{"schema_version": 1, "id": "madera-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 301, "label": "Madera, CA MSA", "slug": "madera-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:41:01.236523+00:00", "headline": "Madera's jobless rate falls fast \u2014 but harvest, not hiring, is driving it.", "headline_summary": "Madera unemployment dropped to 4.2% from 7.4% in June, yet still trails California's 5.1% and the nation's 4.1% closely enough to suggest seasonal agricultural timing rather than new economic momentum.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Down from 7.4% in June 2026"}, {"label": "State unemployment rate", "value": "5.1%", "context": "California ranks 48th nationally"}, {"label": "National unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "7.1M unemployed, Sept payrolls +29,000"}, {"label": "Metro farm employment rank", "value": "10th", "context": "12,000 farm jobs among CA counties, 2024"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Madera's jobless rate drop looks seasonal, not structural.", "body": "Unemployment fell from 7.4% in June to 4.2% in September, a pattern consistent with the county's harvest-driven agricultural employment cycle rather than new business formation. Economic development messaging should separate this annual swing from any claim of durable momentum."}, {"headline": "Metro pay trends diverge sharply by sector, unlike the state's broad cooling.", "body": "Account Manager and Warehouse Manager advertised pay rose significantly locally even as Electrician and Delivery Driver pay fell significantly \u2014 a wider spread than California's overall 3.1% wage growth figure suggests. This dispersion points to pockets of localized demand (logistics, professional services) rather than metro-wide tightness."}, {"headline": "Madera still runs hotter on joblessness than state and nation.", "body": "Even after improvement, the metro's 4.2% rate sits close to the state's 5.1% and above the national 4.1%, underscoring that Madera's labor market recovery started from a deeper hole. Commerce leaders citing improvement should pair it with this baseline context to maintain credibility with skeptical audiences."}, {"headline": "Agriculture's outsized footprint remains Madera's defining variable.", "body": "Ranking tenth among California counties for farm jobs (12,000), Madera's overall labor market health is disproportionately exposed to crop cycles, water policy, and immigration enforcement activity affecting farm labor supply. Any of these factors could move the county's unemployment rate more than broader state or national conditions."}], "local_conditions": "Madera's unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in September, a sharp improvement from 7.4% in June, tracking the agricultural harvest cycle that drives seasonal payroll swings across the county's 12,000 farm jobs and 42,700-job nonfarm base. National hiring cooled to 29,000 jobs added and California's jobless rate held at 5.1%, meaning Madera's local improvement is running counter to, not in lockstep with, broader state and national softening.", "implications": "Local economic momentum appears driven primarily by seasonal agricultural employment rather than durable diversification, which limits how much commerce leaders should read into the headline unemployment drop as evidence of structural strength. Wage data across the metro's advertised-pay basket shows a bifurcated picture \u2014 Customer Service Representative and Account Manager postings up significantly while Electrician and Delivery Driver pay are down significantly \u2014 consistent with uneven demand rather than broad-based business expansion. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders and economic development officials should distinguish seasonal labor market tightening from genuine investment signals before citing the unemployment improvement as a growth narrative to outside investors or site-selection consultants.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Seasonal inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Madera's unemployment rate ticks back up as the harvest season winds down into late fall, which would confirm the current reading reflects seasonal timing rather than lasting improvement."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Immigration enforcement activity affecting agricultural labor supply bears monitoring as a bare economic fact \u2014 any shift in farm labor availability could move Madera's employment figures more visibly than in most California metros given agriculture's outsized local share."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "California's planned minimum wage increase to $17.40 effective January 2027 will affect Madera's lower-wage advertised roles (Retail Cashier, Delivery Driver) more than higher-wage metros, given the county's lower median pay baseline."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "State-level WARN notices tied to named employers like Meta, Amazon, and Verizon have not yet surfaced locally; continued absence of Madera-specific WARN filings would support the case that the metro is decoupled from the broader California layoff trend."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35152.0, "metro_p50": 37232.0, "metro_p75": 42593.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30196.0, "metro_p50": 39944.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34723.5, "metro_p50": 38074.0, "metro_p75": 43160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 77142.0, "metro_p75": 84068.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32624.0, "metro_p50": 33643.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37265.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 69734.6, "metro_p75": 72354.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37211.75, "metro_p50": 40687.8, "metro_p75": 44871.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38519.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 65520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35499.75, "metro_p50": 48256.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39291.0, "metro_p50": 44325.0, "metro_p75": 55120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43882.5, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 53166.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62929.0, "metro_p50": 75735.2, "metro_p75": 82160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 109200.0, "metro_p50": 124894.0, "metro_p75": 137268.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 126000.0, "metro_p50": 170603.4, "metro_p75": 191142.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 105880.0, "metro_p50": 145419.0, "metro_p75": 162070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76250.0, "metro_p50": 106445.0, "metro_p75": 106445.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80043.5, "metro_p50": 102500.0, "metro_p75": 113713.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63900.0, "metro_p50": 81560.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49779.0, "metro_p50": 69611.0, "metro_p75": 79474.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 106039.0, "metro_p75": 130500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48825.0, "metro_p50": 68491.4, "metro_p75": 80036.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 68603.75, "metro_p50": 99853.6, "metro_p75": 123117.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60099.75, "metro_p50": 89500.0, "metro_p75": 100625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84564.0, "metro_p50": 101345.0, "metro_p75": 114767.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39416.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 73445.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 57850.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53495.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 64581.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 38480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69951.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "madera-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "madera-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "madera-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:38.022203+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/madera-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/madera-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}