{"schema_version": 1, "id": "manchester-nashua-nh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 283, "label": "Manchester-Nashua, NH MSA", "slug": "manchester-nashua-nh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:38.070369+00:00", "headline": "Manchester tightens as the nation's hiring engine stalls", "headline_summary": "Hillsborough County unemployment sits at 2.7% and local wages rose 6.1% even as U.S. job growth slowed to roughly 29,000 in September, underscoring a metro economy running meaningfully ahead of the national cycle.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Hillsborough County unemployment", "value": "2.7%", "context": "vs 4.1-4.2% national rate, June 2026"}, {"label": "Hillsborough County wage growth", "value": "6.1%", "context": "Highest among large NH counties, weekly avg $1,719"}, {"label": "National payroll growth", "value": "29,000 jobs", "context": "Sept 2026, below 45k 12-mo avg; July/Aug revised down 60k"}, {"label": "NH real purchasing power", "value": "-1.6%", "context": "Jan-July 2026 vs 2025, wages trailing inflation"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Manchester's tightness looks structural, not just cyclical.", "body": "Hillsborough County's 2.7% unemployment rate sits well below both the state's 2.8% and the national 4.1-4.2% range, even as U.S. job growth has cooled to roughly 29,000 net additions in September. Tightness this pronounced against a softening national backdrop points to a labor supply constraint specific to the metro, not simply strong local demand."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are real, but inflation is still winning statewide.", "body": "Hillsborough County posted the strongest wage growth among large NH counties at 6.1%, yielding 1.8% real growth, while New Hampshire overall saw purchasing power fall 1.6% in the first seven months of 2026. Manchester's performance is an outlier within the state, not evidence the inflation squeeze has broadly lifted for area households."}, {"headline": "Small business, not big employers, is carrying local job growth.", "body": "Companies under 20 employees generated most of 2025's net job growth statewide, a pattern that appears to hold in Manchester-Nashua given manufacturing and retail contraction. Economic development strategy calibrated around large-employer recruitment may be solving for the wrong growth driver here."}, {"headline": "Youth labor force erosion is a quiet long-term risk indicator.", "body": "Workers aged 20-34 are declining as a share of New Hampshire's labor force while older workers gain share, a pattern consistent with affordability-driven out-migration. A metro economy built on small-business formation needs a steady pipeline of younger workers and entrepreneurs, making this demographic shift worth tracking against housing cost and permitting data."}], "local_conditions": "Manchester-Nashua's labor market remains historically tight, with Hillsborough County unemployment near 2.7% and the metro civilian labor force holding near 241,000 through mid-2026, even as national payroll growth has slowed sharply to roughly 29,000 jobs in September. Local momentum is concentrated in health care and professional/business services while manufacturing, retail, and wholesale trade continue to contract, producing a two-speed metro economy layered on top of a wage picture where Hillsborough County's 6.1% weekly wage gain still only translates to 1.8% real growth after inflation.", "implications": "Tight local labor supply alongside a national hiring slowdown suggests Manchester's economy is not simply tracking the national cycle \u2014 it is running on its own, smaller-business-driven engine that may be more insulated from national layoff waves but also more exposed to sector concentration risk in health care and services. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh that local wage-inflation dynamics are improving relative to the state average, even as participation among workers aged 20-34 continues to erode, a demographic signal with direct bearing on future consumer spending and tax-base stability. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether youth and family out-migration trends stabilize before treating the metro's low unemployment rate as a straightforward sign of economic strength.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Watch whether Hillsborough County's wage-growth advantage over the rest of New Hampshire persists through Q4 reporting, or converges toward the statewide 1.6% real-purchasing-power decline. A convergence would suggest Manchester's outperformance was a temporary statistical artifact rather than durable momentum."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National WARN filings are rising year over year in finance, tech, and logistics (Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle among those named), even as New Hampshire's own WARN activity stays modest at 8 notices and 694 workers statewide. Monitor whether any multi-state notices, such as the Republic National Distributing filing, extend into Manchester-area facilities in coming weeks."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Health care and social assistance remain the metro's clearest growth engine while manufacturing and retail continue to shrink; any slowdown in health care postings would remove the one sector currently offsetting broader softness. Local economic development bodies should track whether this concentration deepens heading into year-end budget and staffing cycles for area health systems."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National labor force participation has plateaued at 61.8% with government payrolls shrinking nationally by 216,000 over the past year; New Hampshire's public-sector stability has so far diverged from that trend. Any sign of state or municipal budget pressure translating into public-sector headcount reductions would mark a meaningful shift in a metro where public employment has been a stabilizing force."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29693.0, "metro_p50": 34863.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30112.0, "metro_p50": 33444.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57210.0, "metro_p50": 73415.2, "metro_p75": 83980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33626.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 43000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39729.0, "metro_p50": 46088.4, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68230.0, "metro_p50": 83272.4, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36433.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44983.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35294.0, "metro_p50": 39641.0, "metro_p75": 42725.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30873.5, "metro_p50": 37554.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 45808.4, "metro_p75": 48781.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39274.25, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 49384.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71286.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 83491.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91448.75, "metro_p50": 111520.0, "metro_p75": 119474.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111772.0, "metro_p50": 153544.0, "metro_p75": 161500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99123.5, "metro_p50": 127491.2, "metro_p75": 142136.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62479.0, "metro_p50": 73382.0, "metro_p75": 78500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76237.0, "metro_p50": 87360.0, "metro_p75": 98314.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 73201.0, "metro_p75": 75841.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41361.0, "metro_p50": 72354.4, "metro_p75": 90175.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38527.5, "metro_p50": 57552.4, "metro_p75": 69353.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 92500.0, "metro_p75": 101095.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87897.0, "metro_p50": 103903.2, "metro_p75": 118314.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 76850.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37338.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53315.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 107392.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55909.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 68842.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69353.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36402.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60569.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "manchester-nashua-nh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "manchester-nashua-nh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "manchester-nashua-nh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:41.710420+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/manchester-nashua-nh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/manchester-nashua-nh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}