{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mansfield-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 274, "label": "Mansfield, OH MSA", "slug": "mansfield-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:53:39.886924+00:00", "headline": "Mansfield jobless rate climbs past state average as pay signals diverge", "headline_summary": "Richland County unemployment rose to 4.0% in September against Ohio's 3.4%, even as metro HVAC and construction pay climbed while accountant pay fell to $57,137.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Richland County unemployment", "value": "4.0%", "context": "Sept. 2026, vs. 3.4% Ohio, up from 3.2% in May"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force participation", "value": "61.2%", "context": "vs. 61.8% national rate"}, {"label": "Metro accountant advertised pay", "value": "$57,137", "context": "Down significantly vs. $72,000 national median"}, {"label": "Metro HVAC technician advertised pay", "value": "$73,667", "context": "Up moderately vs. $71,406 national median"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Richland County's jobless rate rise outpaces the state trend.", "body": "September's 4.0% unemployment rate sits well above Ohio's 3.4% and marks a reversal from the metro's spring lows near 3.2%, even as statewide labor force participation (61.2%, below the 61.8% national rate) continues to shrink. A local uptick against a more stable state backdrop may signal metro-specific softening."}, {"headline": "Software engineering pay strength looks like an outlier.", "body": "Metro software engineer advertised pay rose significantly to $171,000, outpacing the $154,403 national median, while data engineer pay held flat at $130,000. This appears to reflect a narrow, high-skill pocket of demand in a metro still defined by manufacturing and healthcare."}, {"headline": "Professional-role pay erosion deserves more attention than headline unemployment.", "body": "Accountant pay fell significantly to $57,137 against a stable $72,000 national figure, and HR generalist pay dropped moderately to $51,783 versus a rising $74,477 nationally. Falling advertised pay in office and professional functions, even amid low statewide unemployment, is consistent with softer demand for administrative and finance talent locally."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades remain the metro's steadiest demand signal.", "body": "HVAC technician pay rose moderately to $73,667 and construction laborer pay rose significantly to $42,167, both outperforming their national medians. Sustained trade-sector wage momentum amid broader softness suggests construction and infrastructure-adjacent work remains a relative bright spot for local economic activity."}], "local_conditions": "Richland County unemployment climbed to 4.0% in September, the metro's highest reading since early 2026 and above both the Ohio rate of 3.4% and the slow downward drift seen earlier this year, as statewide labor force participation continues contracting from an aging workforce and softening service-sector momentum. Local wage data shows a divided picture: software engineering pay rose sharply to $171,000 against a stable national figure, while accountant pay fell significantly to $57,137 and teacher pay declined, pointing to uneven demand across the metro's basket of occupations.", "implications": "Divergence between a 4.0% county unemployment rate and continued strength in healthcare and skilled trades advertised pay (HVAC technician up moderately to $73,667, construction laborer up significantly to $42,167) suggests the metro's labor market is cooling unevenly, a distinction that matters for anyone reading the headline rate as a single signal of local economic health. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing should treat sector-level advertised pay trends as the more reliable gauge of where local demand is concentrated; current conditions suggest reviewing which sectors are absorbing labor-force exits and which are still competing for talent before drawing conclusions about overall business climate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "ODJFS publishes October metro-level unemployment data on November 24; watch whether Richland County's 4.0% September reading holds, reverses, or extends its climb, which will clarify whether this is a one-month blip or a trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio's statewide labor force participation has fallen since June 2025 alongside real wage erosion; if Richland County mirrors this pattern, commerce leaders should expect tighter effective labor availability even as headline unemployment rises."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "No Mansfield-specific WARN notices have surfaced this year, while manufacturing-heavy layoff activity continues elsewhere in Ohio (23 notices, 3,159 workers statewide); continued absence of local filings would support a stable-manufacturing read for the metro."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Divergence between falling accountant and HR-function pay and rising trades pay may foreshadow a broader reallocation of local economic activity toward construction and skilled-trades work; a second month of this pattern would strengthen the case."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23429.0, "metro_p50": 27664.0, "metro_p75": 32076.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23675.0, "metro_p50": 25911.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30244.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 82738.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29614.0, "metro_p50": 35245.0, "metro_p75": 37830.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34098.5, "metro_p50": 42167.2, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60355.5, "metro_p50": 69952.0, "metro_p75": 70845.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28798.0, "metro_p50": 34587.4, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28859.0, "metro_p50": 35753.6, "metro_p75": 37423.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29000.0, "metro_p50": 34704.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31761.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34951.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39054.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57732.0, "metro_p50": 73666.8, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82031.25, "metro_p50": 94426.8, "metro_p75": 106573.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 150756.0, "metro_p50": 171000.0, "metro_p75": 176515.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 97990.0, "metro_p50": 130000.0, "metro_p75": 147772.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51556.0, "metro_p50": 57137.0, "metro_p75": 65562.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67441.0, "metro_p50": 72450.0, "metro_p75": 72641.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51351.5, "metro_p50": 51783.4, "metro_p75": 60313.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47328.25, "metro_p50": 59245.2, "metro_p75": 68739.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71747.0, "metro_p50": 82820.8, "metro_p75": 93502.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33005.0, "metro_p50": 45881.0, "metro_p75": 51344.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 73315.4, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51862.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79080.0, "metro_p50": 96332.0, "metro_p75": 107940.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 46492.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 49181.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33126.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61456.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 77894.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51816.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 45968.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28701.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64992.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job & Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Richland County unemployment rate reached 4.0% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio statewide unemployment rate was 3.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio labor force participation rate at 61.2% vs. 61.8% national"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job & Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Richland County unemployment ranged from 3.2% to 3.9% earlier in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "October 2026 metro-level BLS data releases November 24, 2026"}, {"source_name": "layoffdata.com WARN tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio manufacturing WARN notices totaled 23 filings, 3,159 workers in 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "mansfield-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "mansfield-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "mansfield-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:45.113592+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mansfield-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mansfield-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}