between June 2024 and June 2025) while healthcare, professional services, and tech absorb the slack, producing a bifurcated market where headline tightness masks sector-specific hiring freezes consistent with the statewide \"no-hire, no-fire\" pattern.", "implications": "Sub-3% unemployment in Missoula signals real difficulty backfilling roles outside the contracting hospitality and retail base, but that scarcity is translating into targeted wage competition \u2014 Recruiter pay is up significantly locally while HR Coordinator and Payroll Specialist pay in metro trail national medians, suggesting employers are concentrating increases where pipeline risk is highest. Workforce planning should treat healthcare, tech, and professional services as the roles requiring proactive retention investment, while administrative and entry-level HR functions may tolerate longer requisition timelines. Consider reviewing where advertised pay for support-function roles has stagnated against national trends, since Missoula's low-wage-growth-and-low-unemployment combination could mean candidates are leaving those roles for better-paying sectors instead of staying put.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Montana's October Labor Market Information report, including Missoula MSA detail, publishes November 20. Expect confirmation of whether September's hospitality softness deepened or stabilized before year-end seasonal hiring."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Montana's minimum wage rises to $11.20 on January 1, 2027, up from $10.85. Missoula employers with entry-level and hospitality pay scales near the floor should model compression effects on roles one or two steps above minimum wage now."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Childcare constraints are keeping an estimated 23,500 Montana parents out of the labor force statewide, with 40% of businesses citing recruiting difficulty tied to childcare access. Watch whether Missoula employers expand childcare benefits as a differentiator heading into 2027 budget cycles."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National hiring has slowed to a low-hire, low-fire pattern with September payrolls revised down sharply. If that caution reaches Missoula's healthcare and tech employers \u2014 currently the metro's hiring engines \u2014 the county's sub-3% unemployment rate could tighten further, intensifying retention stakes."}], "roles": [{"role": "Compensation Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71049.5, "metro_p50": 105923.2, "metro_p75": 118326.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 100798.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Business Partner", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36920.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 83900.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Benefits Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79636.0, "metro_p50": 116048.0, "metro_p75": 122900.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 118618.2, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HRIS Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81198.0, "metro_p50": 97578.0, "metro_p75": 112931.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 95000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Coordinator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 43309.0, "metro_p75": 47902.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50460.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Recruiter", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54324.0, "metro_p50": 79564.6, "metro_p75": 87706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 67234.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Payroll Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48880.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 50229.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 61103.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Montana Department of Labor and Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missoula County unemployment rate at 2.3% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "NBC Montana", "source_url": null, "statement": "Hospitality sector lost ~440 jobs in Missoula County"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana statewide wages rose 3.5% YoY to $1,229 weekly, Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Montana Department of Labor and Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Montana minimum wage rising to $11.20 effective January 1, 2027"}, {"source_name": "Montana workforce research", "source_url": null, "statement": "23,500 Montana parents unable to work due to childcare constraints"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate at 4.2%, September 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "missoula-mt-msa/human-resources/2026-10.html", "pdf": "missoula-mt-msa/human-resources/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:12.654273+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/missoula-mt-msa/human-resources/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/missoula-mt-msa/human-resources/2026-10.pdf"}