{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 249, "label": "McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA", "slug": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:54:34.749185+00:00", "headline": "McAllen job growth holds while service-sector payrolls quietly contract.", "headline_summary": "McAllen-Edinburg-Mission unemployment rose to 6.5% in October and service-providing payrolls contracted 3.17% annually even as the metro added 4,200 jobs and construction employment grew 3.1%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "6.5%", "context": "Up from 5.6% in Sept.; vs 4.1% national, 4.4% Texas"}, {"label": "Service-sector payroll trend", "value": "-3.17%", "context": "Annualized contraction, Aug. 2026 (Dallas Fed/FRED)"}, {"label": "Metro job growth", "value": "+4,200 jobs / 1.38%", "context": "vs 1.1% Texas, 0.3% national annual growth"}, {"label": "Texas labor force growth", "value": "3,600 net adds (12 mo.)", "context": "Statewide stall cited by Dallas Fed as structural headwind"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment jump reflects a seasonal pattern.", "body": "Rate moved from 5.6% to 6.5% in a single month, consistent with the Valley's recurring seasonal employment volatility. Press and policy readers should frame this as typical regional cyclicality within trend."}, {"headline": "Construction is the metro's clearest growth engine right now.", "body": "Construction employment grew 3.1% annually with 600 jobs added, and CDL Truck Driver pay locally rose to a $88,400 median, above the national figure of $78,872 \u2014 a sign that freight and materials movement tied to building activity carry real wage leverage. That combination points to infrastructure and building activity as the most defensible bright spot for local investment conversations."}, {"headline": "Service-sector contraction is the story under the headline job gain.", "body": "Service-providing payrolls fell at a -3.17% annual rate in August even as total nonfarm employment rose, meaning the metro's net job growth is masking retrenchment in a sector that typically anchors consumer spending and tourism-adjacent revenue. Commerce leaders evaluating retail or hospitality investment should weigh this divergence before reading the overall growth number as a green light."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation is a number to track alongside unemployment.", "body": "Texas's statewide labor force grew by only 3,600 net participants over the past year, a stall the Dallas Fed links to slowing immigration-driven labor supply \u2014 a dynamic with direct relevance to a border metro's available workforce. Local economic development conversations should separate the question of jobs added from the question of whether the labor pool is growing to fill them."}], "local_conditions": "McAllen-Edinburg-Mission posted a 6.5% unemployment rate in October, up from 5.6% in September, as seasonal agricultural and trade-cycle patterns compound structural softness tied to a Dallas Fed-projected sub-1% growth ceiling for the Rio Grande Valley. Construction (23.3% of metro employment, up 3.1% annually) and government (13.3%, up 2.7%) are carrying the metro's 1.38% annual job growth even as service-providing payrolls contracted at a -3.17% annual rate in August, pointing to uneven momentum beneath a headline gain of 4,200 jobs.", "implications": "Construction and professional/business services (up 6.3% year-over-year) signal where local commercial activity is expanding, while contracting service-sector payrolls and a trade/transportation/utilities pullback (-0.5% annually) suggest consumer-facing segments of the economy are cooling even as the topline job count rises. For commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing, the divergence between construction/government stability and service-sector softness argues for a sector-specific read alongside the single metro-wide verdict. Current conditions suggest monitoring trade and hospitality indicators separately from construction and public-sector data before drawing conclusions about overall business climate strength.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Seasonal unemployment typically eases in the Valley as agricultural and trade-cycle hiring normalize into winter months; watch whether the rate retreats toward the 5.6% September level or holds elevated into Q1."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Service-providing payroll contraction (-3.17% annualized) bears watching for a second consecutive month, which would mark a trend and would matter for retail and hospitality-dependent tax bases."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Texas's stalled labor force growth (just 3,600 net new participants statewide over the past year) is a structural signal for a border metro whose labor supply has historically depended on cross-border and immigrant labor flows; any further slowing would narrow the available workforce for the metro's advertising construction and trade sectors."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Dallas Fed's downgraded 2026 Texas job growth forecast (0.9%, down from 2.0%) suggests statewide deceleration could pull McAllen's growth rate \u2014 already below the state's 1.1% pace \u2014 lower still; local economic development messaging should track whether the state-level downgrade shows up in metro data over the next two reporting cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22247.0, "metro_p50": 26861.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20800.0, "metro_p50": 23679.0, "metro_p75": 26031.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 31001.0, "metro_p75": 32858.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55046.0, "metro_p50": 88400.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27875.0, "metro_p50": 30323.0, "metro_p75": 32231.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 28139.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46024.0, "metro_p50": 60910.0, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24613.0, "metro_p50": 30053.0, "metro_p75": 31949.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27724.0, "metro_p50": 33364.0, "metro_p75": 36427.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26889.0, "metro_p50": 30313.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29175.0, "metro_p50": 33404.0, "metro_p75": 40086.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26527.0, "metro_p50": 32023.0, "metro_p75": 35947.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46849.0, "metro_p50": 52295.0, "metro_p75": 56251.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77604.0, "metro_p50": 91667.4, "metro_p75": 96668.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90533.0, "metro_p50": 141508.4, "metro_p75": 162500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57615.0, "metro_p50": 141395.2, "metro_p75": 160411.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49245.0, "metro_p50": 55250.0, "metro_p75": 57419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64339.0, "metro_p50": 77332.0, "metro_p75": 87269.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38584.0, "metro_p50": 51428.4, "metro_p75": 55742.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35607.0, "metro_p50": 42038.0, "metro_p75": 52500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39208.0, "metro_p50": 56500.0, "metro_p75": 57750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32424.25, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 85801.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41188.0, "metro_p50": 69159.8, "metro_p75": 80227.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 50939.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 63645.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35890.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 69341.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 39935.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 43340.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 53219.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60412.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "McAllen-Edinburg-Mission unemployment rate rose to 6.5% in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Service-providing payroll employment contracted -3.17% annually in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction employment grew 3.1% annually, adding 600 jobs"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas labor force added only 3,600 net participants over past year"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dallas Fed downgraded 2026 Texas job growth forecast to 0.9%"}, {"source_name": "Rio Grande Valley Business Journal", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro added 4,200 jobs through September 2026, 1.38% annual growth"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:47.542477+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}