{"schema_version": 1, "id": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 342, "label": "Memphis, TN-AR-MS MSA", "slug": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:07.693309+00:00", "headline": "Memphis sheds jobs as airport megaproject nears completion.", "headline_summary": "Shelby County unemployment held near 5% in July against Tennessee's 3.4%, even as the metro lost jobs at a 767-per-month average pace in 2026 while FedEx's $200 million airport modernization nears its late-2026 finish.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Shelby County unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs 3.4% Tennessee, 4.1% U.S. (July/Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Memphis monthly job losses", "value": "~767/month avg", "context": "4th-worst job growth pace since 2020"}, {"label": "Shelby County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,469", "context": "Q4 2025; employment fell 2.2% YoY same period"}, {"label": "Reported unfilled logistics positions", "value": "8,500", "context": "Amid FedEx's $200M airport modernization"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Memphis job losses deepen even as infrastructure spending rises.", "body": "Monthly job losses averaging 767 in 2026 mark the metro's fourth-worst stretch since 2020, occurring in parallel with FedEx's $200 million airport modernization. Capital investment and payroll growth are moving in opposite directions, a pattern worth flagging for anyone assessing the metro's underlying economic trajectory rather than headline project announcements alone."}, {"headline": "Unemployment gap between Memphis and Tennessee is widening, not closing.", "body": "Shelby County's 5% July unemployment rate sits well above the state's 3.4% and the metro's own June reading of 4.8%, a divergence that has persisted rather than narrowed. Statewide tightness is not translating into Memphis-specific labor market strength, a distinction that matters for anyone benchmarking local conditions against state-level economic narratives."}, {"headline": "Wage softening in logistics-adjacent roles tracks broader metro cooling.", "body": "Advertised pay for warehouse/fulfillment associates and delivery drivers moved down moderately this month, even as CDL truck driver pay held stable, consistent with uneven demand across the supply-chain workforce despite 8,500 reported unfilled logistics positions metro-wide. Pay softness in some logistics occupations alongside reported unfilled positions in others suggests the shortage is concentrated in specific technical skill categories, not the logistics sector broadly."}, {"headline": "Shelby County's wage trajectory lags healthcare and skilled-trade strength elsewhere.", "body": "Shelby County average weekly wages stood at $1,469 in Q4 2025, below Davidson County's 6.6% annual wage growth pace, even as local registered nurse pay rose moderately this month. Uneven wage momentum across the state's two largest counties is consistent with Nashville-Memphis divergence patterns reported at the state level, relevant context for economic development comparisons between the two metros."}], "local_conditions": "Memphis metro job losses persisted through mid-2026, averaging roughly 767 jobs shed per month, even as FedEx advances a $200 million modernization of its Memphis International Airport superhub scheduled for completion late this year. Shelby County unemployment held near 5% in July, nearly a full point above the state's 3.4%, consistent with a local economy where infrastructure investment and logistics activity are not yet translating into broad employment growth.", "implications": "Divergence between capital investment (the FedEx superhub project) and employment decline points to a local economy adding infrastructure capacity faster than it is adding payroll positions, a signal relevant to economic development planning and workforce pipeline investment rather than any single employer's staffing posture. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation decisions should treat Memphis unemployment running nearly a point above the state rate as a signal of slack labor supply paired with a persistent skills mismatch, particularly in logistics-adjacent technical roles. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether public workforce development programs are being directed toward aviation maintenance, robotics, and supply chain technology skill gaps that appear to be constraining the metro's return on its infrastructure spending.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "FedEx's Memphis International Airport modernization is scheduled for completion in late 2026; watch whether completion coincides with any measurable uptick in metro logistics or aviation-adjacent employment, or whether the capacity-workforce gap persists."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Shelby County unemployment has sat near or above 5% for multiple consecutive readings; a fourth or fifth month at this level would further separate Memphis from the state's 3.4% rate and merit scrutiny in year-end economic reviews."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN filings cite manufacturing, transportation and logistics as the most-affected Tennessee sectors this year; Memphis's concentration in trucking and distribution makes it worth monitoring for any new notices filed in or near Shelby County."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since 2021. Watch whether Memphis-specific wage data for sectors like healthcare and skilled trades continues to outperform this national erosion or begins to converge with it."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23570.0, "metro_p50": 30180.4, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29494.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31054.0, "metro_p50": 36187.6, "metro_p75": 38655.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60125.75, "metro_p50": 79414.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 32284.0, "metro_p75": 35954.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33160.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57672.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 76450.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32184.0, "metro_p50": 35362.4, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29904.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38837.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27879.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33696.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30990.0, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30735.0, "metro_p50": 38624.0, "metro_p75": 42500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51519.0, "metro_p50": 61484.0, "metro_p75": 61997.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81468.75, "metro_p50": 100946.0, "metro_p75": 110151.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96594.25, "metro_p50": 136942.0, "metro_p75": 155582.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91206.0, "metro_p50": 117854.2, "metro_p75": 131640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54666.0, "metro_p50": 64892.0, "metro_p75": 71417.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68361.5, "metro_p50": 86963.0, "metro_p75": 95460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54223.0, "metro_p50": 66224.8, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46436.5, "metro_p50": 66339.0, "metro_p75": 71688.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67956.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 85726.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 57023.0, "metro_p75": 61714.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 85806.6, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50835.0, "metro_p50": 66854.0, "metro_p75": 73610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74872.0, "metro_p50": 86209.4, "metro_p75": 97105.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58292.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 75851.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38356.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 71073.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59517.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53694.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 49696.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 59553.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63620.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:56.417302+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/memphis-tn-ar-ms-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}