{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 344, "label": "Lima, OH MSA", "slug": "lima-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:50:40.169272+00:00", "headline": "Lima outpaces state jobless rate as wage gains split sharply by sector.", "headline_summary": "Allen County unemployment near 3.0-3.3% beats Ohio's 3.4% and the national 4.1%, even as manufacturing and nursing pay climb while administrative and food-service wages fall.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Allen County unemployment", "value": "3.0-3.3%", "context": "vs 3.4% Ohio, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force participation", "value": "61.2%", "context": "vs 61.8% national; shrinking since mid-2025"}, {"label": "Ohio WARN-affected workers, manufacturing", "value": "3,159", "context": "of 7,207 total statewide in 2026"}, {"label": "Lima MSA nonfarm payrolls", "value": "52,500", "context": "July 2026, up 100 from June"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lima's jobless rate undercuts the state's cooling narrative.", "body": "Allen County unemployment near 3.0-3.3% compares favorably with Ohio's 3.4% and the national 4.1%, even as Ohio shed 5,000 jobs statewide in September. That divergence positions Lima as a relative bright spot worth highlighting in regional economic development pitches, though it also means local employers may feel earlier and more acutely any national slowdown hits home."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing and nursing pay gains outrun the metro's service sector.", "body": "Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay rose significantly to $39,145 and Registered Nurse pay climbed to $99,840, both outpacing stable-to-declining administrative and food-service wages locally. Concentration of wage momentum in production and clinical roles mirrors the national pattern of healthcare-led hiring strength and suggests Lima's recovery is distributed unevenly across its basket of employers."}, {"headline": "Office and food-service pay erosion signals strained household spending power.", "body": "Administrative Assistant pay fell moderately to $37,440 and Food Service Worker pay dropped significantly to $29,640 in Lima, both well below their national counterparts. Combined with Ohio's inflation outpacing wage growth statewide, this points to softening discretionary spending capacity among a meaningful share of metro households, a factor retail and hospitality operators should weigh when assessing local demand."}, {"headline": "CDL driver and construction pay strength tracks logistics and building activity.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver pay rose moderately to $81,526, now exceeding the national median, while Construction Laborer pay climbed to $41,600. Sustained advertised-pay gains in both occupations are consistent with continued freight and construction demand tied to regional manufacturing investment, a signal economic development officials can point to when discussing infrastructure capacity."}], "local_conditions": "Allen County unemployment has tightened to roughly 3.0-3.3% through the first half of 2026, outperforming both Ohio (3.4%) and the national rate (4.1%), even as the state as a whole recorded its first labor-force contraction since July 2025. Local wage signals point to a bifurcated economy: manufacturing and nursing pay are rising at a significant clip (Manufacturing Production Worker up to $39,145, Registered Nurse up to $99,840), while office and service roles such as Administrative Assistant ($37,440) and Food Service Worker ($29,640) are posting notable declines, consistent with the statewide pattern of service-sector stagnation amid inflation-adjusted wage erosion.", "implications": "Lima's unemployment edge over state and national rates signals a tighter local labor pool than headline Ohio figures suggest, a relevant data point for economic development corps courting employers who need assurance of workforce availability for expansion projects. The pay divergence between manufacturing/healthcare gains and administrative/food-service declines suggests consumer-facing and back-office segments of the local economy carry less pricing power than production and clinical employers, a distinction that matters for chambers assessing which sectors can absorb further cost pressure. Commerce leaders should consider monitoring whether Ford Engine Plant and regional healthcare systems' wage momentum spills into adjacent supplier and service businesses, or remains isolated to a narrow set of employers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Ohio's labor force participation rate (61.2%) sits below the national rate (61.8%) and has been shrinking since mid-2025. Watch whether Allen County's participation trend diverges from the state pattern, since a shrinking labor pool alongside low unemployment would constrain capacity for any new facility expansion."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings show manufacturing accounting for 23 of 64 Ohio notices and 3,159 of 7,207 affected workers in 2026. Lima's recent FedEx (56 workers) and CAM Industrial Solutions (95 workers) notices suggest local exposure to this sector-specific churn warrants continued tracking heading into year-end."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Ohio's inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in September while wages lagged, a dynamic playing out locally in declining administrative and food-service pay. Government economists should track whether this gap narrows or widens as it bears directly on consumer spending projections for the metro."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Job ads within 20 miles of downtown Lima, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, numbered 1,909 as of late May, a figure worth re-checking for late-2026 movement. A meaningful rise or fall in that count, read alongside national Job Postings Index growth of 2.8% year-over-year, would help clarify whether Lima's hiring demand is accelerating or holding steady."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23400.0, "metro_p50": 29262.2, "metro_p75": 32586.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25071.75, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 28600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30543.25, "metro_p50": 38000.0, "metro_p75": 41000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60624.5, "metro_p50": 81526.0, "metro_p75": 93176.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29614.0, "metro_p50": 35138.6, "metro_p75": 44395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37649.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32330.0, "metro_p50": 39145.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33701.0, "metro_p50": 37119.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25201.0, "metro_p50": 29640.0, "metro_p75": 31980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30950.0, "metro_p50": 38709.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57552.0, "metro_p50": 58355.0, "metro_p75": 58355.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81537.5, "metro_p50": 99840.0, "metro_p75": 107120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 109019.75, "metro_p50": 148707.4, "metro_p75": 163904.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 97990.0, "metro_p50": 130000.0, "metro_p75": 147772.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62751.0, "metro_p50": 71095.0, "metro_p75": 74033.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70743.0, "metro_p50": 88389.6, "metro_p75": 97940.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46192.0, "metro_p50": 51579.6, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47328.25, "metro_p50": 59245.2, "metro_p75": 68739.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71747.0, "metro_p50": 82820.8, "metro_p75": 93502.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31266.0, "metro_p50": 46917.0, "metro_p75": 50872.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59580.5, "metro_p50": 86414.0, "metro_p75": 97593.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51862.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79080.0, "metro_p50": 96332.0, "metro_p75": 107940.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 72207.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33519.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54829.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 44304.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52982.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57303.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 73365.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27420.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62732.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "LimaOhio.com", "source_url": null, "statement": "Allen County unemployment rate trend through 2026"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio unemployment rate 3.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio labor force participation rate of 61.2% vs national 61.8%"}, {"source_name": "layoffdata.com", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ohio WARN filings total 64 notices, 7,207 workers in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lima MSA nonfarm payrolls at 52,500 in July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment stable at 4.1% in October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:07.826874+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}