{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lincoln-ne-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 352, "label": "Lincoln, NE MSA", "slug": "lincoln-ne-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:48:14.449661+00:00", "headline": "Lincoln's tight labor pool pushes crew pay up, cook pay behind.", "headline_summary": "Metro Crew pay rose to $31,767 against a 2.9% Lancaster County unemployment rate, while Line Cook pay held at $34,320 \u2014 nearly $3,100 below the national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lancaster County unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "vs 4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "Nebraska tipped cash wage gap", "value": "$2.13 vs $15.00", "context": "One of the widest cash-to-minimum gaps nationally"}, {"label": "Lancaster County labor force", "value": "1,095,378", "context": "Down from 1,103,170 a year earlier"}, {"label": "Nebraska leisure & hospitality job growth", "value": "+2.4%", "context": "2,433 jobs added year-over-year through Sept. 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Crew pay is outpacing the metro's other advertised roles.", "body": "Metro Crew median climbed to $31,767, moderately above the $30,066 national figure, while Server and Shift Manager pay held flat \u2014 a sign operators are directing scarce wage dollars toward the hardest-to-staff entry tier."}, {"headline": "Line Cook pay lags national levels during a widening BOH shortage.", "body": "Metro Line Cook median sits at $34,320 against $37,421 nationally, a gap that may widen recruitment risk as cook roles are projected to grow 12% nationally through 2035 versus 2% for servers."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay decline looks like a demand signal.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay fell significantly to $40,820 and national pay dropped moderately to $50,076, consistent with softening banquet and event volume across the market."}, {"headline": "The tipped-wage gap puts FOH earnings stability at risk.", "body": "Nebraska's $2.13 cash wage against a $15.00 full minimum leaves servers fully exposed to tip volume swings, and DOL's October 80/20 rule repeal gives operators more room to assign non-tip duties without raising cash pay \u2014 a combination worth testing against turnover data before leaning on it."}], "local_conditions": "Lancaster County's 2.9% unemployment rate against a 4.2% national rate keeps Lincoln restaurant operators competing for a shrinking labor pool, with the county's labor force contracting even as leisure and hospitality employment grew 2.4% statewide through September. Nebraska's $15.00 minimum wage combined with a stuck-at-$2.13 federal tipped cash wage widens the earnings gap between front-of-house and back-of-house pay structures, while DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule gives operators new flexibility on side-work compensation.", "implications": "Tight local labor supply paired with a widening tipped-wage gap means front-of-house retention increasingly depends on tip volume and shift scheduling, with base pay playing a smaller role, while back-of-house roles compressed near the $15 floor face recruitment difficulty against better-differentiated positions elsewhere. Metro Crew pay moving up to $31,767 against a national median of $30,066 signals Lincoln operators are already bidding up entry-level roles to offset the labor-force decline. Consider reviewing whether Line Cook pay, flat at $34,320 locally versus $37,421 nationally, is wide enough to compete as BLS projects 12% cook employment growth through 2035.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy deadline", "body": "Nebraska Department of Labor must publish 2027 minimum wage rates by October 15 under the new 1.75% fixed-increase formula; the published figure will set baseline wage planning for all roles paid near the floor."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Lancaster County's labor force shrank year over year even as unemployment held near 2.9%, pointing to fewer available workers as the key driver \u2014 watch whether job ads for Crew and Line Cook roles, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, keep climbing without matching applicant flow."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Youth minimum wage flexibility ($13.50/hour for 14-15 year-olds under LB258) creates a lower-cost seasonal staffing lever heading into winter holiday volume; track whether Lincoln operators begin advertising specifically for youth shifts in dishpit and prep roles."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule repeal changes side-work economics nationally; watch whether Nebraska operators adjust FOH scheduling or job descriptions in response, since the state's wide cash-wage-to-minimum gap makes this flexibility more consequential locally than in states with higher tipped minimums."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 47500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35189.0, "metro_p50": 40820.2, "metro_p75": 48261.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25480.0, "metro_p50": 31767.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30095.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51951.5, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28380.25, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35657.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28719.0, "metro_p50": 32054.0, "metro_p75": 33733.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Nebraska Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lancaster County unemployment rate at 2.9%"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects 12% growth in cook employment through 2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Nebraska Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lancaster County labor force declined year over year"}, {"source_name": "Nebraska Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska minimum wage shifts to fixed 1.75% annual increases starting 2027"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nebraska leisure and hospitality employment grew 2.4% year-over-year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lincoln-ne-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lincoln-ne-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:10.479353+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lincoln-ne-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lincoln-ne-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}