{"schema_version": 1, "id": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 309, "label": "Madison, WI MSA", "slug": "madison-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:52:58.441669+00:00", "headline": "Madison's labor market is tight but not growing.", "headline_summary": "Madison's 2.7% unemployment rate ranks third-lowest among large U.S. metros even as Wisconsin's post-pandemic job growth of just 1.5% trails the national 4.3% rate, with statewide real wages down 5.1% year-over-year despite Dane County's 7.7% nominal wage gain.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Madison metro unemployment rate", "value": "2.7%", "context": "3rd-lowest among 108 large U.S. metros (Aug. 2026)"}, {"label": "Wisconsin real wage growth", "value": "-5.1%", "context": "Steepest decline of any U.S. state, Sep 2025-Sep 2026"}, {"label": "Dane County wage growth", "value": "+7.7% YoY", "context": "Q1 2026, $1,631 avg weekly wage"}, {"label": "Wisconsin post-pandemic job growth", "value": "+1.5%", "context": "vs. +4.3% nationally, Feb 2020-Jul 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a stalled jobs engine.", "body": "Madison's 2.7% unemployment rate ranks third-lowest nationally, yet statewide payrolls remain below the November 2024 peak and Wisconsin's post-pandemic job growth of 1.5% trails the national 4.3% by nearly threefold. Tight labor markets here reflect limited labor supply as much as economic strength, a distinction that matters for anyone reading the headline rate as a growth signal."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades carry this month's wage story.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay (up significantly to $117,936) and HVAC Technician pay (up significantly to $80,397) outpace national figures by wide margins, consistent with national data showing healthcare leading private hiring demand. Construction's statewide strength paired with Wisconsin manufacturing running 4% below pre-pandemic levels suggests the metro's economic momentum is concentrated in specific sectors."}, {"headline": "Real wages are falling even where nominal pay looks strong.", "body": "Dane County's 7.7% year-over-year wage gain looks robust until set against Wisconsin's statewide real wage decline of 5.1%, the steepest of any state. Consumer spending power across the metro's basket of workers \u2014 from retail to office roles \u2014 is likely eroding even as paychecks nominally grow, a dynamic relevant to any local business climate assessment grounded in income growth."}, {"headline": "Professional services softness contrasts with trades and healthcare strength.", "body": "Marketing Specialist pay fell significantly (to $56,921) and Business Analyst pay declined moderately, diverging sharply from Account Manager pay's significant rise to $120,706. The divergence suggests Madison's white-collar demand is uneven, echoing national data showing professional and business services shedding jobs while healthcare and skilled trades expand."}], "local_conditions": "Madison's 2.7% unemployment rate \u2014 third-lowest among 108 large U.S. metro areas in August \u2014 continues to coexist with near-stagnant payroll growth, as 2025 closed with only 0.4% year-over-year employment gains and Dane County employment rose just 0.7% between March 2025 and March 2026. Advertised wage strength concentrates in healthcare, engineering, and skilled trades \u2014 Registered Nurse pay up to a metro median of $117,936 and HVAC Technician pay up significantly to $80,397 \u2014 while statewide real wages fell 5.1% year-over-year, the steepest decline of any state, suggesting Madison's tight labor supply is colliding with inflation that is eroding purchasing power even where nominal pay is climbing.", "implications": "Dane County's 2.9% unemployment rate alongside flat statewide job creation signals a metro economy where labor scarcity is the binding constraint on business expansion \u2014 a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing new investment or capacity decisions. Wage gains concentrated in healthcare, engineering, and trades point to where the metro's economic capacity is actually expanding, while sectors like marketing (down significantly, -$56,921 median) and business analysis (down moderately) suggest softening demand in professional services. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider tracking which sectors show advertised pay growth outpacing the metro's 7.7% year-over-year wage increase in Dane County, as this may better indicate where local business investment is concentrating than headline unemployment figures alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Dane County's Q3 2026 wage and employment data, due from BLS in coming weeks, will show whether the 0.7% year-over-year employment growth recorded through March held through the second half of the year or decelerated further toward Wisconsin's broader stagnation."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "H-1B filings for Madison ran 13% below the prior year and 28% below historical norms in FY2026 Q1 \u2014 a trend worth tracking as a bare, non-partisan data point on how federal immigration policy and visa processing volumes are shaping the local technical and life sciences labor supply, without implying cause or advocating a policy position."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wisconsin's Black unemployment rate of 7.2% remains nearly three times the white rate of 2.3%, the widest disparity nationally. Watch whether this gap narrows or widens in Dane County specifically, as it bears on labor force participation capacity across the full metro workforce."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings remain modest (56 notices, 3,914 workers in 2026) with no major Madison-specific layoff event this month, but national WARN activity is elevated (340,000+ workers affected through late October). Any uptick in local filings would be a signal worth flagging early given how tight the metro's labor supply otherwise looks."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26279.0, "metro_p50": 32991.2, "metro_p75": 35435.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25830.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32323.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32738.0, "metro_p50": 38446.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57121.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 83850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31784.5, "metro_p50": 38238.0, "metro_p75": 45696.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36987.0, "metro_p50": 42225.4, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62869.75, "metro_p50": 79040.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35538.0, "metro_p50": 40039.4, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41322.0, "metro_p75": 45240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28278.0, "metro_p50": 34844.0, "metro_p75": 39437.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37169.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 52964.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36821.0, "metro_p50": 43301.6, "metro_p75": 48070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64480.0, "metro_p50": 80396.6, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97612.5, "metro_p50": 117936.0, "metro_p75": 126515.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113177.0, "metro_p50": 159044.0, "metro_p75": 175817.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90563.0, "metro_p50": 139070.0, "metro_p75": 152564.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60523.0, "metro_p50": 71307.4, "metro_p75": 81505.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80733.5, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 107500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53821.0, "metro_p50": 69918.4, "metro_p75": 75665.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46825.0, "metro_p50": 56921.0, "metro_p75": 66425.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85176.0, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 52154.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75313.0, "metro_p50": 120706.2, "metro_p75": 149791.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66387.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 85223.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78401.0, "metro_p50": 93962.0, "metro_p75": 104646.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 69215.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 94347.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39932.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 140883.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 80342.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 73182.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 93967.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35107.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63908.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:36.513291+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}