{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 326, "label": "MI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:32.297255+00:00", "headline": "Non-metro Michigan's workforce is shrinking faster than it's struggling.", "headline_summary": "Michigan's statewide workforce contracted 25,000 in August even as unemployment held at 5.0%, roughly 0.9 points above the national 4.1% rate, suggesting non-metro counties face a labor-supply story more than a job-search one.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Michigan unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, up from 4.9% in July"}, {"label": "Regional labor force decline", "value": "-7.0% median", "context": "Year-over-year, all 18 MI regions, through July 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide workforce contraction", "value": "-25,000", "context": "August 2026, matched by equal employment drop"}, {"label": "Manufacturing WARN impact", "value": "3,720 workers", "context": "33 notices statewide in 2026, sector concentrated"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Shrinking labor force, not joblessness, is the real story.", "body": "Michigan's unemployment rate held near 5.0% even as the workforce itself contracted 25,000 in August \u2014 people are exiting the labor force, not failing to find jobs. For non-metro counties already showing median labor-force declines of 7.0% year over year, this signals a structural capacity constraint rather than a cyclical demand problem."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is pulling away from goods-handling work.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly and HVAC technician pay moderately in the metro, while manufacturing production worker and delivery driver pay both declined. That divergence tracks the statewide pattern of cyclical-sector softness alongside selective demand for skilled, licensed trades."}, {"headline": "Michigan's jobless rate gap to the nation is widening, not closing.", "body": "State unemployment at 5.0% now sits roughly 0.9 points above the national 4.1%, with manufacturing the named driver of August's statewide job losses. Non-metro counties, more manufacturing-dependent on average, likely feel this gap more acutely than urban Michigan."}, {"headline": "Minimum wage step-up adds a known, scheduled cost variable.", "body": "Michigan's minimum wage rose to $13.73 in January 2026 and is set to reach $15.00 in January 2027 \u2014 a fixed, non-negotiable input for any commerce or workforce-planning calculus in the months ahead, independent of broader market softness."}], "local_conditions": "Michigan's non-metro counties sit inside a state labor market where all 18 regions posted year-over-year employment declines (median -6.3%) through July 2026, with regional labor force contracting a median 7.0% over the same period \u2014 a pattern consistent with statewide softening rather than a localized event. Statewide, employment fell 25,000 in August while the workforce itself shrank by the same amount, pushing unemployment to 5.0% even as participation erosion, not job-seeking difficulty, appears to be the primary driver.", "implications": "Falling labor force participation rather than rising joblessness is the more consequential signal for non-metro Michigan \u2014 it points to a shrinking available workforce base that constrains capacity for business expansion regardless of demand conditions. Advertised pay gains in skilled trades (electricians up significantly, HVAC techs up moderately) against flat-to-declining manufacturing and delivery wages locally suggests the regional economy is bifurcating between hands-on technical work and lower-skill, goods-handling roles. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or site-investment decisions should weigh workforce-availability data alongside demand forecasts, given that labor supply \u2014 not just local demand \u2014 now appears to be the binding constraint in much of the state's non-metro geography.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "October 20 brings September state unemployment data and October 28 brings metro-level figures \u2014 the first real test of whether August's workforce contraction was a one-month blip or the start of a deeper trend for non-metro counties."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing WARN notices (33 statewide, 3,720 workers affected) are concentrated in a sector already shedding jobs; watch whether non-metro counties see a proportional share given their heavier manufacturing exposure relative to Detroit or Grand Rapids."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Labor force participation trends will matter more than the headline unemployment rate for assessing whether non-metro Michigan has workers available to support any uptick in local investment or project activity."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped below inflation for the first time in two years (3.0% vs 3.4% CPI); if that dynamic persists into non-metro Michigan, consumer spending capacity \u2014 a key input for local retail and services activity \u2014 could soften further."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23419.0, "metro_p50": 28558.0, "metro_p75": 31339.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25740.0, "metro_p50": 29001.0, "metro_p75": 30638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36920.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 78877.0, "metro_p75": 90841.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27512.0, "metro_p50": 31595.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 38580.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58528.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 80080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31029.75, "metro_p50": 35000.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31781.5, "metro_p50": 37776.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28461.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32846.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43621.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31975.0, "metro_p50": 39091.0, "metro_p75": 42160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59846.0, "metro_p50": 66560.0, "metro_p75": 72127.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82500.0, "metro_p50": 100405.0, "metro_p75": 107761.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 116000.0, "metro_p50": 153295.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99187.0, "metro_p50": 143677.6, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58824.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 77717.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71895.0, "metro_p50": 88702.6, "metro_p75": 101426.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 76500.0, "metro_p75": 83567.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43363.0, "metro_p50": 57102.2, "metro_p75": 68909.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55468.25, "metro_p50": 75349.0, "metro_p75": 77782.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41326.0, "metro_p50": 57200.6, "metro_p75": 62767.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 110332.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48388.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 80378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76167.0, "metro_p50": 93994.6, "metro_p75": 107600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68312.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 96300.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36725.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 45968.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 119800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 105523.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 75324.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66540.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66370.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:33:00.369750+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mi-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}