{"schema_version": 1, "id": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 309, "label": "Madison, WI MSA", "slug": "madison-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:06.529458+00:00", "headline": "Madison's jobless rate climbs as payrolls quietly shrink.", "headline_summary": "Madison unemployment rose from 2.5% in May to 2.9% in July even as nonfarm employment fell 1.2% year-over-year, with wage gains narrowing to healthcare and skilled trades while sectors like marketing and HR administration saw advertised pay declines.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Madison unemployment rate", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Up from 2.5% in May 2026"}, {"label": "Madison nonfarm payrolls", "value": "-1.2% YoY", "context": "429.5K total, June 2026"}, {"label": "Wisconsin wage growth vs inflation", "value": "4.2% vs 3.9% CPI", "context": "Narrowing real-wage gain for 2026"}, {"label": "Wisconsin labor force participation", "value": "64.5%", "context": "Down from 65.4% year-ago; still above 61.8% US"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking payroll base.", "body": "Madison's 2.9% jobless rate remains well below national levels, yet nonfarm employment fell 1.2% year-over-year through June \u2014 a combination more consistent with workers exiting the labor force or relocating than with a tight, expanding labor market. Economic development messaging built solely on the unemployment rate risks overstating current momentum."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are clustering in healthcare and skilled trades, not broadly.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay rose to a metro median of $119,012 and HVAC Technician pay to $80,087, both significant year-over-year increases, while Marketing Specialist and HR Generalist advertised pay fell. That pattern suggests tight local capacity in hands-on, credentialed occupations alongside real softness in white-collar administrative and marketing functions."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation gap is narrowing real purchasing power statewide.", "body": "Wisconsin wage growth is forecast at 4.2% for 2026 against core CPI inflation of 3.9%, a thinner real gain than in 2025 and one state economists describe as likely to erode further. Local consumer spending capacity, a key input for retail and service-sector business planning, should not be assumed to be rising in real terms even where nominal wages look healthy."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and trade softness tracks the statewide pattern, not a local anomaly.", "body": "Wisconsin's Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector and manufacturing are both contracting, consistent with Madison's own payroll decline and suggesting the metro's softness is structural to the state's industrial mix rather than a localized disruption. Commerce leaders should weigh this as a regional, not metro-specific, headwind when benchmarking Madison's performance against other Wisconsin markets."}], "local_conditions": "Madison's unemployment rate has drifted upward from a cycle-low 2.5% in May 2026 to 2.9% in July, with nonfarm payrolls down 1.2% year-over-year even as the metro continues to outperform statewide and national benchmarks on labor force participation. Softness concentrates in trade, transportation and manufacturing, while education, health services and skilled trades show continued advertised-pay momentum, suggesting a two-speed local economy rather than a broad-based slowdown.", "implications": "Divergence between a historically low unemployment rate and contracting payrolls points to a metro economy consolidating rather than expanding, which argues for caution in reading low joblessness alone as a signal of strong business conditions. Commerce leaders weighing expansion, investment or site-selection decisions should note that wage momentum is now concentrated in healthcare, skilled trades and specialized technical roles rather than spread across the basket \u2014 a pattern more consistent with capacity-constrained sectors than general economic acceleration. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level payroll data alongside the unemployment rate before drawing conclusions about overall local economic direction.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Madison's unemployment rate has risen for two straight reported months (2.5% to 2.9%). A third consecutive increase in the next BLS release would confirm a trend rather than normal monthly noise and would be the clearest signal yet of cooling local conditions."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August; any similar deceleration showing up in Wisconsin's next state jobs report would reinforce that Madison's softness is part of a broader national turn rather than an isolated local story."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wisconsin WARN notices affected 3,914 workers in 2026, down 7% from 2025, with manufacturing historically dominant. A local uptick in filings, particularly in trade or manufacturing, would be an early test of whether Madison's payroll contraction is accelerating."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "UW-Madison's Class of 2026 graduates reported a difficult hiring environment through spring; whether this cohort's labor force attachment improves into fall will help clarify if Madison's labor force participation, still above both state and national averages, is beginning to soften among younger workers."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26492.0, "metro_p50": 33210.6, "metro_p75": 35890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25046.0, "metro_p50": 30650.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56798.0, "metro_p50": 75703.0, "metro_p75": 84738.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31733.0, "metro_p50": 36786.0, "metro_p75": 42374.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34737.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64443.0, "metro_p50": 79040.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35079.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41369.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28278.0, "metro_p50": 36431.0, "metro_p75": 40310.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36977.0, "metro_p50": 46488.0, "metro_p75": 52964.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36372.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62536.5, "metro_p50": 80087.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98778.0, "metro_p50": 119012.0, "metro_p75": 127286.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 114500.0, "metro_p50": 158751.2, "metro_p75": 176318.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89983.0, "metro_p50": 136500.0, "metro_p75": 151659.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60071.5, "metro_p50": 71000.0, "metro_p75": 80135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79751.0, "metro_p50": 99703.2, "metro_p75": 107500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53893.0, "metro_p50": 66566.2, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46985.0, "metro_p50": 56612.2, "metro_p75": 67259.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70157.0, "metro_p50": 82249.6, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35880.0, "metro_p50": 45448.0, "metro_p75": 52523.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75597.0, "metro_p50": 118329.0, "metro_p75": 149791.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 41352.0, "metro_p50": 75109.6, "metro_p75": 84528.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78243.0, "metro_p50": 93313.0, "metro_p75": 103462.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 92140.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56761.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 140820.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 82500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 69661.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 87828.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35102.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66768.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:39.831423+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/madison-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}