{"schema_version": 1, "id": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 327, "label": "Midland, TX MSA", "slug": "midland-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:57.935964+00:00", "headline": "Midland leads the nation on jobs, lags on wages.", "headline_summary": "Midland posted the lowest unemployment rate in Texas at 3.3% and the second-fastest metro payroll growth nationally at 3.3%, even as it was the only large Texas county to post a year-over-year wage decline, down 8.0% in Q3 2025.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Midland unemployment rate", "value": "3.3%", "context": "Lowest of any Texas metro, August 2026"}, {"label": "Midland payroll growth (YoY)", "value": "3.3%", "context": "2nd fastest among U.S. metros, behind Mankato, MN"}, {"label": "Midland avg. weekly wage change", "value": "-8.0%", "context": "Only decline among large TX counties, Q3 2025"}, {"label": "Texas statewide job growth", "value": "1.1%", "context": "vs Midland's 3.3% metro-level growth"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Midland's job growth outpaces the state and nearly all U.S. metros.", "body": "Non-farm payrolls rose 3.3% year-over-year, the second-fastest rate among metro areas nationally, while Texas overall grew 1.1%. That gap signals an economy still expanding on its own trajectory, somewhat insulated from the national slowdown to roughly 29,000 monthly job additions in September."}, {"headline": "A wage decline sits uneasily beside record-low unemployment.", "body": "Average weekly wages fell 8.0% year-over-year in Q3 2025, the only decline among large Texas counties, even as the metro added workers faster than almost anywhere in the country. That combination most likely reflects energy-sector pay volatility rather than a broad local slowdown, but it complicates any simple read on household purchasing power."}, {"headline": "Energy-sector swings continue to set the metro's economic tempo.", "body": "Midland's labor market remains anchored to oil and gas activity, meaning payroll and wage swings here move on a different cycle than the state's broader manufacturing and services rebound. Commerce leaders should treat Midland's numbers as a distinct, energy-linked story rather than a proxy for statewide momentum."}, {"headline": "Tight labor supply may be the real constraint on further expansion.", "body": "A 3.3% unemployment rate leaves little slack for employers seeking additional workers, consistent with the statewide pattern of manufacturers citing applicant shortages. Further payroll growth in Midland may depend more on labor force participation gains than on available job openings."}], "local_conditions": "Midland posted the lowest unemployment rate of any Texas metro for a second consecutive reading, 3.3% in August, while non-farm payrolls grew 3.3% year-over-year \u2014 the second-fastest pace among all U.S. metros, trailing only Mankato, Minnesota. That headline strength coexists with a documented wage anomaly: Midland was the only large Texas county to post a year-over-year decline in average weekly wages (-8.0% in Q3 2025), a divergence that appears tied to energy-sector pay volatility rather than broad-based softening.", "implications": "Payroll growth this strong, paired with the tightest labor market in the state, points to an economy still absorbing workers faster than most of Texas or the nation \u2014 a signal commerce leaders can cite as evidence the metro remains in expansion mode even as national job growth cools. The wage contraction, however, complicates that story for policy economists watching purchasing power, since a metro can show employment strength while household income growth lags, particularly if the decline is concentrated in high-paying energy roles rotating out of the wage base. Local economic development and chamber leaders should consider examining whether payroll growth is translating into broad-based income gains across sectors, or concentrated in lower-wage categories that would understate the metro's underlying purchasing-power trajectory.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Midland's Q4 2026 weekly-wage data confirms a rebound from the Q3 2025 decline or shows the drop persisting into a second year. A continued slide would suggest the softness extends beyond energy-price-driven volatility."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to prior months. Monitor whether Midland's outsized 3.3% payroll growth rate holds through year-end or converges toward the national deceleration."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Texas labor force participation (63.7%) continues to outpace the national rate (62.2%), but statewide labor force growth has slowed to roughly 10,900 added over the year. Track whether Midland's participation trend mirrors or diverges from this statewide tightening."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Energy prices and drilling activity remain the dominant swing factor for Midland payrolls and wages. Any shift in oil-price trajectory or rig-count data over the next two months is likely to show up first in Midland's wage figures before broader employment counts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23606.0, "metro_p50": 30586.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21345.25, "metro_p50": 25559.0, "metro_p75": 28065.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 41080.0, "metro_p75": 42707.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50328.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 83985.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30001.0, "metro_p50": 33114.4, "metro_p75": 39061.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32766.25, "metro_p50": 38012.8, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57420.5, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34137.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27650.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39949.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30750.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 32068.8, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32908.0, "metro_p50": 43333.0, "metro_p75": 46155.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60022.0, "metro_p50": 67340.0, "metro_p75": 75354.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81775.0, "metro_p50": 108164.4, "metro_p75": 119340.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 122885.0, "metro_p50": 162362.8, "metro_p75": 171449.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100351.5, "metro_p50": 123470.0, "metro_p75": 126461.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56948.25, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 76743.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67788.25, "metro_p50": 85038.4, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52230.0, "metro_p50": 87138.4, "metro_p75": 106339.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46677.0, "metro_p50": 60734.0, "metro_p75": 71585.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34119.0, "metro_p50": 57205.0, "metro_p75": 63500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69338.5, "metro_p50": 93024.8, "metro_p75": 110214.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70060.0, "metro_p50": 78974.0, "metro_p75": 87361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67233.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 66372.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35408.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64564.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 60082.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 58258.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 64208.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30001.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67574.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:05.956636+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/midland-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}