{"schema_version": 1, "id": "milwaukee-waukesha-west-allis-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 257, "label": "Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA", "slug": "milwaukee-waukesha-west-allis-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:03.473985+00:00", "headline": "Milwaukee's low jobless rate hides a shrinking job base", "headline_summary": "Milwaukee-area unemployment remains near 3%, but payrolls have contracted year-over-year since April 2025 even as construction employment grew 9.6%, a split that complicates any simple reading of metro economic health.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.1%", "context": "Dec 2025, vs 4.2% national (Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro employment trend", "value": "YoY decline since Apr 2025", "context": "Contrasts with still-low jobless rate"}, {"label": "Construction job growth", "value": "+9.6% YoY", "context": "~3,400 jobs added, outpaces all other sectors"}, {"label": "Wisconsin wage vs inflation", "value": "4.2% wage growth vs 3.9% core CPI", "context": "Thin real gain, eroding from 2025 peak"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A low jobless rate is masking a shrinking payroll base.", "body": "Milwaukee employment has declined year-over-year since April 2025 even as unemployment sits near 3%, a combination that typically reflects workforce exit rather than labor market strength. Commerce leaders citing the headline rate as evidence of robust local demand should pair it with the employment trend before drawing conclusions."}, {"headline": "Construction is the clearest pocket of real expansion.", "body": "The sector added roughly 3,400 jobs, a 9.6% year-over-year gain that outpaces nearly every other category in the metro and aligns with continued advertised-pay increases for electricians locally. That concentration suggests infrastructure and capital-project activity, not broad consumer or industrial demand, is driving what growth exists."}, {"headline": "Retail and manufacturing softness tracks the state pattern, not a local anomaly.", "body": "Metro retail and manufacturing contraction mirrors statewide declines of roughly 1% and 0.2% respectively, indicating this is a structural trend affecting Wisconsin broadly rather than a Milwaukee-specific disruption. Local economic development messaging should distinguish this national/state-driven softness from any metro-specific weakness."}, {"headline": "Wage gains in healthcare and skilled trades may outrun broader purchasing power.", "body": "Registered nurse and electrician pay are both rising locally even as Wisconsin's core inflation runs near 3.9% against roughly 4.2% forecast wage growth statewide, leaving only a thin real gain once inflation is applied. For government economists tracking consumer spending capacity, that margin is narrow enough to erode quickly if inflation ticks up further."}], "local_conditions": "Milwaukee-area employment has contracted on a year-over-year basis since spring 2025, even as the metro's unemployment rate holds roughly a percentage point below the national figure, a split consistent with a labor market that is tight but shrinking rather than expanding. Construction continues to add jobs at a pace well above the state average while manufacturing and retail payrolls contract, pointing to a metro economy where capital projects and freshwater-technology infrastructure are absorbing workers that goods-producing and consumer-facing sectors are shedding.", "implications": "Divergence between a low headline unemployment rate and ongoing payroll declines suggests the metro's labor supply is tightening for reasons beyond demand -- workforce participation and demographic exits appear to be constraining the pool at least as much as job creation is expanding it, a distinction that matters for anyone reading local unemployment figures as a simple growth signal. For commerce leaders weighing local investment, construction's 9.6% year-over-year expansion and continued advertised-pay gains for electricians and registered nurses indicate selective momentum in specific trades rather than a broad-based upswing, while softening retail and manufacturing postings argue against reading the low jobless rate as evidence of across-the-board strength. Current conditions suggest evaluating expansion or investment decisions sector-by-sector rather than against the metro's aggregate unemployment number alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development typically releases September MSA-level unemployment and payroll data in late October; this will be the first hard confirmation of whether the year-over-year employment decline persisted through late summer."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings in September touched employers with Wisconsin operations, including firms with distribution and logistics footprints; local economic development offices should track whether any translate into metro-specific notices beyond the 56 filed statewide so far in 2026."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wisconsin's Black unemployment rate of 7.2% in Q1 2026, roughly three times the white rate, is a labor force participation signal worth monitoring at the metro level as it bears directly on workforce development program targeting and equity-focused economic development funding."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth fell to 3.0% in September, its lowest since 2021, while inflation runs near 3.4%; if that gap persists into Milwaukee-area wage data due in coming weeks, it would mark the first real-wage erosion locally in roughly two years and merits attention from anyone modeling local consumer spending."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 31554.0, "metro_p75": 35890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25112.75, "metro_p50": 30330.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33535.0, "metro_p50": 39000.0, "metro_p75": 41808.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56726.0, "metro_p50": 75915.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30976.0, "metro_p50": 35173.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33420.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44616.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65720.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 86320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34894.0, "metro_p50": 40779.6, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26482.0, "metro_p50": 30379.4, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 44016.0, "metro_p75": 51480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35433.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49631.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61512.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88117.0, "metro_p50": 102461.4, "metro_p75": 113538.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106510.0, "metro_p50": 135200.0, "metro_p75": 148874.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90625.0, "metro_p50": 126265.0, "metro_p75": 143639.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60580.0, "metro_p50": 73281.4, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70750.0, "metro_p50": 92362.0, "metro_p75": 98200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62218.0, "metro_p50": 74307.0, "metro_p75": 83547.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51497.0, "metro_p50": 61047.2, "metro_p75": 69954.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 85176.0, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 46267.0, "metro_p75": 54386.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61016.0, "metro_p50": 86787.6, "metro_p75": 108488.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 41352.0, "metro_p50": 75109.6, "metro_p75": 84528.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78504.0, "metro_p50": 94465.0, "metro_p75": 105075.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36545.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55953.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 90000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 77101.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69671.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33862.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68070.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "milwaukee-waukesha-west-allis-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "milwaukee-waukesha-west-allis-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "milwaukee-waukesha-west-allis-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:07.781131+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/milwaukee-waukesha-west-allis-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/milwaukee-waukesha-west-allis-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}