{"schema_version": 1, "id": "mankato-north-mankato-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 319, "label": "Mankato-North Mankato, MN MSA", "slug": "mankato-north-mankato-mn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:47.755170+00:00", "headline": "Mankato's low jobless rate hides a stalling, shrinking labor pool.", "headline_summary": "Mankato held unemployment at 3.9% in July even as August job growth nearly stalled at 100 jobs, a pattern that tracks Minnesota's labor-force participation falling to 66.9% from 68.1% a year ago.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Mankato unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%", "context": "vs 4.4% Minnesota, 4.2% national (July/Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Mankato monthly job growth", "value": "+100 jobs (Aug)", "context": "down from +500 in July; 5-yr avg ~87/mo"}, {"label": "MN labor force participation", "value": "66.9%", "context": "down from 68.1% one year earlier"}, {"label": "National wage vs inflation gap", "value": "3.0% wages vs 3.4% CPI", "context": "weakest real-wage reading since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking labor pool, not a hot economy.", "body": "Mankato's 3.9% unemployment rate looks favorable against state and national figures, but Minnesota's labor-force participation rate has fallen every month in 2026, down to 66.9% from 68.1% a year ago. A tight rate driven by fewer available workers carries different implications for local business expansion than one driven by surging demand."}, {"headline": "August's job growth near-stall breaks a five-year pattern.", "body": "Mankato added just 100 jobs in August after 500 in July, a sharp deceleration that lands below the metro's five-year monthly average of roughly 87 jobs added -- still positive, but the slowdown is notable given July's strength. Government economists and chamber leaders should watch whether September data confirms a genuine cooling or reflects normal month-to-month volatility."}, {"headline": "Pay trends are splitting along blue-collar and office lines.", "body": "Construction laborer, electrician, and HVAC technician advertised pay all fell significantly locally even as customer service representative and accounting pay rose, echoing the national pattern of hands-on trades outperforming white-collar activity in job creation but not here in wage direction. Divergent sector pay trajectories complicate any single narrative about whether Mankato's business climate favors trades or services right now."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing remains a local wage bright spot against a national headwind.", "body": "Manufacturing production worker pay in Mankato sits well above the national median ($45,760 versus $39,520) even as the role trended down locally this month, and Minnesota manufacturing added 2,200 jobs statewide in August. That combination suggests the sector retains underlying strength even amid short-term local pay softness."}], "local_conditions": "Mankato's unemployment rate held at 3.9% in July, below the national 4.2% and well under Minnesota's 4.4%, even as the metro's monthly job gains decelerated sharply from 500 in July to just 100 in August. Wage pressure appears mixed across the basket -- warehouse, customer service, and accounting pay rose locally even as several blue-collar and skilled-trade roles like electrician, HVAC technician, and construction laborer posted significant local pay declines, a divergence that tracks statewide softness in finance and information sectors alongside continued public-sector and healthcare resilience.", "implications": "Slowing monthly job creation alongside a still-low unemployment rate suggests a metro economy that is tight on labor supply but not accelerating -- a pattern consistent with Minnesota's broader labor-force participation decline (66.9%, down from 68.1% a year ago) rather than a demand collapse. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment should read the headline unemployment figure cautiously, since it may reflect fewer workers in the labor force as much as strong hiring; current conditions suggest reviewing labor-force participation trends alongside the unemployment rate before drawing conclusions about how easy it would be to staff new local investment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "August's near-stall in job growth (100 jobs after 500 in July) could mark the start of a genuine slowdown or simple monthly noise. September figures, expected in the coming weeks, will clarify whether Mankato's labor market is decelerating in line with the national pace (29,000 jobs added, well below the 45,000 trailing average) or holding its own."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Minnesota's labor-force participation has declined every month in 2026, with DEED's commissioner citing an aging population and reduced inbound migration following immigration enforcement activity earlier in the year. Watch whether Mankato-area employers report difficulty filling frontline and production roles even as headline unemployment stays low."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. If that gap persists, local consumer spending patterns -- a core input to retail and commerce performance in the Mankato metro -- may soften regardless of the area's comparatively strong unemployment figure."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide WARN notices are down sharply year over year (1,473 workers affected in 2026 versus prior-year levels), a sign of layoff restraint that has so far not shown up in any major Mankato-specific filings. Continued absence of local WARN activity would reinforce the metro's relative stability against national layoff trends at firms like Amazon and FedEx."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27206.0, "metro_p50": 31304.0, "metro_p75": 35776.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32498.0, "metro_p75": 33800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 79386.0, "metro_p75": 92000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32160.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46488.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69558.0, "metro_p50": 82945.8, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37960.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 45458.4, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30058.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33488.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37692.0, "metro_p50": 44966.0, "metro_p75": 47039.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38928.5, "metro_p50": 44512.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 66063.0, "metro_p75": 69555.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81993.0, "metro_p50": 98185.0, "metro_p75": 106662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99782.25, "metro_p50": 112089.0, "metro_p75": 116147.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136256.2, "metro_p75": 152454.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58728.0, "metro_p50": 74265.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80093.0, "metro_p50": 87343.2, "metro_p75": 91931.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61519.0, "metro_p50": 73000.0, "metro_p75": 86200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56062.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 62862.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 94332.4, "metro_p75": 97330.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37675.2, "metro_p75": 53794.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57786.75, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 77378.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56953.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 82679.0, "metro_p50": 100500.0, "metro_p75": 111165.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 65000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 68570.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38462.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 46250.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 47920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68406.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "mankato-north-mankato-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "mankato-north-mankato-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "mankato-north-mankato-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:45.247311+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mankato-north-mankato-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/mankato-north-mankato-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}