{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lewiston-id-wa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 241, "label": "Lewiston, ID-WA MSA", "slug": "lewiston-id-wa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T06:44:14.646847+00:00", "headline": "Lewiston cooks stay scarce as broader hiring cools.", "headline_summary": "Metro nonfarm jobs fell 0.7% year-over-year even as north central Idaho cook postings averaged 41 days to fill, while local Restaurant Manager pay jumped to $69,500 against a $59,724 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nez Perce County unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "Up from 3.2% in July 2026"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm employment", "value": "-0.7%", "context": "Year-over-year decline, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Cook posting duration, north central ID", "value": "41 days", "context": "Median time-to-fill, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Idaho statewide unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "Unchanged month-over-month, Sept. 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Back-of-house vacancies are outlasting front-of-house ones.", "body": "North central Idaho cook postings averaged 41 days to fill in September against a metro market where overall nonfarm employment contracted 0.7% year-over-year. Elongated cook vacancies typically force overtime premiums or reduced hours \u2014 a direct labor-cost pressure even as the broader job market cools."}, {"headline": "Server pay is falling while national server pay holds flat.", "body": "Metro Server advertised pay dropped significantly to $28,490 against a stable $35,024 national median \u2014 a gap that may reflect softening limited-service demand locally, with Idaho's $3.35 tipped cash wage holding steady. Operators benchmarking server compensation against national figures risk overpaying relative to local market reality."}, {"headline": "Manager pay is diverging sharply from the rest of the scale.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager advertised pay rose significantly to $69,500 locally, outpacing the $59,724 national median by roughly 16%, while Assistant Restaurant Manager pay declined to $38,347. Widening management-tier pay gaps suggest employers are concentrating retention investment at the top of the leadership pipeline, leaving supervisory levels comparatively under-invested."}, {"headline": "Federal tipped-wage rule change creates new FOH labor-cost flexibility.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators apply tip credit to non-tip-producing side work without a 20% cap, a federal change that applies in Idaho absent a state-level override. This may ease front-of-house wage obligations during slower shifts, offering a lever separate from the base wage increases needed to fix cook recruitment."}], "local_conditions": "Lewiston metro nonfarm employment fell 0.7% both month-over-month and year-over-year in September, even as Nez Perce County unemployment ticked up to 3.3% from 3.2% in July \u2014 a mild softening against Idaho's statewide 3.6% rate. Against that backdrop, cook postings in north central Idaho averaged 41 days to fill in September, signaling back-of-house labor supply remains tight even as overall metro job growth cools.", "implications": "Softening nonfarm employment alongside stubbornly long cook vacancy durations points to a labor market where overall demand is cooling but kitchen talent remains scarce \u2014 a divergence that complicates flat-rate wage planning across front-of-house and back-of-house roles. Metro advertised pay data reinforces this split: Line Cook pay is up moderately to $37,440 while Server pay fell significantly to $28,490, suggesting operators are reallocating compensation toward harder-to-fill kitchen positions ahead of broader pay increases. Consider reviewing whether current compensation structures reflect this FOH/BOH divergence instead of applying uniform raises across the wage scale.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Nez Perce County unemployment has risen two consecutive months (3.2% to 3.3%) while metro nonfarm payrolls contracted. Watch whether this becomes a trend that loosens front-of-house candidate pools even as back-of-house roles stay tight."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Cook vacancy durations of 41 days locally, alongside a national BLS projection of 12% cook employment growth through 2035, point to structural scarcity beyond a seasonal blip. Expect continued upward pressure on Line Cook advertised pay, which is already up moderately to $37,440."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Federal 80/20 rule withdrawal takes effect as Idaho's $7.25 minimum and $3.35 tipped wage remain unchanged since 2009. Operators should monitor whether competitors in the metro begin reducing effective front-of-house cash wages for side-work hours, which could reshape local Server pay benchmarks further."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Southwestern Idaho full-service postings rose year-over-year while limited-service postings fell \u2014 a pattern that, if it reaches Lewiston, would intensify wage competition for servers and hosts even as overall metro hiring demand softens. Track whether local full-service openings, measured by job ads (a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings), follow this statewide shift."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32386.0, "metro_p50": 38347.0, "metro_p75": 50565.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 55079.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31491.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 33342.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43046.5, "metro_p50": 69500.0, "metro_p75": 89500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 28490.4, "metro_p75": 35630.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30680.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lewiston metro nonfarm employment fell 0.7% month-over-month and year-over-year in September"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nez Perce County unemployment at 3.3% in August 2026, up from 3.2% in July"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor LMI", "source_url": null, "statement": "North central Idaho cook postings averaged 41-day fill duration in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 rule for tipped wage in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% from 2025-2035 versus 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Idaho Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Idaho statewide unemployment held at 3.6% in September 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lewiston-id-wa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lewiston-id-wa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:25:04.014672+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lewiston-id-wa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lewiston-id-wa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}