{"schema_version": 1, "id": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 252, "label": "Medford, OR MSA", "slug": "medford-or-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:03.288663+00:00", "headline": "Medford unemployment climbs to 6.3% as hiring stalls, not collapses.", "headline_summary": "Medford MSA unemployment rose to 6.3% in August from 5.3% in May, now running roughly two points above the 4.1% national rate, even as job postings in warehouse and construction roles show genuine local wage strength.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Medford MSA unemployment", "value": "6.3%", "context": "Up from 5.3% in May; vs 4.1% national, 5.1% Oregon"}, {"label": "Medford 2026 job growth pace", "value": "~50 jobs/month", "context": "Zero net jobs added in June 2026"}, {"label": "Oregon statewide unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "4th-highest among states per BLS"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "First sustained real-wage decline in two years"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Medford's unemployment gap with the nation is widening, not narrowing.", "body": "Local unemployment rose to 6.3% in August from 5.3% in May, while national unemployment held near 4.1%. The gap of roughly 2 full points signals the metro is lagging the national recovery rather than tracking it."}, {"headline": "Flat hiring, not mass layoffs, defines the current slowdown.", "body": "Medford added essentially zero jobs in June and has averaged only 50 jobs per month in 2026, a stalling pattern rather than a collapse. This mirrors Oregon's statewide 'low-hire, low-fire' description, suggesting caution rather than distress is driving employer behavior."}, {"headline": "Blue-collar wage gains are outpacing white-collar roles locally.", "body": "Construction laborer and warehouse/fulfillment pay rose moderately to significantly in Medford even as accountant, financial analyst, operations manager, and marketing specialist pay all declined. This split tracks the national divergence between hands-on sectors and office-based work, and may signal where local labor remains genuinely scarce."}, {"headline": "Healthcare pay strength reflects a statewide, not just local, pattern.", "body": "Registered nurse pay in Medford sits well above the national median ($118,557 vs $102,581), consistent with Oregon's 3.5% statewide healthcare job growth over the past year. Commerce and workforce planners should treat healthcare as the metro's most dependable growth sector heading into the fourth quarter."}], "local_conditions": "Medford MSA unemployment climbed to 6.3% in August, up from 5.3% in May, pulling further away from the Oregon statewide rate of 5.1% and the national rate of 4.1%, even as hiring activity stayed flat with zero net job change in June and just 50 jobs added monthly on average for 2026 year-to-date. Divergent sector signals are at work locally and nationally: construction and retail trade posted modest Oregon gains while manufacturing and professional/business services continued shedding positions, a split that is consistent with the warehouse/fulfillment wage jump and construction laborer pay increase appearing in Medford's advertised-pay data this month.", "implications": "Rising local unemployment alongside flat job creation points to a metro economy absorbing labor-force slack rather than expanding payrolls, a dynamic that commerce leaders should read as a signal to pace investment decisions to demand rather than labor availability, since workers appear easier to find than in the past two years. Sector divergence between weakening manufacturing and office-based roles versus resilient healthcare, construction, and hospitality activity suggests expansion plans may fare differently depending on sector exposure; current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials consider monitoring sector-specific job-posting trends before using metro-wide averages to gauge local business climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "September county and metro unemployment figures for Medford publish October 20 via BLS. This will show whether August's jump to 6.3% was a one-month event or the start of a sustained climb."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Oregon's professional and business services sector lost 1,100 jobs in August alone, the state's largest single-sector decline. Watch whether Medford's office-based employment follows the statewide pattern or holds steady, given the metro's smaller base in this sector."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National WARN filings remain below year-ago levels (313,234 affected workers in 2026 tracking versus comparable 2025 figures), and Oregon's six-month WARN average has fallen to 261 notices. A continuation of this trend would support the case that Medford's unemployment rise reflects labor-force dynamics rather than a layoff wave."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% annually against 3.4% inflation, the first sustained real-wage decline in two years. If this persists, consumer spending softness could show up in Medford retail and hospitality activity before year-end."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28500.5, "metro_p50": 33993.0, "metro_p75": 36858.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31072.5, "metro_p50": 33384.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36446.25, "metro_p50": 42590.2, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59952.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 83336.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31931.0, "metro_p50": 33675.0, "metro_p75": 35142.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 46280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66005.5, "metro_p50": 76049.4, "metro_p75": 83231.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 35837.6, "metro_p75": 38182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38500.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31643.25, "metro_p50": 33623.8, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42749.0, "metro_p50": 51174.0, "metro_p75": 52260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 42931.0, "metro_p75": 46959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65353.0, "metro_p50": 75920.0, "metro_p75": 81230.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96720.0, "metro_p50": 118557.0, "metro_p75": 130431.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89777.75, "metro_p50": 126431.2, "metro_p75": 155377.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 101502.0, "metro_p50": 142002.0, "metro_p75": 155413.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57740.5, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71095.75, "metro_p50": 83777.6, "metro_p75": 98631.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61826.0, "metro_p50": 75920.0, "metro_p75": 83652.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42308.0, "metro_p50": 48655.2, "metro_p75": 50000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73495.0, "metro_p50": 84271.0, "metro_p75": 95505.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49002.0, "metro_p50": 68697.0, "metro_p75": 69916.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55451.0, "metro_p50": 78560.0, "metro_p75": 80102.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 79475.2, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 82917.0, "metro_p50": 94848.0, "metro_p75": 104114.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 65520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 68177.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37742.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48677.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 63826.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34424.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69489.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:54.464153+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/medford-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}