{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lynchburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 303, "label": "Lynchburg, VA MSA", "slug": "lynchburg-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:50:08.410653+00:00", "headline": "Lynchburg job growth flickers after a year of stagnation.", "headline_summary": "September's 200-job gain lifted Lynchburg MSA payrolls to 105,300 after a year averaging a 25-job monthly loss, while healthcare pay climbed and professional-services pay fell locally even as national figures held steady.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lynchburg MSA nonfarm payrolls", "value": "105,300", "context": "+200 vs August 2026; metro averaged -25/mo in 2026"}, {"label": "Local unemployment rate", "value": "4.0%", "context": "April 2026 reading; vs 3.6% VA, 4.1% US"}, {"label": "Virginia labor force change", "value": "-68,000", "context": "Since early 2025, via retirement/out-migration"}, {"label": "Active local job postings", "value": "5,100+", "context": "1,883 new ads in trailing 30 days (demand signal, one ad often covers several openings)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Job growth has stalled for most of the year.", "body": "Lynchburg's average monthly loss of 25 jobs through much of 2026 places it among the seventh-worst metros nationally for job growth since 2006, even as September's 200-job gain offers a tentative reversal. One month of improvement does not yet establish a trend, and commerce leaders should watch the next two releases before reading it as a turning point."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wages are rising while office-sector pay softens.", "body": "Registered Nurse and CNA/Home Health Aide pay both moved up moderately this month, consistent with sustained local demand tied to Centra Health and the broader EDS & MEDS base. Meanwhile Accountant, Financial Analyst, and Administrative Assistant pay all declined locally even as national figures held flat or rose \u2014 a divergence that suggests softer local demand is concentrated in professional-services and back-office functions specifically."}, {"headline": "Labor-force exit likely explains the low jobless rate.", "body": "Virginia's labor force has contracted by roughly 68,000 workers since early 2025 through retirement and out-migration, a dynamic state economists say artificially suppresses the headline unemployment rate. Lynchburg's proximity to that statewide pattern means a stable or falling local unemployment rate may understate real slack in available workers for employers considering local expansion."}, {"headline": "Trades and skilled-labor pay point to one bright spot.", "body": "HVAC Technician (up significantly to $70,641) and CDL Truck Driver (up moderately to $79,040) advertised pay both moved higher locally this month, outpacing flat national trends in the same roles. That local premium is consistent with constrained regional supply of skilled trades workers relative to demand tied to construction and logistics activity."}], "local_conditions": "Lynchburg MSA nonfarm employment stood at 105,300 in September, up a modest 200 jobs from August, following a year in which the metro averaged a 25-job monthly loss \u2014 one of the weakest job-growth trajectories among Virginia metros since 2006. Hiring demand concentrates in healthcare and education, anchored by Centra Health and Liberty University, while the metro's unemployment rate (last reading 4.0% in April) tracks close to the national rate of 4.1%, a narrower gap than most of Virginia's metros post against the 3.6% state figure.", "implications": "Flat-to-slightly-positive payroll growth alongside advertised pay gains in healthcare roles (Registered Nurse up to $101,131, Certified Nursing Assistant up to $40,820) signals that whatever expansion exists locally is concentrated in a narrow set of sectors, with broad-based business investment still limited. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation decisions should treat Lynchburg's below-state, near-national unemployment rate as a signal of a thin labor pool, since nearly flat employment combined with steady unemployment is consistent with workers exiting the labor force. Local economic development organizations should consider evaluating whether current site-selection pitches account for this sector concentration risk when courting employers outside healthcare and education.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS and Virginia Works publish October metro-level unemployment and payroll figures on November 20. That release will show whether September's 200-job gain extended or reversed, the clearest near-term signal of whether Lynchburg's year-long stagnation is ending."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide hires fell 13% year-over-year as of October per Weldon Cooper Center data; watch whether Lynchburg's job-ad volume (job ads, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings: 1,883 new postings in the most recent 30-day window, over 5,100 active) softens in step, which would corroborate a cooling hiring pace extending beyond this single metro."}, {"category": "Structural watch", "body": "Virginia's minimum wage rises to $13.75 effective January 2027, with a further step to $15.00 in 2028. Retail and food-service employers in the metro, where advertised pay already sits near or below those thresholds, face a compressed timeline to adjust pay structures ahead of the increase."}, {"category": "Policy signal to monitor", "body": "Federal employment nationally sits near 1966-era lows following deferred resignations and early retirements; Lynchburg's limited direct federal-employer exposure offers some insulation, but any extension of federal workforce reductions into contractor or grant-funded positions tied to regional universities and health systems warrants tracking."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25841.0, "metro_p50": 28600.0, "metro_p75": 32090.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25813.0, "metro_p50": 28340.0, "metro_p75": 30420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59054.0, "metro_p50": 79040.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29359.0, "metro_p50": 32490.6, "metro_p75": 34041.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36036.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51610.0, "metro_p50": 64480.0, "metro_p75": 68640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30294.0, "metro_p50": 32641.2, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 40733.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28600.0, "metro_p50": 31280.2, "metro_p75": 31359.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 40820.0, "metro_p75": 42401.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33423.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40997.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58237.75, "metro_p50": 70641.4, "metro_p75": 75204.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87152.0, "metro_p50": 101130.6, "metro_p75": 108687.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57679.0, "metro_p50": 107500.0, "metro_p75": 120850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 138000.0, "metro_p75": 154284.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52911.5, "metro_p50": 58823.0, "metro_p75": 61024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69973.0, "metro_p50": 82012.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52493.0, "metro_p50": 52494.0, "metro_p75": 61507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43000.0, "metro_p50": 43000.0, "metro_p75": 43000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63043.5, "metro_p50": 83500.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 55958.6, "metro_p75": 60962.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57061.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 94783.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54050.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81328.0, "metro_p50": 95637.0, "metro_p75": 107500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55763.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 76482.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33340.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 50544.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 54774.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 88947.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31060.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67974.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lynchburg MSA added 200 jobs reaching 105,300 nonfarm jobs in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Virginia Works / Opportunity LYH research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lynchburg averaged 25 job losses monthly in 2026, seventh-worst since 2006"}, {"source_name": "Weldon Cooper Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia labor force declined approximately 68,000 since early 2025"}, {"source_name": "Virginia HB 1 (enacted April 8, 2026)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia minimum wage rises to $13.75 January 2027, $15.00 January 2028"}, {"source_name": "Weldon Cooper Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Statewide hires fell 13% year-over-year as of October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "October 2026 metro data scheduled for release November 20, 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lynchburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lynchburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "lynchburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:27.915445+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lynchburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lynchburg-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}