{"schema_version": 1, "id": "md-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 259, "label": "MD NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "md-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:51:47.372974+00:00", "headline": "Maryland's jobless rate hits a 17-month low \u2014 but payrolls tell another story.", "headline_summary": "Maryland unemployment fell to 3.9% in September, a 17-month low, even as the state shed 20,100 payroll jobs over August and September combined, with labor force participation holding firm at 63.7% against a national 61.8%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Maryland unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "Lowest since April 2025, vs 4.2% national"}, {"label": "Maryland payroll change (Aug-Sep)", "value": "-20,100 jobs", "context": "BLS cites data-collection volatility as factor"}, {"label": "Labor force participation (MD)", "value": "63.7%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate"}, {"label": "Small business job-creation intent", "value": "Net 17%", "context": "Unchanged from August (NFIB)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment and payroll data are telling different stories.", "body": "Maryland's jobless rate fell to a 17-month low of 3.9% even as the state shed 20,100 payroll jobs across August and September combined. State labor officials point to BLS collection volatility as the likely factor behind the payroll figures, so nonmetro leaders should weight participation and wage trends more heavily than any single payroll print this cycle."}, {"headline": "Participation strength is the quiet positive story statewide.", "body": "Maryland's 63.7% labor force participation rate sits nearly two points above the national 61.8%, indicating residents \u2014 including in nonmetro counties \u2014 are staying attached to the workforce despite headline payroll noise. That resilience is a more durable signal for long-run local economic capacity than any one month's job count."}, {"headline": "Small-business expansion intent is holding steady.", "body": "A seasonally adjusted net 17% of Maryland small business owners plan to add jobs in the next three months, unchanged from August, while the share reporting skilled-worker openings fell 4 points. That pattern reads as steady caution, useful context for commerce leaders gauging whether local business sentiment is cooling or holding in place."}, {"headline": "Wage divergence by sector reflects federal and defense exposure.", "body": "St. Mary's County's elevated average weekly wage ($1,708) relative to other smaller Maryland counties underscores how federal and defense-adjacent employment anchors wage levels in parts of nonmetro Maryland. That concentration also means local economic momentum in those counties is more sensitive to federal budget and contracting decisions than to broader private-sector demand."}], "local_conditions": "Maryland's nonmetropolitan counties operate within a state labor market showing falling headline unemployment (3.9% in September, down 0.2 points and the lowest since April 2025) alongside payroll volatility that state officials attribute partly to data collection issues. Rural and smaller-county Maryland remains anchored by federal and defense-adjacent employment \u2014 St. Mary's County's $1,708 average weekly wage reflects that concentration \u2014 while statewide labor force participation holds at 63.7%, well above the 61.8% national rate, suggesting nonmetro residents remain engaged even as payroll counts swing.", "implications": "Falling unemployment paired with payroll softness and reporting volatility means commerce leaders should treat any single month's job count with caution and look to participation and wage trends for a clearer read on local economic footing. Strength in defense/federal-adjacent wages alongside statewide NFIB data showing flat small-business job creation plans (net 17%, unchanged from August) points to a labor market that is stable, with a climate better suited to steady investment than aggressive expansion. Current conditions suggest monitoring participation and wage data over the next two reporting cycles before drawing conclusions from any single payroll print.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data reliability watch", "body": "BLS has flagged heightened volatility in employer-survey estimates across several states this fall; expect Maryland's next payroll revision to clarify whether the August-September job losses were real or a reporting artifact. Commerce leaders citing state job figures publicly should flag this caveat alongside any count."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "November and December county-level unemployment data (due with the typical lag) will show whether Maryland's lowest-unemployment counties, including rural ones, are holding gains or converging toward the Baltimore city rate of 5.5%, the state's current high."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal workforce reductions and deferred-resignation programs cited in national data could ripple into nonmetro Maryland counties with defense and federal contracting exposure; watch WARN filings and St. Mary's/Southern Maryland wage data for early signs."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide NFIB sentiment next reads in November will show whether flat small-business hiring intent (net 17%) holds, rises, or softens further \u2014 a leading indicator for nonmetro business investment appetite heading into 2027."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30205.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32344.0, "metro_p50": 37593.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62785.0, "metro_p50": 89700.0, "metro_p75": 94900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30781.0, "metro_p50": 33490.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37010.0, "metro_p50": 37096.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61397.0, "metro_p50": 75975.0, "metro_p75": 79252.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33848.0, "metro_p50": 36994.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30658.0, "metro_p50": 34409.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35880.0, "metro_p50": 39780.0, "metro_p75": 45583.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36920.0, "metro_p50": 45791.0, "metro_p75": 52500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67133.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88379.0, "metro_p50": 109272.0, "metro_p75": 118999.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113650.0, "metro_p50": 135000.0, "metro_p75": 145890.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101219.0, "metro_p50": 142500.0, "metro_p75": 164131.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63856.0, "metro_p50": 74901.0, "metro_p75": 79431.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80580.0, "metro_p50": 108645.2, "metro_p75": 119250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61449.0, "metro_p50": 74071.6, "metro_p75": 77000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50576.0, "metro_p50": 70000.8, "metro_p75": 80677.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73087.5, "metro_p50": 94521.6, "metro_p75": 100869.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47840.0, "metro_p50": 62294.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63482.0, "metro_p50": 77453.0, "metro_p75": 77453.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 50960.0, "metro_p75": 62990.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104020.5, "metro_p50": 113713.0, "metro_p75": 113713.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 95200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65942.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 55748.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56992.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 101450.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 81120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33808.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68639.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Maryland Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Maryland unemployment fell to 3.9% in September, lowest since April 2025"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Maryland lost 20,100 payroll jobs in August and September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Maryland labor force participation rate at 63.7% vs 61.8% national"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (via USA Facts)", "source_url": null, "statement": "St. Mary's County average weekly wage of $1,708 reflects federal/defense concentration"}, {"source_name": "National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Net 17% of small businesses plan to create jobs in next three months"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Maryland Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS employer survey data shows heightened volatility across several states"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "md-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "md-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "md-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:49.893889+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/md-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/md-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}