{"schema_version": 1, "id": "louisville-jefferson-county-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 310, "label": "Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN MSA", "slug": "louisville-jefferson-county-ky-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:40.035627+00:00", "headline": "Louisville unemployment outpaces state and nation as closures mount.", "headline_summary": "Jefferson County unemployment reached 5.6% in June, well above Kentucky's 4.7% and the national 4.1%, as Levi Strauss, RNDC, and Geodis closures concentrate losses in manufacturing and logistics even as health care keeps adding jobs.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Jefferson County unemployment", "value": "5.6%", "context": "vs 4.7% a year earlier, 4.7% statewide, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Metro job growth pace", "value": "~300/month", "context": "Six-month average, below earlier 2026 expectations"}, {"label": "Education/health services job gains", "value": "~2,000", "context": "Added locally over past year, metro's top sector"}, {"label": "Local WARN-notice job losses (2026)", "value": "550+", "context": "Levi Strauss, RNDC, Geodis closures combined"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment is rising faster than the state or nation.", "body": "Jefferson County's rate hit 5.6% in June versus Kentucky's 4.7% and the national 4.1%, a gap that has widened over the past year. The divergence points to metro-specific pressures \u2014 concentrated manufacturing and logistics closures \u2014 rather than a statewide or national slowdown."}, {"headline": "Named closures are concentrated in goods-movement and apparel, not broad sectors.", "body": "Levi Strauss (303 workers), RNDC of Kentucky (174 workers), and Geodis (73 workers) account for most of this year's largest local WARN filings. This pattern looks more consistent with company-specific and tariff-exposed supply-chain shifts than a generalized local business contraction."}, {"headline": "Health care remains the metro's most dependable growth engine, with a visible caution flag.", "body": "Education and health services added nearly 2,000 jobs locally over the past year, and Registered Nurse advertised pay rose significantly to $94,428. Pending federal Medicaid budget reductions beginning in 2027 could blunt this momentum, a timeline worth tracking for anyone planning around health-sector stability."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is outrunning white-collar pay across the metro.", "body": "Electricians ($71,649, up significantly) and HVAC technicians ($68,316, up moderately) are posting stronger local wage gains than Accountants (down significantly to $69,334) or Marketing Specialists (down significantly to $60,781). This split echoes the national divide between hands-on and white-collar labor demand and signals where local wage inflation is actually concentrated."}], "local_conditions": "Louisville's unemployment rate climbed to 5.6% in Jefferson County in June 2026, up from 4.7% a year earlier, even as the metro continues adding roughly 300 jobs per month \u2014 modest growth overshadowed by a string of closures including Levi Strauss's 303-worker facility shutdown and RNDC of Kentucky's 174-job closure. Education and health services remain the metro's clearest bright spot, adding nearly 2,000 jobs over the past year, while manufacturing continues to absorb tariff-related demand softness that is dragging on the state's broader industrial employment count.", "implications": "Divergence between a stabilizing statewide labor force (Kentucky's labor force grew for a third straight month in August per UK's Center for Business and Economic Research) and a softening Jefferson County unemployment rate suggests the metro's cooling is locally concentrated rather than a reflection of broader state distress \u2014 a distinction economic development messaging should preserve carefully. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion timing should weigh that advertised wage gains are increasingly sector-specific (construction, electricians, registered nurses) rather than broad-based, meaning the cost and availability of talent will vary sharply by what a business does, not where it locates. Consider reviewing sector-level job-posting and wage trends before treating metro-wide unemployment figures as a single verdict on local business conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Kentucky's statewide labor force has grown for three consecutive months after five months of decline. Whether that rebound reaches Jefferson County, where unemployment has moved in the opposite direction, will clarify whether the metro's softness is temporary or structural."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing employment statewide remains 2,000 jobs below year-ago levels amid tariff-driven order weakness. Any further local WARN filings in logistics or durable goods would confirm the sector as the metro's primary drag rather than an isolated story."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal Medicaid funding reductions scheduled to begin in 2027 could reach into local health care hiring well before they take effect, given budget-planning lead times. Economic development and commerce groups tracking health sector job postings now may see early signals before the formal funding change lands."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National job growth has slowed sharply (29,000 in September versus a 45,000 trailing average) with wage growth falling behind inflation for the first time in two years. Watch whether Louisville's advertised wage figures, currently mixed by sector, begin trending downward in step with this national pattern over the next reporting cycle."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32849.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23502.0, "metro_p50": 27237.0, "metro_p75": 29982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32576.0, "metro_p50": 36837.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57083.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28705.0, "metro_p50": 34489.0, "metro_p75": 40983.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35331.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 71649.4, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32957.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29605.0, "metro_p50": 37646.0, "metro_p75": 40756.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27287.0, "metro_p50": 29328.4, "metro_p75": 32579.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33735.0, "metro_p50": 37888.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32392.0, "metro_p50": 39682.4, "metro_p75": 44046.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57891.0, "metro_p50": 68316.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80716.0, "metro_p50": 94428.0, "metro_p75": 105167.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97812.5, "metro_p50": 137743.2, "metro_p75": 153550.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92219.0, "metro_p50": 124543.6, "metro_p75": 140620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57822.0, "metro_p50": 69334.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67775.0, "metro_p50": 85153.4, "metro_p75": 91998.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57523.0, "metro_p50": 65416.0, "metro_p75": 70611.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47194.0, "metro_p50": 60781.4, "metro_p75": 71136.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74204.0, "metro_p50": 92500.0, "metro_p75": 94483.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 58500.0, "metro_p75": 67106.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61398.0, "metro_p50": 99863.2, "metro_p75": 135200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51071.0, "metro_p50": 74500.0, "metro_p75": 74500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73969.25, "metro_p50": 90175.0, "metro_p75": 96850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55656.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 74776.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36714.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56836.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 74086.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 71523.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61222.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32011.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68062.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "louisville-jefferson-county-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "louisville-jefferson-county-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "louisville-jefferson-county-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:29.132444+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/louisville-jefferson-county-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/louisville-jefferson-county-ky-in-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}