{"schema_version": 1, "id": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 5, "label": "Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA", "slug": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:53:18.689648+00:00", "headline": "Twin Cities growth stalls monthly even as annual trend holds.", "headline_summary": "Metro payrolls fell 0.2% in September for a third straight soft month, even as annual job growth stayed positive at 27,800 jobs and Minnesota's 4.5% unemployment rate continued to run above the national 4.1%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro monthly employment change", "value": "-4,730 jobs", "context": "0.2% decline in September, 3rd straight flat month"}, {"label": "Minnesota unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate; above US every month in 2026"}, {"label": "MN wage growth vs inflation", "value": "0% vs 3.7% CPI", "context": "vs 2.9% nominal wage growth nationally"}, {"label": "Labor force participation (MN)", "value": "66.7%", "context": "down from 68.2% in December 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro growth has stalled on a monthly basis despite annual gains.", "body": "September's 4,730-job decline is the metro's third straight month without growth, even though payrolls remain 27,800 above year-ago levels as of August. That split matters for economic development messaging: the annual trend still supports a growth narrative, but recent momentum does not."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing is carrying the metro's expansion story.", "body": "Durable goods manufacturing added 6,792 jobs (5%) year-over-year, the metro's strongest sector performance, while statewide manufacturing also posted gains alongside construction and government. For economic development corps, this suggests industrial and advanced-manufacturing investment remains the most defensible growth pitch in the current cycle."}, {"headline": "Real wages are eroding faster locally than nationally.", "body": "Minnesota wages have stayed flat since last September while prices rose 3.7%, compared with 2.9% nominal wage growth nationally. That gap implies Twin Cities households are losing purchasing power at a sharper rate than the national average, a dynamic with direct implications for local consumer spending and retail activity."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation decline reflects structural forces.", "body": "Participation fell to 66.7% from 68.2% in December, a drop DEED's commissioner has linked in part to increased immigration enforcement activity earlier this year. Regardless of cause, a shrinking labor pool constrains the metro's growth ceiling independent of demand conditions, a factor government economists should track separately from unemployment."}], "local_conditions": "Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington employment contracted 4,730 jobs, or 0.2%, in September on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, marking the metro's third consecutive month without positive growth, even as nonfarm payrolls still ran 27,800 above year-ago levels as of August. Manufacturing remains the metro's clearest bright spot, up 7,861 jobs (4%) year-over-year led by durable goods, while Professional & Business Services and Financial Activities have contracted, a divergence consistent with the statewide pattern of mid-wage essential services expanding faster than high-wage white-collar sectors.", "implications": "Flat monthly momentum alongside positive annual growth signals a metro economy still expanding on a trend basis but losing speed month to month, a distinction that matters for capital and expansion timing more than for current operating decisions. Minnesota's statewide wage stagnation against 3.7% inflation, paired with a labor force participation rate that has fallen to 66.7% from 68.2% in December, points to a tightening supply picture that could constrain growth plans even as headline unemployment appears moderate. Commerce leaders evaluating local expansion or investment timing should weigh the metro's manufacturing resilience against softening professional-services demand before treating any single month's payroll print as a trend signal.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Metro employment has not posted a positive monthly print since June. Whether October or November breaks that streak will clarify whether the slowdown is a pause or the start of a sustained contraction."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Minnesota's unemployment rate has exceeded the national rate every month this year, an unusual pattern state economists are flagging. Watch whether the gap narrows or widens as Q4 data arrives, particularly given the Black unemployment rate's rise to 10.5% from 7.7% a year earlier."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "3M filed a new WARN notice October 19, adding to a year that has otherwise seen WARN-affected workers fall 69% from 2025 levels. A single large filing against an otherwise improving layoff trend is worth monitoring for whether it signals a broader turn in manufacturing or remains isolated."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Labor force participation has fallen more than a full percentage point since December. Whether this stabilizes or continues declining will shape how government economists and commerce leaders discuss local workforce capacity heading into 2027 planning cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28432.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38272.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29762.5, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45146.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58824.0, "metro_p50": 72255.0, "metro_p75": 83980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32800.0, "metro_p50": 39112.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37662.0, "metro_p50": 44828.6, "metro_p75": 48608.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74015.0, "metro_p50": 95292.0, "metro_p75": 103199.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37844.5, "metro_p50": 43430.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37729.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49408.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40037.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40250.0, "metro_p50": 49917.6, "metro_p75": 56000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 74880.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89478.0, "metro_p50": 107500.0, "metro_p75": 119437.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113629.5, "metro_p50": 140700.0, "metro_p75": 156602.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91479.5, "metro_p50": 129611.0, "metro_p75": 143322.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63734.25, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 83952.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77533.0, "metro_p50": 97887.0, "metro_p75": 105028.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64495.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60160.0, "metro_p50": 75920.0, "metro_p75": 89670.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 115506.6, "metro_p75": 121770.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40040.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 64851.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66560.0, "metro_p50": 96401.4, "metro_p75": 117297.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70247.0, "metro_p50": 89169.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81962.0, "metro_p50": 101395.8, "metro_p75": 110000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 101436.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40716.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 129131.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 99142.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 73613.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52936.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69664.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:11.635742+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}