{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 295, "label": "Lubbock, TX MSA", "slug": "lubbock-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:49:16.960718+00:00", "headline": "Lubbock holds low unemployment as job growth flattens", "headline_summary": "Lubbock's 3.7% unemployment rate beats the national 4.1% and Texas's 4.4%, even as annual employment growth slows to 0.4% and construction-trade pay posts the metro's sharpest gains.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lubbock unemployment rate", "value": "3.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 4.4% Texas (Sept. 2026)"}, {"label": "Lubbock annual job growth", "value": "0.4%", "context": "~700 jobs added over 12 months through Sept."}, {"label": "Texas labor force growth", "value": "3,600 net", "context": "Statewide net add over past year, near stall"}, {"label": "Lubbock average weekly wage", "value": "$1,140", "context": "Q1 2026, most recent quarterly TWC data"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lubbock's labor market looks tight even as job growth flattens.", "body": "Unemployment at 3.7% sits nearly half a point below the national rate and well under the state's 4.4%, yet annual employment growth has slowed to 0.4%. Low unemployment paired with weak growth points to a labor supply ceiling, a distinction that matters for how the metro is pitched to prospective employers."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades are the metro's clearest pay-growth story.", "body": "Construction laborer pay is up significantly and electrician pay up significantly, both outpacing most white-collar categories in the local advertised-pay basket. That divergence tracks with statewide manufacturing and energy-related construction momentum and suggests Lubbock's trades pipeline is the area most under local wage pressure."}, {"headline": "Professional and technical pay softness bears watching.", "body": "Software engineer, data engineer, financial analyst, and warehouse manager advertised pay all declined locally this month, in some cases sharply, even as national figures for comparable roles held steady or rose. A persistent local-national gap in these categories may reflect thinner demand for higher-skill office work relative to statewide trends in professional and business services."}, {"headline": "Labor force stability defines the metro right now.", "body": "Civilian labor force fell from 188.2 thousand in August with unemployment stable at 3.7%, mirroring the statewide pattern of near-zero net labor force additions. That stagnation, echoed in Texas's statewide net gain of just 3,600 workers over the past year, is the structural backdrop against which any expansion plans should be weighed."}], "local_conditions": "Lubbock's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in September, unchanged from a year earlier and well below the national 4.1% and Texas's 4.4%, even as total employment slipped to 181.3 thousand and annual job growth slowed to 0.4%, roughly 700 positions added over twelve months. Flat employment alongside stable unemployment appears consistent with a labor force settling into a lower-growth equilibrium, echoing the statewide stall in labor force expansion that the Dallas Fed flagged this month as a structural constraint on Texas metros.", "implications": "Lubbock's unemployment advantage over the state and national rates signals a comparatively tight local talent pool, a condition that matters more for business expansion planning and site-selection pitches than for any single pay decision. Advertised pay gains in construction labor and electrician roles, alongside softer trends in office and technical occupations, point to a local economy where skilled-trade and infrastructure-adjacent work is absorbing demand while white-collar categories cool. Civic and commerce leaders should consider framing Lubbock's low unemployment and wage resilience in trades as a business-climate asset when courting investment, while watching whether softness in professional-services pay signals broader demand cooling.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Texas Workforce Commission's November release will show whether Lubbock's September employment dip to 181.3 thousand was a one-month blip or the start of a trend; two consecutive monthly declines would be a more meaningful signal for local economic planners."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force growth has nearly stalled, adding only 15,800 workers in September and 3,600 over the past year. Watch whether Lubbock's civilian labor force, which dipped from 188.2 thousand in August, stabilizes or continues contracting into year-end."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Construction laborer and electrician pay gains locally track statewide manufacturing and energy-driven construction strength. Continued momentum in these categories through year-end would reinforce trades and infrastructure work as the metro's most resilient demand segment."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Declines in advertised pay for software engineer, data engineer, and financial analyst roles locally, against stable national figures for the same work, warrant a second look next month to confirm whether this reflects a local demand pullback or short-term data noise."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25326.0, "metro_p75": 26774.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28509.0, "metro_p50": 34195.0, "metro_p75": 36722.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 80588.0, "metro_p75": 92080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29743.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 40124.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32150.75, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55738.25, "metro_p50": 69260.0, "metro_p75": 78548.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 34536.0, "metro_p75": 38139.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23865.75, "metro_p50": 25083.8, "metro_p75": 27041.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30397.5, "metro_p50": 33806.0, "metro_p75": 41772.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30591.0, "metro_p50": 37288.4, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 64188.0, "metro_p75": 68640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76650.0, "metro_p50": 97464.4, "metro_p75": 107068.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87263.0, "metro_p50": 113929.0, "metro_p75": 134280.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84250.0, "metro_p50": 110155.8, "metro_p75": 127498.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52483.5, "metro_p50": 61992.0, "metro_p75": 66866.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50264.25, "metro_p50": 58919.0, "metro_p75": 80630.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45913.75, "metro_p50": 53897.6, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44625.0, "metro_p50": 53501.4, "metro_p75": 73750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26917.0, "metro_p50": 44187.0, "metro_p75": 48338.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59292.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62151.0, "metro_p50": 78068.4, "metro_p75": 85453.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54437.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 61037.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35931.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61905.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 63571.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 48541.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 72800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 74753.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61979.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lubbock MSA unemployment rate 3.7% in September 2026, unchanged year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate 4.1% and Texas unemployment rate 4.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas labor force added only 15,800 in September, 3,600 net over the year"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lubbock civilian labor force was 188.2 thousand in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lubbock average weekly wage was $1,140 in Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas manufacturing and construction activity supported by oil/gas and AI-related infrastructure"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:25.687243+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}