{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lexington-fayette-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 269, "label": "Lexington-Fayette, KY MSA", "slug": "lexington-fayette-ky-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:49:49.122616+00:00", "headline": "Lexington outpaces Kentucky's stalled labor market", "headline_summary": "Fayette County's 3.8% unemployment rate undercuts the statewide 4.7% figure even as Kentucky posts no net job growth, with skilled-trades wages climbing while local financial and operations pay slides.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Fayette County unemployment", "value": "3.8%", "context": "vs 4.7% statewide, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Kentucky statewide payrolls", "value": "-800 jobs", "context": "September 2026, despite labor force growth"}, {"label": "Kentucky WARN-affected workers", "value": "2,654 in 2026", "context": "Down 60% vs 2025"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "-0.11%", "context": "Sept 2025\u2013Sept 2026, nominal 3.6% vs CPI"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lexington is outrunning the state and holding steady.", "body": "Fayette County's 3.8% unemployment rate sits roughly a full point below the statewide 4.7% figure, even as Kentucky posted no net job growth over the past two years. That gap is consistent with the metro's large, stable institutional employers \u2014 UK, state government, Toyota \u2014 buffering it from the slow-hire conditions affecting manufacturing, finance and insurance statewide."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades are the clearest wage story in the metro.", "body": "HVAC technician pay rose significantly locally and electricians and construction laborers posted moderate gains, even as Lexington trails the national median in most of these roles. That pattern is consistent with sustained demand tied to Toyota's Georgetown expansion and broader regional construction activity, a relevant data point for commerce leaders tracking local capital investment."}, {"headline": "White-collar pay softness is a local divergence worth tracking.", "body": "Financial analyst pay fell significantly and operations manager and marketing specialist pay also declined locally, even as national figures for these roles held flat or rose. That divergence may suggest Lexington's professional-services segment is cooling faster than its production and healthcare sectors, a pattern distinct from national trends emphasizing information-sector softness."}, {"headline": "Real wages are eroding even where headline numbers look strong.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth in the same period, and Kentucky wages are not keeping pace with rising costs statewide. Even in a relatively tight Lexington labor market, that gap is relevant to consumer spending capacity and household confidence feeding local retail and services demand."}], "local_conditions": "Fayette County's unemployment rate held at 3.8% in September, among the lowest in Kentucky alongside Campbell County, even as the statewide rate stayed flat at 4.7% and statewide payrolls contracted by 800 jobs \u2014 a divergence that points to Lexington's institutional anchors (University of Kentucky, state government, Toyota) insulating the metro from the slow-hire conditions affecting the rest of Kentucky. Advertised pay across the metro shows broad-based upward movement in skilled trades and technical roles \u2014 HVAC technicians, electricians, software engineers, registered nurses \u2014 while white-collar administrative and analyst roles (financial analyst, operations manager, marketing specialist) show local pay declines, suggesting demand is concentrating in production, healthcare and technical skill ahead of office-based functions.", "implications": "Lexington's sub-4% unemployment rate alongside Kentucky's weakest hiring pace since the Great Recession suggests the metro is outperforming the state on labor market tightness, a signal relevant to site-selection and expansion conversations commerce leaders have with prospective employers. Toyota's Georgetown facility completion this fall and continued strength in healthcare wages (registered nurse pay up significantly) indicate the metro's manufacturing and health sectors remain the clearest engines of local economic activity, even as white-collar pay softens in finance and operations functions. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders should frame Lexington's pitch around institutional stability and skilled-trades wage momentum, a message that holds even as broad job growth stays constrained statewide.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Toyota Kentucky's new Georgetown facility is slated for completion this fall; watch whether its ramp-up shows up in regional manufacturing and construction wage data over the next two months, a signal of whether the metro's skilled-trades momentum is sustained or front-loaded."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Kentucky's 'low hire, low fire' pattern, as described by regional workforce officials, has hit manufacturing and finance hardest statewide. Watch whether that caution spreads to Lexington's professional-services sector, where financial analyst and operations manager pay already show local softness."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Labor force participation rose statewide for four consecutive months. Track whether Fayette County's labor force shows similar growth in upcoming Kentucky Center for Statistics releases, since sustained participation gains alongside low unemployment would reinforce a tightening-market narrative for the metro."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated, with 3,860 notices affecting over 340,000 workers through late October, while Kentucky's WARN-affected worker count is down 60% year over year. Any new Kentucky filing that breaks this favorable trend would be a meaningful signal for metro economic development tracking."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 33081.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24365.0, "metro_p50": 27092.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30345.0, "metro_p50": 36374.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59075.0, "metro_p50": 78992.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28973.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36937.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32931.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40285.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57665.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 71077.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37114.0, "metro_p75": 41454.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31769.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38647.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28829.0, "metro_p50": 32580.0, "metro_p75": 33696.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33316.75, "metro_p50": 39532.0, "metro_p75": 41621.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33210.0, "metro_p50": 40563.2, "metro_p75": 46763.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54053.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 70517.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76735.0, "metro_p50": 95500.0, "metro_p75": 105516.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111201.25, "metro_p50": 155783.0, "metro_p75": 176603.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86787.0, "metro_p50": 121868.2, "metro_p75": 145549.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55281.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 73703.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61979.25, "metro_p50": 82336.0, "metro_p75": 88515.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49692.0, "metro_p50": 61403.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47670.0, "metro_p50": 55884.4, "metro_p75": 64604.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72197.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 91427.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 46379.0, "metro_p75": 53255.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59269.0, "metro_p50": 83110.4, "metro_p75": 97938.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55780.75, "metro_p50": 74500.0, "metro_p75": 74500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75561.5, "metro_p50": 95233.2, "metro_p75": 109200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 59155.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 78991.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35236.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62504.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 98501.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 58234.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64911.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61996.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "NKyTribune", "source_url": null, "statement": "Fayette County unemployment rate of 3.8% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Kentucky Center for Statistics / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky statewide unemployment held at 4.7%, payrolls down 800 in September"}, {"source_name": "6amCity employer data", "source_url": null, "statement": "Toyota Kentucky Georgetown facility completion fall 2026"}, {"source_name": "KentuckianaWorks / Sarah Ehresman", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky no net job growth over two years, slowest hiring pace since Great Recession"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}, {"source_name": "Kentucky WARN Act tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky WARN notices down 60% in affected workers year over year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lexington-fayette-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lexington-fayette-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "lexington-fayette-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:05.657866+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lexington-fayette-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lexington-fayette-ky-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}