{"schema_version": 1, "id": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 327, "label": "Midland, TX MSA", "slug": "midland-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:53:09.163431+00:00", "headline": "Midland labor force grows as Texas stalls statewide.", "headline_summary": "Midland's civilian labor force grew 1.4% to 108,200 even as Texas added just 3,600 net participants statewide, while the metro's 3.2% unemployment rate held the lowest among Texas metros.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Midland unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "Lowest in Texas; vs 4.4% state, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Midland labor force growth", "value": "+1.4%", "context": "106,700 to 108,200; Texas added net 3,600 statewide"}, {"label": "Midland payroll growth (YoY)", "value": "+3.3%", "context": "2nd-highest among US metros; triple TX state rate"}, {"label": "Texas statewide job growth", "value": "+1.1%", "context": "154,300 jobs over 12 months; YTD pace slowed to 0.8%"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Midland's labor force growth defies the statewide stall.", "body": "Texas added only 3,600 net labor force participants over the past year, yet Midland's civilian labor force grew by 1,500 in that same window \u2014 a divergence that points to localized demographic or migration dynamics tied to energy-sector activity."}, {"headline": "Payroll growth ranks second nationally, but concentration is the story.", "body": "Midland's 3.3% payroll growth between August 2025 and 2026 placed it second among all U.S. metros, driven by manufacturing and mining/construction gains tied to oil-and-gas activity, while professional services contracted 2.4% \u2014 a reminder that this expansion is concentrated in specific sectors of the local economy."}, {"headline": "Unemployment at 3.2% signals capacity constraints alongside strength.", "body": "Midland's unemployment rate, the lowest of any Texas metro, sits more than a full point below the state's 4.4% and national 4.1% figures, a gap that may suggest the local labor pool is operating near full utilization even as the labor force itself grows."}, {"headline": "Wage divergence across the metro basket tells an uneven story.", "body": "Registered Nurse ($106,148, up moderate) and Software Engineer ($162,173, up significant) advertised pay rose sharply locally, while Financial Analyst (-significant) and Warehouse Manager (-significant) posted notable declines \u2014 a pattern consistent with energy-and-healthcare-led growth alongside softening in professional and logistics management roles."}], "local_conditions": "Midland's 3.2% unemployment rate in September remained the lowest among Texas metros, as non-farm payrolls climbed to 129,800 (up 3.3% year-over-year through August), a pace that ranked second nationally and nearly tripled the statewide growth rate. Manufacturing (+4.2%) and mining, logging and construction (+0.9%) anchored the gains, consistent with continued energy-sector investment, while the civilian labor force expanded 1.4% to 108,200 even as Texas and national labor force growth stalled.", "implications": "Midland's labor force expansion stands apart from the statewide stall \u2014 Texas added just 3,600 net participants over the past year, while Midland alone added 1,500 \u2014 suggesting the metro is drawing workers even as broader regional supply tightens. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation decisions should weigh this against professional services' 2.4% year-over-year decline, a signal that growth remains concentrated in energy-adjacent sectors. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether labor force gains continue to outpace state and national trends, which would reinforce Midland's positioning as a counter-cyclical labor market within Texas.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Midland's labor force growth of 1.4% has outpaced the state's near-stall for two consecutive reporting periods. Commerce leaders should watch whether September's 108,200 figure holds or reverses, which would clarify whether the metro's growth is structural or a temporary deviation from the statewide trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Professional services employment fell 2.4% year-over-year even as headline payroll growth hit 3.3%, an early sign that non-energy sectors may be lagging. Watch whether this spreads to other white-collar categories, which would complicate the metro's narrative of broad-based strength."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide manufacturing momentum (4,700 jobs added in September, supported by oil/gas and AI-related construction) could extend Midland's 4.2% manufacturing growth further if energy capital spending holds through year-end. A pullback in crude prices or drilling activity would be the clearest signal to monitor for reversal."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated (3,860 notices through late October), but Texas WARN activity is down 35% year-over-year with no major Midland-specific filings reported this month. Continued absence of local layoff notices would reinforce the metro's relative insulation from national softening."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23608.0, "metro_p50": 30680.0, "metro_p75": 32709.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21450.0, "metro_p50": 25480.0, "metro_p75": 28708.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30969.0, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49920.0, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 83050.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30074.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33106.5, "metro_p50": 37114.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 80195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32257.75, "metro_p50": 40087.2, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27360.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 31110.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27943.25, "metro_p50": 32226.8, "metro_p75": 36960.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32842.0, "metro_p50": 42144.4, "metro_p75": 45270.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59158.75, "metro_p50": 67340.0, "metro_p75": 78070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81708.0, "metro_p50": 106148.2, "metro_p75": 117203.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120956.25, "metro_p50": 162173.0, "metro_p75": 170612.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96268.75, "metro_p50": 123909.0, "metro_p75": 136536.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56907.5, "metro_p50": 73785.0, "metro_p75": 77138.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65311.0, "metro_p50": 82344.4, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61709.0, "metro_p50": 94610.0, "metro_p75": 107234.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 61150.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30874.5, "metro_p50": 56601.2, "metro_p75": 63266.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65043.0, "metro_p50": 94423.6, "metro_p75": 110214.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70060.0, "metro_p50": 87361.0, "metro_p75": 90672.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67231.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70925.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34967.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60189.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 60400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53726.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 62558.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30787.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67273.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Midland's 3.2% unemployment rate was lowest in Texas in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Midland payroll growth ranked second nationally at 3.3% YoY through August"}, {"source_name": "Dallas Federal Reserve", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas labor force added only 3,600 net participants over past year"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas unemployment rate at 4.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission Labor Market Information", "source_url": null, "statement": "Midland manufacturing employment grew 4.2% while professional services fell 2.4%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:07.334189+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}