{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lansing-east-lansing-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 336, "label": "Lansing-East Lansing, MI MSA", "slug": "lansing-east-lansing-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:16.026972+00:00", "headline": "Lansing's labor force is shrinking faster than its jobless rate admits.", "headline_summary": "Lansing-East Lansing posted the steepest employment and labor-force decline of any Michigan metro in June at -2.9%, even as statewide unemployment held near 5.0% and skilled-services pay -- accounting, analytics, nursing -- kept climbing.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lansing MSA monthly employment change", "value": "-2.9%", "context": "Largest decline among Michigan metros, June 2026"}, {"label": "Michigan unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Up from 4.9% in July; 0.9 pts above national 4.1%"}, {"label": "Ingham County avg weekly wage growth", "value": "4.1%", "context": "Q3 2025 YoY, $1,334/week average"}, {"label": "Michigan WARN-notice workers affected", "value": "5,120", "context": "33 filings in 2026, manufacturing-led"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lansing's workforce is shrinking faster than it's going unemployed.", "body": "June's 2.9% monthly drop in both employment and labor force -- the largest among Michigan metros -- means people are leaving the labor market, not just losing jobs. A stable unemployment rate built on a shrinking labor force is a weaker signal than it appears."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness is concentrated, not metro-wide.", "body": "A 350-worker GM layoff notice in Lansing tracks a statewide pattern -- cyclical sectors like manufacturing are projected to lose roughly 16,300 Michigan jobs in 2026 while non-cyclical sectors add about 19,500. Commerce leaders should weight sector exposure before reading any single headline number as whole-economy distress."}, {"headline": "Wage gains in professional roles outpace the metro's weak jobs backdrop.", "body": "Advertised pay for accountants, financial analysts, and data engineers posted significant local increases even as overall employment contracted, suggesting skilled-services demand is holding independent of the manufacturing downturn. That divergence is a more useful read on business climate than the aggregate unemployment rate."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability may be doing more work than it gets credit for.", "body": "Michigan's non-cyclical sectors, including government and health care, are projected to add jobs this year even as manufacturing contracts, and Lansing's concentration of state government and university employment likely provides a buffer other Michigan metros lack. That structural advantage is worth factoring into any regional comparison of economic resilience."}], "local_conditions": "Lansing-East Lansing's labor market contracted sharply in mid-2026, with employment and labor force each falling 2.9% over the month in June -- the steepest decline among Michigan metros -- and July data confirmed continued workforce shrinkage rather than a rebound. A 350-worker GM layoff notice filed in Lansing in August, alongside statewide manufacturing softness, appears consistent with Michigan's broader pattern of cyclical-sector contraction even as the state's unemployment rate has held near 5.0%.", "implications": "Workforce contraction concentrated in manufacturing, combined with a shrinking labor force rather than rising unemployment, signals underlying softness that headline rates mask -- a caution flag for commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment timing. Public-sector and health care employment have proven comparatively stable statewide, suggesting the metro's institutional base (state government, universities, hospitals) may be cushioning what would otherwise be a sharper downturn. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders track labor force participation alongside the unemployment rate before drawing conclusions about local economic health.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Official BLS September unemployment and payroll data for the Lansing MSA releases within the next two to three weeks. Watch whether June-July's labor force contraction reversed or deepened -- a continued decline would confirm a structural rather than seasonal pattern."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Additional WARN notices in manufacturing and transportation/logistics, sectors already accounting for most of Michigan's 2026 filings, would signal whether Lansing's GM-linked layoff is isolated or part of a broader regional pullback."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage position since 2021. Whether Lansing's locally strong gains in professional and skilled-services pay (accounting, analytics, nursing) hold against that national headwind will shape consumer spending capacity metro-wide."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Michigan's minimum wage rises to $15.00 on January 1, 2027. Retailers and hospitality operators in the metro, already showing flat-to-declining advertised pay in cashier and food service roles, face a compressed runway to plan for the increase."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25673.0, "metro_p50": 31443.0, "metro_p75": 35579.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26125.0, "metro_p50": 30394.0, "metro_p75": 32198.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31780.0, "metro_p50": 37618.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59600.0, "metro_p50": 75790.0, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29186.0, "metro_p50": 32861.6, "metro_p75": 38078.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31732.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55917.0, "metro_p50": 70241.0, "metro_p75": 77771.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31360.0, "metro_p50": 36032.2, "metro_p75": 39364.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34464.5, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 42880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26520.0, "metro_p50": 29923.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32593.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 44348.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30401.75, "metro_p50": 39997.6, "metro_p75": 44647.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59846.0, "metro_p50": 61000.0, "metro_p75": 64719.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80511.0, "metro_p50": 97013.2, "metro_p75": 103969.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120570.0, "metro_p50": 154997.6, "metro_p75": 172092.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99179.0, "metro_p50": 140542.4, "metro_p75": 159113.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59422.0, "metro_p50": 71586.2, "metro_p75": 79680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71895.0, "metro_p50": 90997.0, "metro_p75": 102804.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54000.0, "metro_p50": 79466.4, "metro_p75": 86126.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43365.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 69304.0, "metro_p75": 73948.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47261.0, "metro_p50": 60572.0, "metro_p75": 64559.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63356.75, "metro_p50": 95502.8, "metro_p75": 117333.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48388.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 80378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72360.0, "metro_p50": 93292.0, "metro_p75": 105461.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 87500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 109163.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 68731.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65588.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 135000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 109900.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 87500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71561.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33862.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66370.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "lansing-east-lansing-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "lansing-east-lansing-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "lansing-east-lansing-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:32.106743+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lansing-east-lansing-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lansing-east-lansing-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}