{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lawton-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 302, "label": "Lawton, OK MSA", "slug": "lawton-ok-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:34:24.406443+00:00", "headline": "Lawton restaurant pay splits: hourly up, management down sharply.", "headline_summary": "Server pay rose to a $28,143 metro median while Restaurant Manager pay fell significantly to $52,500, as Lawton's 4.40% unemployment rate sits a full point above last year's 3.20%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lawton MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.40%", "context": "vs 3.20% one year ago, 4.1% nationally"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager advertised pay", "value": "$52,500", "context": "Down significantly; national median $59,618"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026 (BLS JOLTS)"}, {"label": "Oklahoma firms planning no wage hikes", "value": "33%+", "context": "Up from 15% in 2023 (KC Fed survey)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is sliding while front-of-house climbs.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell significantly to a $52,500 metro median and Assistant Manager pay dropped to $29,104, even as Server ($28,143) and Line Cook ($27,832) rates moved up. Compression this tight narrows the financial incentive to advance into supervisory roles, a retention risk worth tracking against exit interview data."}, {"headline": "Comanche County's shrinking labor force cuts both ways.", "body": "A declining civilian labor force through summer 2026 reduces the applicant pool, but it coincides with Oklahoma's flat-to-negative restaurant job growth statewide, meaning demand softness may be absorbing most of the supply contraction. Staffing swings this fall look more demand-driven than labor-shortage-driven."}, {"headline": "Goodyear's wage floor is reshaping the local hourly labor pool.", "body": "Production associate postings at $20.64\u2013$23.30/hour sit well above Crew ($24,666 annualized) and Shift Manager ($27,723, down significantly) equivalents on an hourly basis, giving entry-level and shift-lead candidates a credible exit ramp from restaurant work. Expect continued pull on BOH and shift-supervisor retention until restaurant pay narrows that hourly gap."}, {"headline": "Statewide wage softening buys a rare retention window.", "body": "Over a third of Oklahoma firms report no planned wage increases heading into 2026, per Kansas City Fed survey data, down from historical norms, and SQ 832's failure leaves the federal minimum wage floor intact. Lower competitive pay pressure this year may create room to redirect budget toward scheduling tools and retention bonuses rather than across-the-board raises."}], "local_conditions": "Lawton's unemployment rate held at 4.40% in the latest reading, down slightly month-over-month but still well above the 3.20% level recorded a year ago, pointing to a metro labor market that has cooled faster than the national 4.1% backdrop. Comanche County's civilian labor force contracted through summer months while Goodyear's $20.64\u2013$23.30/hour production postings continue to compete directly with restaurant employers for the same hourly workforce, even as statewide restaurant job growth sits flat heading into fall.", "implications": "Softer labor force participation alongside flat Oklahoma restaurant payroll growth suggests this metro's staffing challenge is shifting from pure availability to retention and scheduling precision, particularly as national data shows restaurant job openings falling from 916,000 to 673,000 since January. Divergent local pay signals \u2014 Server and Line Cook advertised rates rising while Restaurant Manager and Assistant Manager pay fall significantly \u2014 point to compression that could complicate promotion pipelines and FOH/BOH pay equity. Consider reviewing management-tier advertised pay against hourly FOH roles to confirm the compression is intentional rather than a byproduct of underinvestment in supervisory recruitment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "October's BLS Metropolitan Area Employment release will give the first real post-summer read on whether Lawton's unemployment uptick stabilizes or continues tracking above the national 4.1% rate. A continued gap would support tighter hiring standards over wage increases for entry-level roles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manager-tier advertised pay fell significantly across Assistant Manager, GM, and Shift Manager roles this month. Watch whether this reflects genuine demand softness or recruiting difficulty being masked by lower postings, especially as Q4 holiday staffing ramps begin."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Fort Sill and Goodyear remain the metro's dominant non-restaurant wage anchors. Any hiring surge or layoff signal from either employer would meaningfully shift the local hourly labor pool available to restaurant operators within weeks."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National restaurant job openings have fallen by roughly a third since January 2026, suggesting the frenzied hiring competition of recent years is easing. If that trend holds locally through Q4, operators may find more room to be selective in BOH hiring without raising advertised rates further."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21215.0, "metro_p50": 29104.4, "metro_p75": 33586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 32475.0, "metro_p50": 34751.0, "metro_p75": 51928.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20545.0, "metro_p50": 24666.0, "metro_p75": 24960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 27832.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46098.75, "metro_p50": 52500.0, "metro_p75": 57500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23665.0, "metro_p50": 28142.8, "metro_p75": 30594.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25805.0, "metro_p50": 27723.4, "metro_p75": 29900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "lawton-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "lawton-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:32:07.560172+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lawton-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lawton-ok-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}