{"schema_version": 1, "id": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 360, "label": "Manhattan, KS MSA", "slug": "manhattan-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:43.507355+00:00", "headline": "Manhattan unemployment climbs past state and national rates.", "headline_summary": "Riley County unemployment rose from 2.9% in April to 4.3% in July, pushing the metro's preliminary 4.5% August rate above both the 3.8% Kansas and 4.1% national figures, even as warehouse pay jumped to $41,600.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "vs 3.8% Kansas, 4.1% U.S. (Aug 2026, preliminary)"}, {"label": "Riley County unemployment trend", "value": "2.9% \u2192 4.3%", "context": "April to July 2026 rise"}, {"label": "Kansas WARN activity", "value": "0 notices", "context": "Trailing 90 days as of Sept 25, 2026"}, {"label": "Warehouse/fulfillment pay", "value": "$41,600", "context": "vs $38,000 national median, up significantly"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment rose faster than the state and nation.", "body": "Riley County unemployment climbed from 2.9% in April to 4.3% in July, and the metro's preliminary August rate of 4.5% now sits above both the 3.8% Kansas rate and the 4.1% national rate. That inversion \u2014 a university-anchored metro trailing the state it normally outperforms \u2014 is worth tracking as more than a seasonal blip."}, {"headline": "Logistics and food service are the metro's bright spots.", "body": "Warehouse/fulfillment pay rose significantly to a metro median of $41,600, well above the $38,000 national figure, and food service pay rose significantly to $40,653 versus $33,756 nationally. Both outpacing national medians by wide margins suggests localized demand pressure in distribution and hospitality capacity, a signal commerce leaders can treat as a current strength even as headline unemployment softens."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is retreating even as national trades pay climbs.", "body": "Electrician pay fell moderately to $68,214 locally while the national median rose significantly to $71,404; HVAC technician pay moved the same direction, down locally while up nationally. Diverging from the national trend in two trades simultaneously is consistent with softer local construction and facilities activity rather than a national trades slowdown reaching Manhattan."}, {"headline": "Professional-services pay is splitting, not uniformly declining.", "body": "Accountant and marketing specialist pay rose significantly locally, while account manager pay fell significantly to $65,000, well under the $92,749 national median. Uneven direction within the same professional-services basket suggests firm-level or sector-specific dynamics rather than a broad local retreat from office-based work."}], "local_conditions": "Manhattan MSA joblessness drifted upward through summer 2026, with Riley County unemployment climbing from 2.9% in April to 4.3% in July and a preliminary metro-wide reading of 4.5% in August, a softening that tracks the national deceleration in payroll growth rather than any single local shock. Wage momentum remains uneven across the metro's basket \u2014 warehouse/fulfillment pay up significantly and food service pay up sharply, while electrician, HVAC, and account manager pay have moved down \u2014 consistent with a labor market anchored by Kansas State University and Ascension Via Christi but showing softness in trades and professional-services roles typically tied to construction and discretionary business spending.", "implications": "Rising local joblessness alongside sector-specific wage divergence suggests the metro's economic engine \u2014 university and hospital employment \u2014 continues to provide ballast even as cyclical categories like construction-adjacent trades and account management soften, a pattern commerce leaders should read as uneven resilience rather than broad distress. Public-sector and healthcare stability locally mirrors the national split between hands-on sectors gaining ground and white-collar categories losing it, meaning local expansion or investment decisions tied to professional-services demand warrant more caution than those tied to healthcare, logistics, or food-service capacity. Current conditions suggest reviewing local investment or expansion timelines by sector rather than treating the metro's labor market as a single undifferentiated signal.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "September's Kansas Department of Labor report, due October 16, will show whether the Riley County unemployment climb through July continued or reversed. A fourth consecutive monthly rise would mark a trend rather than a summer fluctuation."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Zero WARN notices have been filed in Kansas over the trailing 90 days as of late September, suggesting the metro's unemployment rise is not being driven by mass layoffs. Watch whether that holds, or whether slower national payroll growth (29,000 in September, well below forecast) begins to show up in state filings."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction laborer and skilled-trades pay are softening locally while rising nationally, a divergence that may reflect a pause in local building activity. Commerce leaders tracking permits or project starts should watch for confirmation over the next two months."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Kansas statewide labor force participation has fallen 1% year-over-year even as it remains well above the national rate (67.4% versus 61.8% in April). A continued decline, paired with rising metro unemployment, would point to discouraged-worker dynamics rather than simple job-market cooling."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23238.0, "metro_p50": 28880.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24375.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33387.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57883.5, "metro_p50": 83980.0, "metro_p75": 94226.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25654.0, "metro_p50": 31974.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41699.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55080.5, "metro_p50": 68214.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33540.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28826.75, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 40653.0, "metro_p75": 40654.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31914.0, "metro_p50": 38219.0, "metro_p75": 41797.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35217.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52283.75, "metro_p50": 66475.2, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75225.75, "metro_p50": 89827.2, "metro_p75": 97187.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 114831.0, "metro_p50": 152958.0, "metro_p75": 171327.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 89113.0, "metro_p50": 125634.0, "metro_p75": 141929.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 64936.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 88094.6, "metro_p75": 102977.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45973.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 84392.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49925.0, "metro_p50": 73000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 44052.0, "metro_p75": 54173.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35039.5, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 71976.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66655.0, "metro_p50": 69791.0, "metro_p75": 78510.5, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73248.0, "metro_p50": 87080.0, "metro_p75": 96750.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54014.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 42722.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36391.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70194.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71760.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63229.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:43.450565+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/manhattan-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}