{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 344, "label": "Lima, OH MSA", "slug": "lima-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:43.052100+00:00", "headline": "Lima's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking, not strengthening, labor pool.", "headline_summary": "Allen County unemployment fell to 3.7% from 4.6% a year ago, but Ohio's labor force has contracted by 95,000 workers statewide, and Lima manufacturing pay is sliding even as healthcare wages climb.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Allen County unemployment rate", "value": "3.7%", "context": "Down from 4.6% a year earlier (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force change", "value": "-95,000", "context": "Year-over-year decline despite population growth"}, {"label": "Lima MSA net job gain, 2025", "value": "+310 jobs", "context": "vs. Mansfield -320, Springfield -1,440"}, {"label": "Manufacturing worker pay, Lima", "value": "$35,647", "context": "Down moderately vs. stable $39,520 national"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling joblessness masks a shrinking labor pool, not rising demand.", "body": "Allen County's unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 4.6% a year ago, but this tracks Ohio's broader pattern where the statewide labor force shrank by 95,000 workers even as job growth barely moved. Commerce leaders evaluating site-selection or expansion pitches should treat this rate as a caution flag on worker availability rather than a growth signal."}, {"headline": "Lima is outrunning peer Ohio metros, but from a fragile base.", "body": "Lima's net gain of 310 jobs in 2025 stands out against losses of 320 in Mansfield and 1,440 in Springfield, a genuinely quotable local-momentum story. That outperformance follows absorption of the Dana plant's 295-worker layoff and other 2025 WARN filings, meaning the comparison flatters a metro still digesting disruption rather than one accelerating from strength."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay is softening locally while national manufacturing wages hold firm.", "body": "Advertised pay for production and assembler roles in Lima is down moderately even as the same occupation nationally sits stable, a divergence worth flagging for economic development messaging given manufacturing remains the metro's third-largest sector. This may suggest softer local demand for entry-tier manufacturing labor even as healthcare and skilled-trade pay accelerate."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and professional pay gains point to where local momentum concentrates.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly locally (to $99,684) alongside strong gains in accounting and account management roles, consistent with Education and Health Services' position as Lima's largest employment sector at 11,100 workers. Commerce and workforce leaders assessing where local purchasing power is actually growing should look to these sectors rather than the broader headline unemployment figure."}], "local_conditions": "Allen County's unemployment rate has tightened to 3.7% as of August 2026, down from 4.6% a year earlier, even as nonfarm employment growth across the Lima MSA remains modest at roughly 52,500 jobs and manufacturing wages here are moving opposite the national trend, declining while national manufacturing pay holds stable. Layoff activity tied to Dana, CAM Industrial Solutions, FedEx and Ohio Eagle Distributing over the past 18 months has thinned the labor pool even as the metro posted a net gain of 310 jobs in 2025, outperforming peer Ohio metros like Mansfield and Springfield that lost jobs outright.", "implications": "Lima's falling unemployment rate reads as tightening on its surface, but combined with Ohio's statewide labor force contraction of 95,000 workers year-over-year, the more defensible read is a shrinking available workforce rather than surging local demand \u2014 a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders interpret the metro's capacity to support new investment. Manufacturing production worker pay is down moderately in Lima even as healthcare (RN wages up significantly) and skilled trades (CDL drivers, accountants) post gains, suggesting the metro's growth is concentrating in service and logistics niches rather than broad-based industrial expansion. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce planners should track whether Lima's relative outperformance against Mansfield and Springfield reflects durable diversification or simply a smaller base recovering from the Dana-related disruption.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Allen County's unemployment rate continues falling through October reporting \u2014 if it tracks with further labor force contraction rather than payroll growth, it strengthens the case that the tightening is a supply story, not a demand one."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Ohio's WARN activity remains concentrated in manufacturing (23 notices statewide) and transportation; any new filing naming a Lima-area employer would be the clearest local test of whether 2025's disruption (Dana, CAM Industrial, FedEx) has fully run its course."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National hiring cooled sharply in September (29,000 jobs added, well below the 45,000 trailing average) with wage growth falling behind inflation for the first time since 2021. If that national softening reaches Ohio's manufacturing and transportation sectors, Lima's relative 2025 outperformance could compress quickly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio's labor force participation rate (61.3%) continues trailing the national rate (61.6%), and both lag pre-2024 levels. Local commerce and workforce boards should monitor whether participation stabilizes or continues eroding, since it directly constrains any employer's ability to staff planned local expansions."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23269.0, "metro_p50": 27581.0, "metro_p75": 32153.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25071.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29073.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28826.75, "metro_p50": 38000.0, "metro_p75": 41000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59261.0, "metro_p50": 81796.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29367.0, "metro_p50": 32683.0, "metro_p75": 39043.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 65010.0, "metro_p75": 71297.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30906.0, "metro_p50": 35646.6, "metro_p75": 39145.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34395.0, "metro_p50": 37623.6, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25201.0, "metro_p50": 29640.0, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30950.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 40430.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 38442.0, "metro_p75": 40523.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57923.5, "metro_p50": 58355.0, "metro_p75": 61617.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81640.0, "metro_p50": 99684.0, "metro_p75": 107042.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 108354.25, "metro_p50": 149362.6, "metro_p75": 164880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 98957.0, "metro_p50": 133120.0, "metro_p75": 150800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 74033.0, "metro_p75": 74033.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70955.0, "metro_p50": 89025.0, "metro_p75": 98307.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44208.5, "metro_p50": 52064.0, "metro_p75": 70150.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46856.5, "metro_p50": 59247.8, "metro_p75": 69841.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70928.5, "metro_p50": 82546.4, "metro_p75": 92484.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32163.75, "metro_p50": 48378.8, "metro_p75": 52751.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56840.5, "metro_p50": 97012.0, "metro_p75": 139153.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52327.0, "metro_p50": 67000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79340.0, "metro_p50": 96332.0, "metro_p75": 107719.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55292.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 71652.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33456.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54829.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 50020.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51526.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55466.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 72800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 28317.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65923.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:16.547351+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lima-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}