{"schema_version": 1, "id": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 5, "label": "Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA", "slug": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:08.107837+00:00", "headline": "Twin Cities jobless rate climbs as workforce shrinks, not demand", "headline_summary": "Minneapolis-St. Paul unemployment reached 4.7% in August against a 4.1% national rate, even as statewide labor force participation fell to 66.9% -- a sign the metro's challenge is shrinking labor supply, not weakening demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.7%", "context": "vs 4.4% Minnesota, 4.1% U.S. (August 2026)"}, {"label": "MN labor force participation", "value": "66.9%", "context": "Down from 68.1% a year ago, falling every month"}, {"label": "Metro average weekly wage", "value": "$1,747", "context": "vs $1,654 U.S. average (Q1 2026)"}, {"label": "Minnesota WARN-affected workers", "value": "1,473", "context": "Down 69% from 2025 pace"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro jobless rate outpaces state and nation, but supply is the real constraint.", "body": "Minneapolis-St. Paul's 4.7% unemployment rate sits above Minnesota's 4.4% and the U.S. 4.1%, yet labor force participation has fallen every month in 2026 to 66.9%. A rising jobless rate alongside shrinking participation suggests fewer available workers rather than weaker demand -- a distinction that matters for anyone assessing local business capacity."}, {"headline": "Public-sector payrolls are doing more of the region's heavy lifting.", "body": "Minnesota's public sector added jobs at a 9% annual clip even as finance (-3.1%) and information (-4.1%) employment contracted statewide. Government payroll stability is currently offsetting weakness in higher-wage private sectors, a pattern worth tracking as a gauge of overall regional income stability."}, {"headline": "Metro wages still beat the national average, but the gap is not widening.", "body": "Average weekly wages of $1,747 in the metro remain above the $1,654 national figure, and private-sector compensation costs grew 3.8% year-over-year locally versus 3.3% nationally through late 2025. Momentum has flattened alongside slowing job growth, suggesting the metro's wage advantage is holding rather than accelerating."}, {"headline": "Immigration enforcement's labor-supply effect looks structural, not temporary.", "body": "DEED's commissioner has directly tied declining labor force participation to enforcement actions that left immigrant workers hesitant to work or shop, compounding an already aging workforce. Bare participation data -- not policy commentary -- shows the trend has persisted through every month of 2026, a fact relevant to any assessment of local labor supply over the next year."}], "local_conditions": "Minneapolis-St. Paul metro unemployment climbed to 4.7% in August, running above both the Minnesota statewide rate of 4.4% and the national rate of 4.1%, even as average weekly wages of $1,747 continue to outpace the U.S. average of $1,654. Statewide labor force participation has declined every month this year to 66.9%, a drop DEED's commissioner links to an aging workforce and a chilling effect on immigrant labor participation following stepped-up immigration enforcement earlier in the year.", "implications": "Metro-level unemployment running half a point above the national rate, paired with a shrinking labor pool, points to a local economy where available workers are harder to find even as overall demand cools -- a combination that complicates both public-sector workforce planning and private investment timing. Sector divergence matters here: finance and information employment are contracting locally while public-sector payrolls grew 9% year over year, suggesting government hiring is currently a stabilizing force for the regional economy rather than a drag. Commerce leaders evaluating local expansion or investment timing should weigh this labor-supply tightening against the softer overall demand signal, rather than reading the higher jobless rate alone as economic weakness.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Minnesota's labor force participation has declined for eight consecutive months; a stabilization or further drop in the next two reports will clarify whether the trend is leveling off or continuing to erode the available local workforce."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Finance and information sectors have shed jobs locally and statewide for multiple consecutive months. Watch whether these losses spread to other white-collar segments or remain contained, as that will shape expectations for office-sector commercial activity in the metro."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National September payroll growth of just 29,000 with downward revisions to July and August suggests cooling momentum entering the fourth quarter; a comparable slowdown in Minnesota's October DEED report would confirm the metro is tracking the national deceleration rather than diverging from it."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Minnesota WARN notices affected 1,473 workers through 2026, down 69% from last year's pace -- a historically low layoff signal. Any uptick in metro-specific filings over the next two months would be a meaningful departure from this otherwise stable pattern."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28607.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38428.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 35566.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36345.25, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45438.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57501.5, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31492.0, "metro_p50": 37281.0, "metro_p75": 44000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38390.5, "metro_p50": 45000.0, "metro_p75": 49830.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73691.0, "metro_p50": 95181.0, "metro_p75": 99755.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37700.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43891.6, "metro_p75": 49054.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31179.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39846.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 45656.0, "metro_p75": 48537.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 54866.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 73867.4, "metro_p75": 80065.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88977.5, "metro_p50": 105790.0, "metro_p75": 118348.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111993.25, "metro_p50": 140000.0, "metro_p75": 156000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92032.25, "metro_p50": 129605.2, "metro_p75": 143323.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63058.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 83801.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77924.0, "metro_p50": 97399.4, "metro_p75": 104082.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63904.75, "metro_p50": 74994.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59848.0, "metro_p50": 75151.0, "metro_p75": 87250.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 94332.4, "metro_p75": 97330.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40560.0, "metro_p50": 56214.0, "metro_p75": 64935.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 94177.8, "metro_p75": 113690.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 89169.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82323.5, "metro_p50": 101192.0, "metro_p75": 109750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 100208.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 129000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 97950.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 72800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52332.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 71246.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:09.644810+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/minneapolis-st-paul-bloomington-mn-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}