{"schema_version": 1, "id": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 252, "label": "Medford, OR MSA", "slug": "medford-or-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:55:23.238332+00:00", "headline": "Medford's jobless rate outpaces the nation despite thousands of open positions.", "headline_summary": "Medford unemployment sat at 5.3% in May versus 4.1% nationally, even as Jackson County carried roughly 3,149 reported vacancies alongside a 270-job annual payroll decline.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Medford MSA unemployment rate", "value": "5.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% US rate (May 2026)"}, {"label": "Jackson County job vacancies", "value": "3,149", "context": "Fall 2025, against 5.1% county unemployment"}, {"label": "Jackson County annual payroll change", "value": "-270 jobs", "context": "Past 12 months, per regional economist Guy Tauer"}, {"label": "Oregon wage growth rank, 2020-2026", "value": "30th nationally", "context": "Down from historical top-5 status"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Medford's unemployment gap with the nation is widening.", "body": "Metro unemployment stood at 5.3% in May versus a national rate of 4.1%, and Medford ranked 11th highest among 113 similarly sized metro labor markets. That gap has persisted for months, suggesting a local-specific drag that will not self-correct as a lagging indicator would."}, {"headline": "Open positions and job losses are coexisting, an unusual combination.", "body": "Jackson County reported 3,149 vacancies in fall 2025 even as it shed 270 payroll jobs over the year, a pattern consistent with skills or geographic mismatch. That distinction matters for how workforce boards and economic development officials frame the problem to the public."}, {"headline": "Health care is the metro's most reliable growth engine right now.", "body": "Statewide, health care and social assistance added 12,100 jobs over the year, a 3.8% increase, while manufacturing shed 4,300 and government fell by 4,000. Medford's own health care advertised pay for roles like registered nurses ($120,744, up moderately) and nursing assistants ($52,018, up moderately) tracks that momentum, reinforcing health systems as the sector commerce leaders should watch most closely for local spending and employment signals."}, {"headline": "Oregon's wage slide is a sustained competitiveness story.", "body": "Oregon has fallen to 30th nationally in cumulative wage growth since 2020, with $73 billion in aggregate missing wages estimated through 2026. For a border-adjacent metro like Medford competing for investment and workers against California and Washington, this trend is a relevant backdrop for any conversation about regional business attraction."}], "local_conditions": "Medford's labor market remains softer than the national pace, with the metro's unemployment rate at 5.3% in May 2026 against the 4.1% US rate, and Jackson County down 270 payroll jobs over the past year as manufacturing and retail contract. Construction, health care and leisure gains at the state level offer some offset, but a civilian labor force that grew through early 2026 alongside elevated vacancies (3,149 open positions reported in fall 2025 against 5.1% county unemployment) points to a mismatch between available workers and employer needs.", "implications": "Persistent vacancy-unemployment mismatch suggests Medford's slower-than-national recovery is structural, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders calibrate expansion timing and public officials target workforce investment. Health care's continued strength locally (consistent with the state's 3.8% annual sector growth) stands against contraction in manufacturing and retail, meaning the metro's overall job count can look flat while sector fortunes diverge sharply underneath. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber leaders should track which sectors are absorbing displaced manufacturing and retail workers before describing the metro's momentum in aggregate terms.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS metro-level unemployment data for October will not post until mid-November; Jackson County monthly figures remain the most current proxy in the interim. Government economists tracking the metro should flag this lag when briefing local officials on current conditions."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "PacificSource's fourth round of layoffs since September 2025, including Springfield, Bend, Salem and Portland positions effective Dec. 31, signals continued disruption in Oregon's health insurance sector even as direct patient-care health jobs expand. Worth tracking whether this divergence within health care shows up in Jackson County's own WARN filings."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Oregon's minimum wage rises to $15.55 (standard) and $14.55 (nonurban) effective July 2026, a 50-cent increase tied to CPI; Medford falls under the nonurban rate. Retail and food service advertised pay locally already shows softening (Retail Sales Associate and Food Service Worker both trending down), so commerce leaders should watch whether the mandated increase narrows or widens that gap over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Construction advertised pay in Medford is trending down even as the statewide sector added 2,000 jobs in September, a divergence worth monitoring given construction's role as a bellwether for local investment activity and housing supply decisions."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28775.0, "metro_p50": 33401.4, "metro_p75": 36858.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31431.0, "metro_p50": 33688.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36047.0, "metro_p50": 41567.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59600.5, "metro_p50": 75500.0, "metro_p75": 84000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32515.0, "metro_p50": 34800.0, "metro_p75": 35572.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40528.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63486.25, "metro_p50": 81998.2, "metro_p75": 86676.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33584.75, "metro_p50": 37805.6, "metro_p75": 38182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39314.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31328.25, "metro_p50": 32791.2, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43943.0, "metro_p50": 52018.0, "metro_p75": 53633.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65520.0, "metro_p50": 76960.0, "metro_p75": 83274.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98039.0, "metro_p50": 120744.0, "metro_p75": 132500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87116.0, "metro_p50": 122720.4, "metro_p75": 155377.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99902.0, "metro_p50": 140971.0, "metro_p75": 156063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59637.5, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 82135.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71095.75, "metro_p50": 80214.4, "metro_p75": 95604.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61827.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53500.0, "metro_p50": 68208.0, "metro_p75": 79713.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74251.25, "metro_p50": 84721.6, "metro_p75": 97465.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 67911.2, "metro_p75": 69787.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 80020.2, "metro_p75": 93874.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 89000.0, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 82917.0, "metro_p50": 94801.8, "metro_p75": 106024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62204.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 67315.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37658.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 60320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50325.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 63826.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 65960.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68956.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "USAFacts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Medford MSA unemployment at 5.3% in May 2026"}, {"source_name": "KOBI-TV NBC5", "source_url": null, "statement": "Jackson County lost 270 payroll jobs over past year"}, {"source_name": "KOBI-TV NBC5", "source_url": null, "statement": "Jackson County had 3,149 job vacancies in fall 2025"}, {"source_name": "USAFacts / BLS metro comparison", "source_url": null, "statement": "Medford ranked 11th highest unemployment among 113 similar metros"}, {"source_name": "Oregon Employment Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oregon health care added 12,100 jobs, 3.8% annual growth"}, {"source_name": "Oregon WARN Act filing", "source_url": null, "statement": "PacificSource layoffs of 134 workers effective Dec. 31, 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:54.271775+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}