{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 249, "label": "McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA", "slug": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:58.801522+00:00", "headline": "McAllen's jobless rate holds near 5.7% as state wages pull ahead.", "headline_summary": "Hidalgo County wages grew just 3.3% over the year versus a 5.9% statewide jump in Texas hourly earnings, while McAllen's 5.7% unemployment rate remains well above the state's 4.0% and the nation's 4.1%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "5.7%", "context": "vs 4.0% Texas, 4.1% U.S. (July 2026)"}, {"label": "Hidalgo County wage growth", "value": "3.3% YoY", "context": "vs 5.9% Texas statewide hourly earnings growth"}, {"label": "Hidalgo County labor force", "value": "407,900", "context": "Up from 380,300 employed, August 2026"}, {"label": "Hidalgo County avg weekly wage", "value": "$884", "context": "vs $1,646 Texas statewide average (Q4 2025)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "McAllen's jobless rate still runs well above state and national lines.", "body": "July's 5.7% unemployment rate compares with Texas's 4.0% and the national 4.1%, continuing a structural pattern rather than a new development. A larger labor force (407,900 in August) alongside a stubbornly elevated jobless rate points to supply outpacing local job creation, a dynamic distinct from the tight-labor-market story playing out in much of the rest of Texas."}, {"headline": "Wage growth lags the state badly, not just the nation.", "body": "Hidalgo County's 3.3% annual wage gain trails the statewide 5.9% jump in average hourly earnings and the Dallas Fed's reported 3.9% Texas private-sector wage growth. Widening divergence from state-level pay trends may suggest the metro's cost-of-living advantage is also becoming a wage disadvantage for attracting mobile talent and retail spending power."}, {"headline": "CDL driver pay bucks the regional softness.", "body": "Local CDL Truck Driver advertised pay rose to a metro median of $89,241, moderately up and notably ahead of the $78,000 national median \u2014 a rare instance of local pay outperforming the nation. This points to continued freight and logistics activity tied to cross-border trade through the McAllen-Hidalgo-Reynosa corridor, a sector worth watching given its sensitivity to tariff policy."}, {"headline": "Falling pay in entry-level roles signals softening consumer-facing demand.", "body": "Retail Cashier, Delivery Driver, and Manufacturing Production Worker pay all declined locally this month even as national medians for the same roles held stable. Divergence from the national pattern suggests metro-specific softening in entry-level labor demand rather than a broader national trend, a signal worth tracking for retail and logistics investment decisions."}], "local_conditions": "McAllen-Edinburg-Mission's unemployment rate held at 5.7% in July, nearly 40% above the national 4.1% reading, even as Hidalgo County's labor force expanded to 407,900 in August, evidence that population and workforce growth continue to outpace job creation in the metro. Wage growth across the region remains modest relative to statewide gains \u2014 Hidalgo County average weekly wages rose 3.3% year-over-year in Q4 2025 to $884, well under the Texas statewide average weekly wage of $1,646 \u2014 while Texas hourly earnings statewide jumped 5.9% to $36.37, pointing to a widening pay gap between the Rio Grande Valley and the rest of the state.", "implications": "Persistent double-digit-adjacent unemployment alongside labor force growth suggests the metro has ample worker availability, a sharp contrast to the tight labor supply constraining expansion elsewhere in Texas, which may position McAllen favorably for firms facing recruitment headwinds in Dallas, Austin, or Houston. At the same time, the wide wage gap versus state and national medians \u2014 visible across advertised pay for warehouse, delivery, and manufacturing roles \u2014 signals that local purchasing power and consumer spending capacity remain constrained relative to statewide momentum. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider evaluating whether current wage trajectories are sufficient to retain workers as regional employers elsewhere raise pay faster.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Seasonal hiring for graders, sorters, and packers that began in August typically runs through April, tied to the Valley's agricultural and produce distribution cycle. Watch whether this season's volume and pay levels hold against last year's as an early read on logistics-sector health heading into 2027."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Cross-border trade and tariff policy remain a structural driver of the metro's logistics and warehousing employment given McAllen's position on a major Texas-Mexico trade corridor. Any federal tariff or enforcement policy shifts should be tracked as bare economic facts affecting freight volume, independent of political framing."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "The gap between Hidalgo County wage growth (3.3%) and the statewide figure (5.9%) has been widening, not narrowing. If the trend continues through year-end data releases, it raises a policy-relevant question about whether the metro's labor market is converging with or diverging from the broader Texas recovery."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National layoff activity remains historically low, but federal WARN filings from large employers like Amazon and FedEx continue to make headlines nationally. Local economic development officials should monitor whether any similar-scale notices appear in Hidalgo or Cameron county filings in coming weeks, as the state's 91 WARN notices to date remain concentrated in transportation and manufacturing."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22408.0, "metro_p50": 26853.8, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20800.0, "metro_p50": 23527.4, "metro_p75": 25992.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 30070.0, "metro_p75": 32832.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55224.0, "metro_p50": 89241.0, "metro_p75": 101400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26674.0, "metro_p50": 30322.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24134.5, "metro_p50": 28139.0, "metro_p75": 30706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 65428.0, "metro_p75": 71345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25068.75, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 33358.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27674.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35734.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26472.75, "metro_p50": 30313.0, "metro_p75": 30978.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29099.0, "metro_p50": 33929.0, "metro_p75": 40671.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26962.0, "metro_p50": 32023.0, "metro_p75": 36001.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46849.0, "metro_p50": 51355.0, "metro_p75": 57613.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77603.0, "metro_p50": 90302.0, "metro_p75": 96668.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103485.0, "metro_p50": 149630.0, "metro_p75": 168829.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82847.0, "metro_p50": 146465.2, "metro_p75": 160324.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50674.0, "metro_p50": 55145.0, "metro_p75": 57419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65044.0, "metro_p50": 86421.0, "metro_p75": 98034.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36703.0, "metro_p50": 48314.0, "metro_p75": 54000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35025.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42514.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38582.5, "metro_p50": 56639.0, "metro_p75": 57750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33890.5, "metro_p50": 74781.6, "metro_p75": 90732.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54505.5, "metro_p50": 75554.8, "metro_p75": 93482.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57404.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 66427.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35890.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65926.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 120334.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 42148.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 43587.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52002.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 26978.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61658.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:48.632391+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mcallen-edinburg-mission-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}