{"schema_version": 1, "id": "merced-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 317, "label": "Merced, CA MSA", "slug": "merced-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:32.868863+00:00", "headline": "Merced unemployment eases, but stays near the nation's worst.", "headline_summary": "Merced County's jobless rate fell to 8.9% in October from 9.2% in June \u2014 still second-highest among 113 mid-sized U.S. metros \u2014 even as manufacturing pay climbed to $49,192, nearly 24% above the national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Merced unemployment rate", "value": "8.9%", "context": "Down from 9.2% in June; 2nd-highest of 113 metros"}, {"label": "Statewide unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "California, unchanged 3rd straight month (Sept.)"}, {"label": "Manufacturing worker pay, metro", "value": "$49,192", "context": "vs. $39,520 national median"}, {"label": "Local WARN filing", "value": "106 workers", "context": "Baloian Farms, effective Oct. 30"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment is falling, but Merced still trails nearly every metro peer.", "body": "The drop from 9.2% in June to 8.9% in October marks real progress, yet Merced remains the second-highest unemployment rate among 113 comparably sized U.S. labor markets. Commerce leaders should read this as gradual healing against a structurally difficult baseline, with normal conditions still some distance off."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay strength outpaces the nation by a wide margin.", "body": "Metro Manufacturing Production Worker pay sits at $49,192, nearly 24% above the $39,520 national median, while the sector trend reads 'up/moderate.' That gap is consistent with sustained local industrial demand, pointing beyond a one-month fluctuation."}, {"headline": "Farm-sector layoffs are a seasonal signal, not a trend reversal.", "body": "Baloian Farms' 106-worker WARN notice effective October 30 aligns with typical fall harvest-cycle adjustments in Central Valley agriculture. Government economists tracking labor force participation should expect this cohort to show up in short-term unemployment claims, with the county's broader employment base staying intact."}, {"headline": "Construction wage gains point to active local investment.", "body": "Construction Laborer advertised pay rose significantly to $44,200, outpacing the national figure's moderate gain to $40,727. That divergence is consistent with visible building activity in the metro and offers commerce leaders a tangible signal for assessing the pace of local capital projects."}], "local_conditions": "Merced County's unemployment rate eased to 8.9% in October, down from 9.2% in June, yet still ranks as the second-highest among 113 mid-sized U.S. metro labor forces, underscoring that the Central Valley's structural labor-market gap with the state and nation persists even as it narrows. Agricultural seasonality is a visible driver this month: Baloian Farms' WARN filing for 106 positions effective October 30 lands alongside continued advertised-pay strength in manufacturing and construction, pointing to a local economy where farm-adjacent volatility coexists with steadier industrial activity.", "implications": "Local economic recovery looks real but partial \u2014 a three-point improvement in unemployment since spring signals tightening local labor supply, which matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing and for economic development officials tracking whether gains are broad-based or concentrated in a few sectors. Construction Laborer pay rising significantly (to $44,200) alongside Manufacturing Production Worker gains (to $49,192, well above the $39,520 national median) suggests the metro's industrial base is absorbing workers at pay levels that outpace national peers, a sign of localized demand. Commerce leaders and policymakers should consider tracking whether this pay strength in manufacturing and construction reflects durable project pipelines (data centers, infrastructure) or short-term labor-supply tightness tied to the Baloian Farms layoff timing.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Seasonal signal", "body": "Watch whether Baloian Farms' October 30 layoffs show up as a temporary bump in county unemployment claims or persist into November, which would suggest broader agricultural-sector softness beyond normal harvest-cycle timing."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Track whether manufacturing and construction pay strength ($49,192 and $44,200 respectively) continues alongside falling unemployment \u2014 sustained divergence would suggest the metro's industrial base is driving the labor-market improvement, beyond population size alone."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant", "body": "State WARN disclosure rules (SB 951) now require employers to flag AI-driven layoffs; local economic development offices should note whether any Merced-area filings cite automation as a factor in coming quarters."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "California's statewide unemployment held at 5.1% for a third straight month even as the state shed 9,300 payroll jobs in September \u2014 watch whether Merced's improvement continues independent of, or in step with, this statewide stagnation."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34852.0, "metro_p50": 35932.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34190.25, "metro_p50": 38054.0, "metro_p75": 39416.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36523.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60838.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34542.0, "metro_p50": 35289.0, "metro_p75": 36482.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 44200.0, "metro_p75": 46280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61360.0, "metro_p50": 68089.0, "metro_p75": 71521.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46000.0, "metro_p50": 49192.0, "metro_p75": 50000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37275.75, "metro_p50": 41675.0, "metro_p75": 48859.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40308.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 45266.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63440.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 84207.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100880.0, "metro_p50": 129112.0, "metro_p75": 141172.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 129903.0, "metro_p50": 140805.0, "metro_p75": 143114.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 106585.0, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 162500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63440.0, "metro_p50": 90247.6, "metro_p75": 93028.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75208.0, "metro_p50": 75208.0, "metro_p75": 75208.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70997.5, "metro_p50": 81014.8, "metro_p75": 92921.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 70050.0, "metro_p75": 79850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81730.0, "metro_p50": 109470.8, "metro_p75": 129375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45404.0, "metro_p50": 64675.0, "metro_p75": 76420.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63750.0, "metro_p50": 71250.0, "metro_p75": 88918.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84847.75, "metro_p50": 101462.8, "metro_p75": 115397.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 82263.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40395.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 49088.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 74714.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57061.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 73870.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 108532.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 38002.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72745.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "merced-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "merced-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "merced-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:58.798366+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/merced-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/merced-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}