{"schema_version": 1, "id": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 360, "label": "Manhattan, KS MSA", "slug": "manhattan-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:51:59.186120+00:00", "headline": "Manhattan's labor market splits: tech pay climbs, trades pay retreats.", "headline_summary": "Riley County unemployment held at a tight 3.6% in September versus 3.8% statewide, even as local HVAC and electrician pay fell sharply while software engineering and financial analyst pay rose significantly.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Riley County unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "vs 3.8% Kansas, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Kansas labor force participation", "value": "66.4%", "context": "Down from prior months, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Kansas nonfarm payrolls", "value": "-2,100", "context": "Month-over-month, Sept 2026 (KDOL)"}, {"label": "Software engineer advertised pay, metro", "value": "$113,702", "context": "Up significantly vs national $154,403"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Riley County is outperforming the state on unemployment.", "body": "A 3.6% September rate sits below both the Kansas average (3.8%) and the prior year's local trend, even as statewide labor force participation declined to 66.4%. Local resilience amid statewide softening may reflect the stabilizing presence of Kansas State University and regional healthcare employment."}, {"headline": "Trades pay is falling even as national trades pay climbs.", "body": "HVAC technician advertised pay fell significantly locally while rising moderately nationally; electrician pay fell moderately locally against a national increase. Divergence this sharp from national trend may signal softening local construction and infrastructure project pipelines worth tracking against permitting and development data."}, {"headline": "Professional-sector pay signals point to selective expansion.", "body": "Software engineering, financial analysis, marketing, and operations management job ads, which track hiring demand and often cover several openings each, all show significant upward pay movement locally, outpacing several national counterparts. The pattern is consistent with employers in these functions competing harder for a constrained local talent pool."}, {"headline": "Government payroll losses statewide have not yet reached this metro.", "body": "Kansas shed 3,200 government jobs year-over-year while private payrolls grew 7,300, a divergence that has implications for public-sector budget planning. Manhattan's public-sector base, anchored by K-State and county government, appears so far insulated, though state-level trends warrant monitoring heading into FY planning cycles."}], "local_conditions": "Riley County unemployment registered 3.6% in September, holding below the state's 3.8% rate, even as Kansas labor force participation slipped to 66.4% and total state nonfarm payrolls contracted by 2,100 month-over-month. Manhattan's local advertised pay data shows divergence consistent with that statewide pattern: software engineering, financial analysis, and marketing job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), show significant upward pay movement while HVAC technician, warehouse manager, and accountant job ads have moved down significantly, pointing to uneven demand across the metro's sectors.", "implications": "Metro labor market conditions point to a bifurcated local economy: professional and technical pay signals (software engineering up significantly, financial analysis up significantly) suggest expansion-ready conditions for knowledge-sector employers, while declines in skilled trades pay (HVAC down significantly, electrician down moderately) raise questions about whether local construction and infrastructure capacity is softening or repricing after a hot prior cycle. Kansas State University and regional healthcare systems continue to anchor the metro's employment base amid statewide government payroll losses (-3,200 year-over-year), underscoring the relative stability public and educational institutions provide against private-sector churn. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should consider cross-referencing sector-level pay trends against statewide manufacturing labor constraints noted in the Fed's October Beige Book, where overtime and shift increases point to capacity limits.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Kansas Department of Labor publishes October 2026 state and metro figures November 20, delayed by prior reporting disruptions tied to the federal shutdown. First full read on whether September's Riley County tightening persisted or reversed."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide manufacturing employers report labor availability constraints tight enough to drive added overtime and shift use, per the Federal Reserve's October Beige Book. Watch whether Manhattan-area manufacturers show similar capacity strain in the November release."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Construction laborer and electrician advertised pay have both moved down locally while climbing nationally, a divergence that could reflect project completions or financing pauses. Local permitting and construction-start data over the next two months will clarify which."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "National labor force growth has slowed amid lower immigration flows and rising retirements; Kansas participation already fell to 66.4% in September. Metro-level participation trends, due with the November 20 release, will show whether Manhattan tracks the statewide pullback or continues to diverge."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23320.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24375.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 38272.0, "metro_p75": 43420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61142.0, "metro_p50": 84500.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28220.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41699.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 67995.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36006.4, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27532.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30235.0, "metro_p50": 40653.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31914.0, "metro_p50": 38451.2, "metro_p75": 41798.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35838.0, "metro_p50": 40632.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52312.0, "metro_p50": 56477.8, "metro_p75": 61329.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76440.0, "metro_p50": 89036.0, "metro_p75": 97434.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73593.0, "metro_p50": 113702.0, "metro_p75": 125000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 93878.0, "metro_p50": 126428.0, "metro_p75": 144655.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 56944.8, "metro_p75": 64516.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70830.0, "metro_p50": 88367.6, "metro_p75": 102738.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54600.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46760.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 84731.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64375.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 75295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 42182.0, "metro_p75": 54613.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52282.0, "metro_p50": 68059.2, "metro_p75": 71976.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63231.25, "metro_p50": 66655.0, "metro_p75": 67439.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73070.0, "metro_p50": 88172.0, "metro_p75": 97561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54228.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 42535.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36391.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43940.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70194.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 49130.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 42772.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 75945.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33256.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62447.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Riley County unemployment at 3.6% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / KDOL", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kansas statewide unemployment 3.8%, participation 66.4% in September"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kansas government payroll declined 3,200 year-over-year while private sector added 7,300"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturers report labor constraints driving overtime and shift increases"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "October 2026 Kansas Labor Report scheduled for November 20 release"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kansas nonfarm payrolls fell 2,100 month-over-month in September"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:40.914485+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}