{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lawrence-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 228, "label": "Lawrence, KS MSA", "slug": "lawrence-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:49:09.513082+00:00", "headline": "Lawrence labor pool tightens as participation pulls back.", "headline_summary": "Kansas labor force participation fell to 66.4% in September while Douglas County unemployment edged up to 4.2% in July, a combination pointing to worker availability as the metro's binding constraint.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Douglas County unemployment", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 3.6% in May 2026 (BLS/LAUS)"}, {"label": "Kansas labor force participation", "value": "66.4%", "context": "Down month-over-month, Sept. 2026 (KDOL)"}, {"label": "Kansas unemployment rate", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Unchanged since August 2026, below 4.1% U.S. rate"}, {"label": "Douglas County avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,096", "context": "16th of 105 KS counties, as of Dec. 2025 (BLS)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Participation decline matters more than the unemployment number.", "body": "Kansas labor force participation fell to 66.4% in September even as unemployment held flat at 3.8%, indicating fewer residents are actively working or seeking work. For a metro built around University of Kansas and county employment, this points to a structural capacity constraint distinct from a cyclical demand problem."}, {"headline": "Public-sector pay is doing quiet stabilizing work.", "body": "Douglas County's preserved 3.4% market pay pool for county employees arrives as statewide government payrolls shed 3,200 jobs year-over-year, a divergence that signals local public employment is being actively managed to hold steady independent of state trends. That stability provides a demand floor for local consumer spending even as other sectors cool."}, {"headline": "Retail and food-service pay softness tracks a statewide pattern.", "body": "Local advertised pay for customer service representatives and food service workers is down significantly, consistent with Kansas Beige Book reporting of declining retail hours and part-time positions statewide. Softening in consumer-facing pay is a leading indicator worth watching for local retail spending strength heading into the holiday season."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and technical pay point to where capacity is tightening.", "body": "HVAC technician pay rose significantly locally and registered nurse and software engineer pay rose at a moderate-to-significant clip, aligning with the state's reported labor stress in durables manufacturing and healthcare. These categories illustrate where the metro's limited labor supply is most acutely felt, a relevant consideration for any employer evaluating local expansion."}], "local_conditions": "Douglas County unemployment ticked up to 4.2% in July from 3.6% metro-area readings earlier in the year, while Kansas labor force participation slipped to 66.4% in September \u2014 a dynamic consistent with a labor pool constrained by worker availability. Statewide, professional and business services added jobs while government payrolls contracted 3,200 positions year-over-year, a composition shift that mirrors Douglas County's own reliance on a large public and institutional base anchored by the University of Kansas and county government.", "implications": "Flat-to-declining labor force participation alongside a tight 3.8% state unemployment rate suggests the metro's capacity for new business investment may be limited by the available worker pool \u2014 a relevant planning input for commerce leaders weighing expansion incentives or site-selection conversations. Public-sector wage decisions, such as Douglas County's 3.4% market pay pool for county staff, function as a local economic stabilizer during a period when private payrolls statewide are more volatile. Current conditions suggest economic development leaders may want to evaluate workforce participation trends alongside traditional unemployment figures when assessing the metro's readiness for new employer investment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "The Kansas Department of Labor publishes October 2026 state figures on November 20, and BLS metro-level data for Lawrence won't post until December 2. Commerce leaders making near-term decisions should treat current county-level readings as the most current available baseline."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Douglas County's July unemployment uptick to 4.2% bears watching against the broader Kansas rate of 3.8% \u2014 a widening gap over consecutive readings would suggest Lawrence-specific softening distinct from the state trend."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions indicators show momentum flattening (0.19) alongside declining activity, a regional signal that could presage slower local job ad volume, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), in sectors tied to Kansas City commuting patterns."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide manufacturing employers are reportedly increasing overtime and shifts to manage limited workforce availability without adding headcount, per the October Beige Book. Watch whether this labor-constrained pattern extends to Lawrence-area manufacturing and logistics employers as a signal of a capacity ceiling."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28600.0, "metro_p75": 32995.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25231.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31683.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34305.5, "metro_p50": 37773.6, "metro_p75": 37996.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60032.0, "metro_p50": 77631.0, "metro_p75": 90500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28589.0, "metro_p50": 35856.4, "metro_p75": 38462.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 40352.0, "metro_p75": 52850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 68744.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 40040.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35100.0, "metro_p75": 38598.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29303.0, "metro_p50": 30642.0, "metro_p75": 32057.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34854.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 38809.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33090.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42299.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51831.25, "metro_p50": 64480.0, "metro_p75": 69659.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79888.25, "metro_p50": 92281.0, "metro_p75": 105342.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79429.25, "metro_p50": 136450.0, "metro_p75": 140750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 93878.0, "metro_p50": 126428.0, "metro_p75": 144655.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60572.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71000.0, "metro_p50": 81261.8, "metro_p75": 89894.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56873.0, "metro_p50": 82226.2, "metro_p75": 91125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46760.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 84731.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64375.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 75295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 53740.0, "metro_p75": 62308.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51000.0, "metro_p50": 67395.0, "metro_p75": 79005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63231.25, "metro_p50": 66655.0, "metro_p75": 67439.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73070.0, "metro_p50": 88172.0, "metro_p75": 97561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 81120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 58000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37314.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 75000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 89342.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51797.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 45760.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 46934.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30442.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68382.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/lau/", "statement": "Douglas County unemployment at 4.2% in July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": "https://www.dol.ks.gov/", "statement": "Kansas labor force participation at 66.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Douglas County Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Douglas County 3.4% market pay pool for county employees"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": "https://www.dol.ks.gov/", "statement": "Kansas nonfarm payrolls fell 2,100; government jobs down 3,200 year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City", "source_url": "https://www.kansascityfed.org/", "statement": "KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators momentum flattened in September"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cew/", "statement": "Douglas County average weekly wage $1,096, ranked 16th of 105 KS counties"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lawrence-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lawrence-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "lawrence-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:24:55.154414+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lawrence-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lawrence-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}