{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 295, "label": "Lubbock, TX MSA", "slug": "lubbock-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:45.438879+00:00", "headline": "Lubbock wages outrun flat job counts as labor pool tightens.", "headline_summary": "Lubbock wages rose roughly 9% year-over-year even as total employment held flat, while a 600-job dairy plant ramp-up and 8% retail sales growth suggest the metro's real constraint is workers, not demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lubbock unemployment rate", "value": "3.9%-4.4%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 4.0% Texas (Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "Lubbock wage growth", "value": "~9% YoY", "context": "vs 3.9% Texas private wages, 2.5% national postings"}, {"label": "Lubbock employment growth", "value": "Flat YoY", "context": "vs Texas 1.1% annual job growth statewide"}, {"label": "Lubbock retail sales growth", "value": "+8% YTD", "context": "July 2026 sales up 17% YoY"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Flat jobs, rising wages: a worker-supply story, not a demand slump.", "body": "Lubbock employment was essentially unchanged year-over-year even as wages rose roughly 9%, a pattern more consistent with a tight labor pool than weak business activity. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection or expansion should treat local wage inflation as a labor-supply signal, not a demand-side warning."}, {"headline": "Leprino's 600-job ramp-up tests the metro's absorption capacity.", "body": "The $870-million dairy facility nears completion in 2026 with 600 positions to fill, a meaningful addition relative to Lubbock's modest annual labor force growth. How smoothly this staffing completes will be a useful real-world test of how much slack remains in the local labor pool."}, {"headline": "Retail and auto sales outrunning employment growth.", "body": "Year-to-date retail sales are up 8%, with new vehicle sales up 35%, while total employment held roughly flat -- consumer spending momentum appears to be outpacing payroll expansion. That divergence is consistent with existing workers capturing wage gains rather than net-new hiring driving local economic growth."}, {"headline": "Construction and skilled-trade pay diverge from software and data roles.", "body": "Construction laborer and electrician advertised pay rose significantly locally even as software engineer and data engineer pay declined, mirroring the national split between blue-collar and white-collar momentum. For economic development planning, this suggests Lubbock's growth story currently favors trades and physical infrastructure over tech-sector recruitment."}], "local_conditions": "Lubbock's unemployment rate held near 3.9%-4.4% through August and September 2026, with wage growth of roughly 9% year-over-year outpacing both state and national averages even as total employment stayed flat versus a year earlier. Momentum is concentrated in consumer-facing activity -- retail sales up 8% year-to-date and vehicle sales up 35% for new units -- while the 850,000-square-foot Leprino Foods dairy plant nears full staffing of 600 positions, a tangible manufacturing anchor for a metro otherwise dominated by government (32.9% of employment) and health/education services.", "implications": "Flat headline employment alongside strong wage and retail-sales growth suggests Lubbock's economy is tightening on the supply side rather than cooling on demand -- consistent with a metro where available workers, not available work, is the binding constraint. For commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing, the combination of steady government-sector employment, rising construction and electrician pay, and a major manufacturing facility reaching full capacity points to a labor market with limited slack left to absorb new large-scale hiring. Current conditions suggest monitoring labor force participation trends locally before assuming Lubbock can staff a new large employer entrant without drawing from existing payrolls.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether the Leprino Foods facility completes its 600-job staffing without measurable strain on wages in adjacent manufacturing and logistics roles -- a sign of whether Lubbock's labor pool has genuine slack or is already near capacity."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Residential building permits have been declining even as retail and vehicle sales rise; a continued gap between consumer spending and construction activity could signal uneven confidence in Lubbock's growth trajectory."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Texas statewide labor force participation (63.7%) outpaces the national rate, but Lubbock-specific participation data lags; any local release in coming weeks will clarify whether flat employment reflects worker shortage or reduced labor force engagement."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped below inflation for the first time in two years (3.0% vs 3.4% CPI), a dynamic not yet visible in Lubbock's stronger wage gains -- divergence from the national trend is worth tracking for how long it persists."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 28011.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22061.5, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 26312.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28733.0, "metro_p50": 34195.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54080.0, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 92210.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29641.0, "metro_p50": 33739.0, "metro_p75": 39413.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 39459.6, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55788.0, "metro_p50": 67850.0, "metro_p75": 76771.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29045.0, "metro_p50": 31642.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 34540.8, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23907.0, "metro_p50": 25018.0, "metro_p75": 25135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29363.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36655.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28363.0, "metro_p50": 36708.6, "metro_p75": 40543.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56882.75, "metro_p50": 64189.0, "metro_p75": 74910.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77551.0, "metro_p50": 99270.2, "metro_p75": 110474.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87263.0, "metro_p50": 117579.2, "metro_p75": 129959.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84250.0, "metro_p50": 122319.6, "metro_p75": 128314.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53379.0, "metro_p50": 62223.2, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50655.0, "metro_p50": 65041.4, "metro_p75": 72000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45965.0, "metro_p50": 56009.6, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 57879.4, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28236.0, "metro_p50": 44826.0, "metro_p75": 48663.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 88100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64566.75, "metro_p50": 82056.0, "metro_p75": 85453.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 59670.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 60500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36163.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61411.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 68121.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51892.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 71952.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 74135.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27789.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64119.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:30.824239+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lubbock-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}