{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 326, "label": "MI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:48:43.370882+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Michigan's workforce shrinks even as unemployment holds steady.", "headline_summary": "Michigan's labor force fell 26,000 in a single month and 158,000 over the year, yet unemployment held at 5.0% \u2014 a gap that nonmetro regions like Northwest Lower Michigan, down 4.2% in labor force, are driving.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Michigan unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Unchanged in Sept.; 0.8 pts above 4.2% U.S. rate"}, {"label": "Michigan labor force change", "value": "-26,000", "context": "September monthly decline; -158,000 year-over-year"}, {"label": "Nonmetro regional employment decline", "value": "-3.9%", "context": "Northwest Lower Michigan, steepest among MI regions"}, {"label": "Local electrician advertised pay", "value": "$74,589", "context": "Up significantly vs. $71,835 national median"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force exit explains Michigan's flat unemployment rate.", "body": "Statewide labor force fell 26,000 in September and 158,000 over the year even as unemployment held at 5.0%, a pattern that nonmetro nine-region data shows is concentrated outside the state's largest metros. For a chamber or economic development corporation, this means headline unemployment understates how thin the available local workforce has become."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is pulling away from flatter clerical and retail categories.", "body": "Electrician ($74,589) and HVAC technician ($67,524) advertised pay both rose significantly locally, while administrative assistant and retail sales associate pay held stable. Divergence of this size is consistent with persistent capacity constraints in construction and building-trades work relevant to any local infrastructure or housing project timeline."}, {"headline": "Real wages are lagging inflation statewide and nationally.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth in Q3, while Michigan's broader salary growth sits near 3.3% \u2014 both below recent inflation readings. Softening purchasing power is a relevant input for local consumer spending forecasts rather than a hiring consideration."}, {"headline": "Nonmetro Michigan is cooling faster than the state as a whole.", "body": "Northwest Lower Michigan recorded a 3.9% employment decline and 4.2% labor force decline month-over-month, among the steepest of any Michigan labor market area. Regional economic development groups should treat this as an early signal that nonmetro conditions may be diverging from statewide averages reported in headline releases."}], "local_conditions": "Michigan's labor force contracted by 26,000 workers in September even as the statewide unemployment rate held at 5.0%, a pattern that appears concentrated across the state's nonmetropolitan labor market areas, where median employment declines reached 1.6% and labor force levels fell in all 18 tracked regions. Advertised pay for CDL truck drivers ($80,586, up moderately) and electricians ($74,589, up significantly) in this metro area outpaced national medians, consistent with constrained local labor supply in trades-dependent sectors even as softer categories like delivery driver pay ($31,200, down moderately) suggest uneven demand across the basket.", "implications": "Flat unemployment paired with a shrinking labor force signals that a shortage of available workers is shaping conditions for commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment \u2014 a dynamic distinct from the softening seen in Michigan's urban services and professional sectors. Wage strength concentrated in skilled trades (electrician, HVAC, CDL driving) points to where local business capacity is most constrained, a relevant signal for economic development planning and site-selection conversations. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials should track labor force participation trends alongside unemployment, since the latter alone understates the tightness facing trades-dependent and logistics-reliant local employers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Michigan's labor force has declined in every one of its 18 labor market areas year-over-year; watch whether October data shows this nonmetro region stabilizing or accelerating its decline relative to the 6.8% statewide median drop."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Skilled-trades pay (electrician, HVAC) is rising significantly against a stable national backdrop for several hourly categories \u2014 a signal economic development officials courting construction-dependent investment should track closely over the next two reporting cycles."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant", "body": "National WARN filings have reached 3,860 notices affecting over 340,000 workers year-to-date, while Michigan's WARN activity is down 33% from 2025; continued divergence would be a notable local resilience signal worth confirming against state filings."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide payroll employment dipped in Q3 with losses concentrated in services and professional/business services; whether this nonmetro region's sector mix (less services-heavy than urban Michigan) insulates it from further contraction is a question the next jobs report should help answer."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22622.0, "metro_p50": 28174.6, "metro_p75": 31054.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25952.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 30719.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31357.0, "metro_p50": 37365.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59656.5, "metro_p50": 80586.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27512.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34291.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32302.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 44023.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59271.0, "metro_p50": 74589.0, "metro_p75": 81352.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32205.0, "metro_p50": 37521.0, "metro_p75": 41360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28465.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32695.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32846.0, "metro_p50": 37727.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32993.5, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43133.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59846.0, "metro_p50": 67524.0, "metro_p75": 73188.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82503.0, "metro_p50": 100969.0, "metro_p75": 108847.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 118965.0, "metro_p50": 153582.0, "metro_p75": 171000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99163.25, "metro_p50": 142118.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58362.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 75437.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71691.25, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 100368.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51947.0, "metro_p50": 70789.0, "metro_p75": 82455.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43099.0, "metro_p50": 55853.0, "metro_p75": 68545.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 75349.0, "metro_p75": 92183.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40000.0, "metro_p50": 56180.0, "metro_p75": 62306.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60194.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 110492.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72365.0, "metro_p50": 92321.0, "metro_p75": 105406.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68255.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 94981.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 118956.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 95266.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 75367.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67179.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32911.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64815.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data and Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan labor force declined 26,000 in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data and Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan labor force fell 158,000 over the year"}, {"source_name": "Michigan Center for Data and Analytics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Northwest Lower Michigan employment fell 3.9%, labor force 4.2% month-over-month"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI in Q3 2026"}, {"source_name": "Michigan WARN Act tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan WARN notices down 33% from 2025, totaling 6,040 workers"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Michigan unemployment rate at 5.0%, 0.8 points above national rate"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:26:01.025299+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}