{"schema_version": 1, "id": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 342, "label": "Memphis, TN-AR-MS MSA", "slug": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:28.061712+00:00", "headline": "Memphis unemployment outpaces Tennessee as layoffs surge locally.", "headline_summary": "Memphis metro unemployment reached 4.6% and Shelby County hit 5%, both well above Tennessee's 3.4% statewide rate, while county layoffs jumped 341% in the first half of 2026.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Memphis metro unemployment", "value": "4.6%", "context": "vs 3.4% Tennessee, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Shelby County layoff surge", "value": "+341%", "context": "H1 2026 vs H1 2025"}, {"label": "Shelby County unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "July 2026, core of metro MSA"}, {"label": "Downtown office vacancy", "value": "17.6%", "context": "Q3 2026, up from prior quarter"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Memphis unemployment gap from the state is widening.", "body": "Metro unemployment of 4.6% and Shelby County's 5% sit well above Tennessee's 3.4%, a divergence that has grown over the past year even as the state holds near its lowest rate of 2026. That gap points to local structural factors driving Memphis conditions."}, {"headline": "Shelby County layoff activity has accelerated sharply this year.", "body": "Layoffs across Shelby County rose 341% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, a magnitude of change that outpaces anything visible in statewide WARN filings. Commerce leaders tracking local economic health should weigh this alongside the unemployment rate, since layoff volume often moves before the headline rate does."}, {"headline": "Logistics softness and financial services growth are both present downtown.", "body": "Federal Reserve Beige Book sourcing describes a Memphis financial firm adding staff while a logistics and distribution firm linked to residential construction reported softening activity and fuel-cost pressure on consumers. A metro built on distribution and FedEx-anchored logistics warrants watching this split closely, since it signals uneven conditions across sectors."}, {"headline": "Downtown job base has held steady despite rising office vacancy.", "body": "Office vacancy downtown rose to 17.6% in the third quarter, yet the core still supports roughly 68,400 primary jobs \u2014 18% of Memphis employment. Space market softness and employment stability can coexist short-term, but a widening vacancy trend is typically an early signal economic development leaders should monitor for secondary effects."}], "local_conditions": "Memphis metro unemployment climbed to 4.6% in August, a full percentage point above Tennessee's statewide 3.4% and above the national 4.1%, while Shelby County unemployment reached 5% in July and layoffs across the county surged 341% in the first half of 2026 versus a year earlier. Federal Reserve Beige Book reporting from the St. Louis district points to a split local economy: a Memphis financial services firm added staff while a logistics and distribution firm tied to residential construction described softening demand and consumer pullback linked to elevated fuel prices.", "implications": "Divergence between Memphis's elevated unemployment and Tennessee's tight statewide labor market signals that metro-level conditions should anchor local investment and expansion timing decisions. Downtown Memphis's resilience \u2014 68,400 primary jobs even as office vacancy rose to 17.6% \u2014 suggests commercial space softness has not yet translated into broad employment losses, a distinction worth tracking separately. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders evaluate sector-specific data (logistics, financial services, downtown core) to form a view of local business climate, treating the metro unemployment rate as one input among several.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Shelby County's unemployment rate (5% in July) and the metro's 4.6% August reading continue moving in the same direction into Q4 data releases, which would confirm a broader metro slowdown."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "The 341% year-over-year surge in Shelby County layoffs through mid-2026 warrants tracking for follow-through: whether displaced workers reappear in local job ad activity (a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings) or leave the labor force, affecting participation data economists and chambers rely on."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Residential construction and logistics softness, tied partly to fuel costs per Fed Beige Book sourcing, may spread to adjacent sectors given Memphis's distribution-economy base; fuel price trends over the next 60 days are a leading signal."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Downtown office vacancy at 17.6% is approaching a level where secondary effects on local retail and services employment typically emerge; next quarter's Downtown Memphis Commission data will indicate whether the trend is stabilizing or compounding."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23530.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38688.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62240.0, "metro_p50": 80080.0, "metro_p75": 90500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29499.0, "metro_p50": 32516.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33963.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32212.75, "metro_p50": 35612.2, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29324.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27821.25, "metro_p50": 30992.0, "metro_p75": 32403.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31060.75, "metro_p50": 33874.4, "metro_p75": 38460.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31238.25, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 52856.0, "metro_p75": 62667.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80438.0, "metro_p50": 98885.0, "metro_p75": 107570.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69822.0, "metro_p50": 135304.0, "metro_p75": 155582.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92741.0, "metro_p50": 118323.0, "metro_p75": 130300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53972.0, "metro_p50": 64601.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68325.0, "metro_p50": 86963.0, "metro_p75": 95460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54223.0, "metro_p50": 66235.6, "metro_p75": 73131.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 66339.0, "metro_p75": 71543.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66147.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 85726.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33966.0, "metro_p50": 56688.4, "metro_p75": 61714.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59542.0, "metro_p50": 84874.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50422.0, "metro_p50": 63495.8, "metro_p75": 68684.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74872.0, "metro_p50": 86448.8, "metro_p75": 97000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 74137.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38462.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 72800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59714.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52949.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 51872.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61714.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32176.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62514.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:56.448349+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}