{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ma-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 318, "label": "MA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ma-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:50:57.700912+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Massachusetts tightens even as state labor force shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Franklin County unemployment held at 4.1% and Dukes County at 2.9% in August, even as Massachusetts' statewide labor force has contracted by roughly 81,000 since March 2025.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Franklin County unemployment", "value": "4.1%", "context": "August 2026, in line with state average"}, {"label": "Dukes County unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Lowest in Massachusetts, August 2026"}, {"label": "MA labor force contraction", "value": "-81,000", "context": "Since March 2025 peak, statewide"}, {"label": "New England nominal wage growth", "value": "2.3%", "context": "Slowest of 9 census divisions, Q2 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment in Dukes County masks a thin labor pool.", "body": "A 2.9% jobless rate reflects an island economy with limited year-round workforce scale, and seasonal tourism dependence means the figure will swing sharply by winter. Commerce leaders should weigh seasonality as the key factor when assessing local capacity, rather than treating the headline rate as sufficient on its own."}, {"headline": "Wage growth in frontline roles outpaces the state's overall wage trend.", "body": "Retail cashier, food service, and CNA/home health aide pay all moved up significantly in this metro while New England wages overall grew just 2.3% year-over-year \u2014 slowest of any census division. Divergence suggests nonmetropolitan employers in consumer-facing and care sectors are competing harder for a shrinking available workforce than wage data at the regional level would imply."}, {"headline": "Statewide labor force erosion is the more consequential story than county unemployment.", "body": "Massachusetts has lost about 81,000 workers from its labor force since March 2025, with employed residents falling by 59,200. Nonmetropolitan counties, already smaller and older in workforce composition, are unlikely to be insulated from that contraction even where local unemployment reads low."}, {"headline": "CDL driver pay signals logistics activity tied to the broader Massachusetts trade pattern.", "body": "A $90,000 metro median for CDL truck drivers, up significantly and well above the $78,872 national figure, tracks with trade/transportation/utilities posting among the strongest September growth sectors statewide. Economic development planners should read this as evidence of freight and distribution activity extending into nonmetropolitan corridors."}], "local_conditions": "Franklin County's unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August against Dukes County's 2.9%, both tighter than the 4.3% statewide rate reported for September, though the nonmetropolitan area's small employment base and seasonal tourism exposure in the island counties make these figures volatile month to month. Massachusetts' labor force contraction since March 2025 \u2014 down roughly 81,000 statewide \u2014 combined with regional wage growth of just 2.3% against elevated inflation suggests nonmetropolitan counties are navigating the same structural labor-supply tightening as the rest of the state, without the scale of professional and financial services employment that has cushioned Boston-area numbers.", "implications": "Advertised pay gains across frontline and skilled-trade categories in this metro \u2014 retail cashier up significantly, CDL truck driver up significantly to a $90,000 median, HVAC technician up significantly \u2014 point to continued wage pressure in sectors tied to local consumer activity, construction, and logistics, even as white-collar categories like software engineering and financial analysis hold flat. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or facility investment in nonmetropolitan counties should treat labor-force contraction as the more reliable signal of local worker availability than the headline unemployment rate. Consider reviewing sector-specific wage trends alongside county labor force participation data before finalizing site-selection or expansion timelines in Franklin, Dukes, or Nantucket counties.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to resolve", "body": "Official BLS metro-level data for the MA Nonmetropolitan Area for October will not publish until December 2, leaving a reporting lag for this period. Government economists and chambers should treat current county-level reads as provisional and revisit after the December release."}, {"category": "Seasonal inflection point", "body": "Dukes and Nantucket counties' unemployment figures typically rise as tourism season winds down; watch whether the post-season increase this year is sharper than in 2025, which would point to a thinner year-round labor base as the driver, beyond normal seasonality."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force contraction of 81,000 since March 2025 has not reversed despite September's modest statewide gain of 8,400 residents entering the labor force. Nonmetropolitan county officials should watch whether that statewide rebound reaches rural counties or remains concentrated in Boston-area metros."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Governor Healey's Economic Assistance Coordinating Council approved $11.5 million in tax credits in October for 10 expansion projects statewide targeting 674 jobs and $339 million in private investment. Commerce leaders should track whether any nonmetropolitan-county projects appear in future EACC rounds as a sign of state investment reaching beyond Boston and Worcester."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30932.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 42047.0, "metro_p75": 43420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35953.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63109.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 96500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31664.75, "metro_p50": 34485.6, "metro_p75": 40397.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39396.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63440.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 90480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 36564.0, "metro_p50": 43000.0, "metro_p75": 46725.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 36242.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49194.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42071.0, "metro_p50": 44212.4, "metro_p75": 61412.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42428.0, "metro_p50": 50688.0, "metro_p75": 57200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39950.0, "metro_p50": 62000.0, "metro_p75": 78116.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72378.0, "metro_p50": 72379.0, "metro_p75": 74759.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107550.25, "metro_p50": 125730.0, "metro_p75": 133058.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 122000.0, "metro_p50": 156000.0, "metro_p75": 172685.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 142833.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62350.0, "metro_p50": 76463.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78000.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 107500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 76942.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49519.0, "metro_p50": 67722.4, "metro_p75": 79407.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77868.0, "metro_p50": 99000.0, "metro_p75": 130500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54383.0, "metro_p50": 73840.0, "metro_p75": 78537.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 115360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 76246.6, "metro_p75": 79006.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83690.0, "metro_p50": 102500.0, "metro_p75": 115000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 81474.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 67000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 43832.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70756.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 43750.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 109152.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 115097.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 42640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / USAFacts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Franklin County unemployment rate of 4.1% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dukes County unemployment rate of 2.9%, lowest in Massachusetts"}, {"source_name": "Pioneer Institute", "source_url": null, "statement": "Massachusetts labor force shrank by about 81,000 since March 2025"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Boston", "source_url": null, "statement": "New England nominal wage growth of 2.3% year-over-year, Q2 2026"}, {"source_name": "Massachusetts Economic Assistance Coordinating Council", "source_url": null, "statement": "EACC approved $11.5M in tax credits for 10 projects, 674 jobs"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS metro-area data for October 2026 scheduled for December 2 release"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ma-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ma-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "ma-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:30.149322+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ma-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ma-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}