{"schema_version": 1, "id": "little-rock-north-little-rock-conway-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 258, "label": "Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR MSA", "slug": "little-rock-north-little-rock-conway-ar-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:34:25.863922+00:00", "headline": "Little Rock manager pay softens as tipped and crew wages hold.", "headline_summary": "Metro GM pay fell to $55,000 against a national $59,618 while Catering Manager pay jumped to $53,400, even as Pulaski County unemployment held at 4.3% and the state minimum wage stayed frozen at $11.00 for a fifth year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment (Pulaski County)", "value": "4.3%", "context": "vs 3.4% Saline, 6.3% Jefferson County"}, {"label": "Arkansas minimum wage", "value": "$11.00/hr", "context": "Unchanged since Jan 2021, no indexing"}, {"label": "National food-service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Metro GM/Restaurant Manager pay", "value": "$55,000", "context": "vs $59,618 national median, trending down"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Local manager pay is softening while frontline pay holds firm.", "body": "GM pay fell to a $55,000 metro median against a national $59,618, and Shift Manager and Assistant Manager pay also moved down, while Server and Line Cook pay held stable. Compression between management and tipped frontline roles may be narrowing the incentive to pursue promotion into supervisory tracks."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay is the outlier worth watching.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay rose to $53,400, significantly above the stable national median of $50,960, pointing to localized demand likely tied to event and banquet volume rather than a broad management pay trend. Operators with catering or private-event revenue lines should benchmark this role on its own trajectory, not alongside general management pay."}, {"headline": "A five-year minimum wage freeze is quietly reshaping the pay floor conversation.", "body": "Arkansas' $11.00 minimum and $2.63 tipped cash wage have not moved since January 2021, meaning real purchasing power has eroded while metro unemployment sits near 4.2%. Restaurants filling shifts in tighter submarkets like Saline and Faulkner counties are effectively setting their own wage floors well above statute, making legal compliance a poor proxy for competitive pay."}, {"headline": "National hiring cooldown may not reach Little Rock evenly.", "body": "Food-service job openings nationally dropped by roughly a third since January, but Arkansas Leisure and Hospitality payrolls grew 6,200 over the year, suggesting metro demand is holding up even as national competition for workers eases. Operators should treat national turnover data as directional context, not a direct read on local fill times."}], "local_conditions": "Little Rock metro unemployment edged up to 4.2% in July even as nonfarm payrolls grew 0.7% year-over-year, a combination suggesting labor force expansion is outpacing job creation as net in-migration brings more job seekers into the market. Arkansas' statewide Leisure and Hospitality sector added 6,200 jobs over the year while the state minimum wage remains frozen at $11.00 since 2021, leaving restaurant operators to compete on advertised pay well above the legal floor rather than relying on regulatory wage movement to signal market value.", "implications": "Metro advertised pay for core restaurant roles \u2014 Crew, Shift Manager, Assistant Manager, GM \u2014 is trending flat to down even as national job openings in accommodation and food services have fallen from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, a signal that the extreme hiring frenzy of recent years is cooling and retention economics now matter more than aggressive new-hire premiums. Jefferson County's 6.3% unemployment versus Saline County's 3.4% within the same MSA means labor availability varies sharply by location, so multi-unit operators should expect very different fill rates and wage pressure site by site. Consider reviewing whether current advertised pay for Shift Manager and GM roles, both trending down locally against national medians, still clears the bar needed to retain experienced staff rather than simply meet market median.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Q4 seasonal staffing ramp typically tests capacity in this metro; with Pulaski County unemployment at 4.3% and civilian labor force at record highs, watch whether the larger applicant pool translates into faster fill times for Crew and Server roles heading into holiday volume."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Jefferson County's 6.3% unemployment against Saline County's 3.4% signals a widening intra-metro labor supply gap. Multi-unit operators sourcing across counties should expect divergent advertised pay requirements by location rather than a single metro-wide rate."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National posted wage growth has slowed to 2.5% annually even as benefits costs rise 3.8%, a pattern that could push total rewards conversations toward benefits and scheduling flexibility rather than base pay increases for FOH and BOH staff."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Arkansas' minimum wage has gone five years without a statutory increase and faces no indexing; any 2027 ballot or legislative movement on the wage floor would hit restaurant labor cost models immediately given current reliance on above-floor advertised pay to fill shifts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37807.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49526.0, "metro_p50": 53400.0, "metro_p75": 55756.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21098.75, "metro_p50": 24816.8, "metro_p75": 26000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26778.0, "metro_p50": 30012.8, "metro_p75": 31985.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47500.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26682.0, "metro_p50": 31313.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26808.0, "metro_p50": 28829.0, "metro_p75": 30592.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "little-rock-north-little-rock-conway-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "little-rock-north-little-rock-conway-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:20.703804+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/little-rock-north-little-rock-conway-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/little-rock-north-little-rock-conway-ar-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}