{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lincoln-ne-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 352, "label": "Lincoln, NE MSA", "slug": "lincoln-ne-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:50:45.183064+00:00", "headline": "Lincoln's tight labor market is shrinking even as it stays low.", "headline_summary": "Lincoln-area unemployment near 2.6%-2.9% looks historically tight, but Lancaster County's labor force and employment both fell year-over-year, even as construction and health care carry nearly all of Nebraska's job growth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lincoln MSA unemployment rate", "value": "2.6%-2.9%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate (Sept/Oct 2026)"}, {"label": "Nebraska labor force change", "value": "-7,800 YoY", "context": "Sept 2026 vs Sept 2025, despite stable unemployment"}, {"label": "Nebraska construction job growth", "value": "+7.4% YoY", "context": "vs manufacturing's ~1% growth since 2020"}, {"label": "Construction hourly craft vacancies", "value": "87% of firms", "context": "report open positions; 88% say harder to fill YoY"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Lancaster County's labor force fell alongside a nearly 7,800-person statewide decline in the labor force year-over-year, even as unemployment held near historic lows. That combination points to fewer workers available locally for commerce leaders to draw on."}, {"headline": "Construction and health care are doing the state's heavy lifting.", "body": "Mining/construction (+7.4%) and private education/health services (+2.2%) led Nebraska's job growth over the year, while manufacturing sits only 1% above 2020 levels. Economic momentum in the metro appears concentrated in a narrow band of sectors within the commercial base."}, {"headline": "Wage gains cluster in skilled and technical work.", "body": "Advertised pay for HVAC technicians, registered nurses, and software engineers moved up moderately to significantly this month, while job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), for food service and customer service declined. That divergence is consistent with a metro economy where real purchasing power gains are uneven across the consumer base."}, {"headline": "Construction's labor squeeze is a leading indicator.", "body": "87% of Nebraska construction firms report open hourly craft positions, with 88% saying roles are as hard or harder to fill than a year ago. Given construction's outsized contribution to state job growth, continued strain there could slow one of the few sectors currently carrying momentum."}], "local_conditions": "Lincoln's unemployment rate held near 2.6%-2.9% through recent months, among the tightest readings in the nation, even as Lancaster County's labor force and employment both contracted year-over-year \u2014 a pattern consistent with workforce exit. Statewide sector data shows construction and health care carrying job growth (up 7.4% and 2.2% respectively over the year) while manufacturing remains essentially flat against 2020 levels, suggesting momentum is concentrated in a narrow band of sectors across the metro's economic base.", "implications": "Advertised pay gains in Lincoln's professional and skilled-trades roles \u2014 software engineering, nursing, HVAC \u2014 point to a local economy where wage pressure is real but narrowly distributed, while flat or declining job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), for customer service and food service roles suggest softer demand at the consumer-facing end. For commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing, a shrinking labor force alongside low unemployment signals that growth plans in sectors outside construction and health care may face availability constraints even where demand exists. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-specific labor force participation data before assuming low unemployment translates into available workers for new or expanded operations.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Nebraska's October employment data is scheduled for release November 20, 2026, and will show whether the labor force contraction seen through September persisted or stabilized \u2014 a key read for gauging whether the metro's tight unemployment rate reflects strength or shrinkage."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction firms statewide report near-universal difficulty filling hourly craft roles. Watch whether that pressure begins to slow project timelines or bidding activity in Lincoln, given construction's outsized role in recent job growth."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National information-sector and professional-services job losses (information -10,000, professional/business services -9,000 in September) have not yet shown a clear local echo. Monitor whether Lincoln's software and business-analyst advertised pay gains hold if national white-collar softness persists."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Nebraska's state-level WARN Act, effective July 18, 2026, now requires 90-day advance notice for mass layoffs at firms with 100+ employees \u2014 stricter than federal rules. Any filings under the new standard would offer an earlier, more detailed read on local employer conditions than previously available."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25594.0, "metro_p50": 31703.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25355.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32936.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32534.0, "metro_p50": 39147.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57000.0, "metro_p50": 76500.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31353.25, "metro_p50": 35699.0, "metro_p75": 40300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34689.0, "metro_p50": 41296.0, "metro_p75": 42328.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54297.75, "metro_p50": 70934.0, "metro_p75": 81060.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32154.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33201.75, "metro_p50": 37172.0, "metro_p75": 39575.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26420.25, "metro_p50": 30585.2, "metro_p75": 32776.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34698.75, "metro_p50": 39686.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32911.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52174.75, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 71487.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77139.0, "metro_p50": 92669.0, "metro_p75": 106772.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113131.25, "metro_p50": 144870.0, "metro_p75": 158791.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95705.5, "metro_p50": 127313.6, "metro_p75": 132368.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56110.0, "metro_p50": 65608.0, "metro_p75": 69298.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75633.75, "metro_p50": 96180.0, "metro_p75": 113511.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53932.0, "metro_p50": 69795.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48543.0, "metro_p50": 57874.0, "metro_p75": 76697.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78078.0, "metro_p50": 83396.0, "metro_p75": 88654.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 46954.6, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65866.0, "metro_p50": 96999.0, "metro_p75": 114173.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63068.0, "metro_p50": 87612.4, "metro_p75": 95853.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 84985.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 104493.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65211.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 132363.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 82616.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 76907.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60169.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67827.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lincoln-ne-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lincoln-ne-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "lincoln-ne-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:10.180154+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lincoln-ne-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lincoln-ne-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}