{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lima-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 344, "label": "Lima, OH MSA", "slug": "lima-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:47:18.789410+00:00", "headline": "Lima restaurants face tight labor, diverging FOH/BOH pay paths.", "headline_summary": "Allen County unemployment near 3.0-3.3% is tighter than Ohio's 3.4% average, even as local server pay climbs to $33,908 while line cook pay falls to $31,312.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Allen County unemployment", "value": "3.0-3.3%", "context": "vs 3.4% Ohio average, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Lima MSA payroll growth", "value": "+100 jobs", "context": "July 2026, total 52,500 nonfarm jobs"}, {"label": "Ohio tipped minimum wage", "value": "$5.50/hr", "context": "rises to $5.70 in 2027 via CPI index"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "vs ~72% pre-pandemic baseline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lima's tight labor pool outpaces the state average.", "body": "Allen County unemployment near 3.0-3.3% versus Ohio's 3.4% statewide rate means restaurant employers are drawing from a shallower candidate pool than peers elsewhere in the state, with manufacturing and healthcare employers competing directly for the same entry-level workers."}, {"headline": "Server pay is moving while kitchen pay lags behind.", "body": "Local server advertised pay rose significantly to a $33,908 median, nearly matching the $35,024 national figure, while line cook pay fell to $31,312 locally against a $37,421 national median \u2014 a widening front-of-house/back-of-house gap that may reflect tip-income competitiveness pressures amid steady cook demand."}, {"headline": "Ohio's wage floor is a planning input.", "body": "Constitutional CPI-indexing locks in the 2027 jump to $11.40 non-tipped and $5.70 tipped, removing political uncertainty from labor cost forecasting. Current conditions suggest building three-year wage budgets around this known schedule."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage compliance burden is rising.", "body": "Ohio's $30-per-month threshold for tipped status, combined with the employer's duty to make up any shortfall to $11.00, puts documentation pressure on operators during seasonal tip-income swings. The federal 80/20 rule's repeal adds a second compliance layer specific to side-work hours."}], "local_conditions": "Allen County's unemployment rate sits near 3.0-3.3% through mid-2026, a tighter labor pool than the Ohio average of 3.4%, while nonfarm payrolls in the Lima MSA grew only marginally \u2014 up just 100 jobs in July to 52,500 \u2014 signaling a market with little slack to absorb new restaurant hiring demand. Ohio's indexed minimum wage climb to $11.00/$5.50 (non-tipped/tipped) in 2026, with a further step to $11.40/$5.70 confirmed for 2027, is layering predictable wage-floor inflation onto an already thin applicant pool shaped by manufacturing employers like Ford's Lima engine plant competing for the same entry-level workers.", "implications": "Tight local unemployment combined with a locked-in annual minimum wage escalator means labor cost as a share of revenue will climb on a predictable schedule set by the wage-floor increases, giving operators a rare multi-year runway to build budgets around known wage floors. Front-of-house economics face added complexity from the federal 80/20 rule's withdrawal, which lets Lima operators pay the $2.13 federal tipped wage for side work without the old 20% cap \u2014 a lever Ohio's $5.50 tipped floor doesn't eliminate but may make more attractive during slow dayparts. Consider reviewing side-work scheduling and tip-credit documentation now, before 2027's wage step compresses margins further.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Allen County's unemployment rate holds near 3.0-3.3% through the winter off-season or drifts upward as seasonal hospitality demand eases \u2014 a rise would ease hiring pressure but also signal softening consumer demand for dining out."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Line cook advertised pay has fallen locally even as BLS projects 12% national growth in cook employment through 2035. A continued local-national pay divergence may point to a recruiting disadvantage versus other Ohio metros competing for the same BOH talent."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Track how Lima operators respond to the 80/20 rule's withdrawal in practice \u2014 any shift toward scheduling more side-work hours at the $2.13 federal tipped rate would directly lower FOH cash wage costs but could accelerate turnover if take-home pay drops."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Food & Hospitality accounted for 4 of Ohio's 2026 WARN notices and 690 affected workers statewide; monitor whether any Lima-area multi-unit operators appear in future filings as a signal of sector-specific distress beyond normal turnover."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31326.0, "metro_p50": 34000.0, "metro_p75": 42181.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 36156.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 54080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24560.0, "metro_p50": 26451.0, "metro_p75": 27420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 31312.0, "metro_p75": 32953.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44163.5, "metro_p50": 57095.0, "metro_p75": 63615.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27795.0, "metro_p50": 33908.0, "metro_p75": 34461.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25578.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "LimaOhio.com / ODJFS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Allen County unemployment rate and Lima MSA payroll figures"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio minimum and tipped wage rates for 2026 and 2027"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped wage rule"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover rate rising to approximately 80%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projected 12% growth in cook employment through 2035"}, {"source_name": "layoffdata.com", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio Food & Hospitality WARN notices in 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lima-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lima-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:08.364725+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lima-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lima-oh-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}