{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mansfield-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 274, "label": "Mansfield, OH MSA", "slug": "mansfield-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:49:13.045284+00:00", "headline": "Mansfield kitchen pay lags national trend as cook demand rises.", "headline_summary": "Metro Line Cook pay sits at $30,396, down moderately and about $7,000 below the $37,421 national median, while Richland County's 4.0% unemployment stays a point above Ohio's 3.4% statewide rate.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Richland County unemployment", "value": "4.0%", "context": "vs 3.4% Ohio statewide, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Line Cook pay gap", "value": "$30,396", "context": "vs $37,421 national median"}, {"label": "Restaurant industry turnover", "value": "~80% annual", "context": "up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"label": "Ohio tipped wage floor", "value": "$5.50/hr", "context": "rising to $5.70 in 2027"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Line Cook pay is falling locally while demand is set to climb nationally.", "body": "Metro Line Cook pay sits at $30,396, down moderately and roughly $7,000 below the $37,421 national median, even as BLS projects 12% growth in cook employment through 2035. Operators holding BOH pay flat risk losing kitchen staff to metros or industries closing that gap faster."}, {"headline": "Crew pay softening likely reflects a looser local labor pool.", "body": "Crew advertised pay is down moderately to $27,420 against Richland County's 4.0% unemployment rate, a point above Ohio's statewide 3.4%. A softer local labor market gives quick-service operators room to hold entry-level pay steady, but the gap narrows if county unemployment keeps easing."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation shifts cost risk without delivering cost certainty.", "body": "Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators pay $2.13 federal tipped wage for more side-work duties, but Ohio's $5.50 state tipped floor and its CPI-indexed climb to $5.70 in 2027 mean the practical savings are narrower here than in states without a state tipped minimum. Labor-cost models built on federal flexibility alone will overstate savings in this market."}, {"headline": "Manager-tier pay gains suggest retention dollars are concentrating upward.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM ($59,170), Assistant Manager ($41,357) and Shift Manager ($33,308) are all trending up locally, while Server and Crew pay hold flat or soften. That split implies operators are prioritizing supervisory retention even as entry-level and hourly roles absorb more turnover risk."}], "local_conditions": "Richland County unemployment held at 4.0% in September, a full point above Ohio's 3.4% statewide rate, signaling a metro labor pool that remains looser than the state average even as healthcare and manufacturing employers like OhioHealth and Owens Corning continue active recruiting. Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage guidance in October, combined with Ohio's CPI-locked minimum wage climbing to $11.40/$5.70 in 2027, creates a widening gap between regulatory flexibility on side-work pay and a predictable, rising wage floor that operators must budget against.", "implications": "Local Line Cook pay sitting at $30,396 against a $37,421 national median suggests Mansfield operators are underpricing back-of-house talent at the exact moment BLS projects cook demand growing 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers \u2014 a structural mismatch that turnover data (80% industry-wide annual churn) will keep punishing. Rising Restaurant Manager/GM and Shift Manager pay locally (both trending up) point toward operators concentrating retention investment at the supervisory layer while leaving entry-level BOH roles exposed to competitive poaching. Consider reviewing back-of-house pay structures against the national Line Cook benchmark before the 2027 minimum wage step-up compresses the spread between entry and skilled kitchen pay even further.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "ODJFS publishes October metro-level unemployment and labor force data on November 24. Watch whether Richland County's 4.0% rate moves toward or away from the 3.4% state average, a signal for whether local labor supply is tightening or loosening heading into seasonal hiring."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "The 80/20 rule withdrawal is new as of October; expect state restaurant associations and compliance advisors to issue guidance through year-end. Operators relying on side-work pay flexibility should track whether Ohio issues its own clarifying guidance given the state's separate tipped-wage floor."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Food & Hospitality accounted for 4 of Ohio's WARN notices and 690 affected workers so far in 2026 \u2014 modest compared to manufacturing, but worth monitoring for any Mansfield-specific filings as regional chains assess year-end staffing levels."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "2027 Ohio minimum wage increases to $11.40/$5.70 are locked in by constitutional CPI indexing. Budget cycles finalized in Q1 2027 should account for this now, particularly for operators with Line Cook and Crew pay already compressed against national medians."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41357.0, "metro_p75": 43500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 36156.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 54080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22947.0, "metro_p50": 27420.0, "metro_p75": 30811.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26829.0, "metro_p50": 30396.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46285.0, "metro_p50": 59170.0, "metro_p75": 62477.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26669.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29540.0, "metro_p50": 33308.0, "metro_p75": 37875.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job & Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Richland County unemployment rate at 4.0% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job & Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio statewide unemployment rate at 3.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% from 2025-2035 versus 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover reached approximately 80%"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio 2027 minimum wage rises to $11.40 non-tipped/$5.70 tipped"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "mansfield-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "mansfield-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:45.472361+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mansfield-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mansfield-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}