{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lancaster-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 220, "label": "Lancaster, PA MSA", "slug": "lancaster-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:46:44.853803+00:00", "headline": "Lancaster's tight labor market shows its first crack.", "headline_summary": "Lancaster County unemployment rose to 2.7% in October from 2.4% in September, still far below the 4.0% state and 4.1% national rates, even as wages have climbed 10.6% since mid-2025.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lancaster County unemployment", "value": "2.7%", "context": "Up from 2.4% in Sept.; vs. 4.0% PA, 4.1% US"}, {"label": "Local wage growth since mid-2025", "value": "10.6%", "context": "EDC Q2 report, since June 2025"}, {"label": "County jobs added, past year", "value": "9,300", "context": "Per EDC Lancaster County Q2 report"}, {"label": "PA statewide job change, September", "value": "-600", "context": "Vs. +12,300 gain in August"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lancaster's jobless rate uptick bears watching.", "body": "The move from 2.4% to 2.7% unemployment keeps the county well below state and national rates, but it is the first notable monthly increase in a market that had been tightening steadily. One month of data does not establish a trend, but economic development officials should track whether November confirms or reverses the direction."}, {"headline": "Wage gains of 10.6% outpace the region's typical pace sharply.", "body": "Average weekly wages rose 2.7% year-over-year through March, but the EDC's reported 10.6% wage increase since June 2025 points to sustained competition for labor across sectors. That combination of strong wage growth and a cooling job-add pace is consistent with a market where demand for workers still exceeds available supply despite slowing headline hiring."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and manufacturing anchor the county's job base.", "body": "Health Care and Social Assistance (22.1% of employment) and Manufacturing (18.0%, with the county's highest average wage at $73,688) remain the two largest pillars of Lancaster's economy. Statewide WARN data shows healthcare and manufacturing also among the sectors with the most layoff notices, a reminder that sector strength and sector volatility can coexist."}, {"headline": "Real wages locally may be outperforming the national erosion story.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose just 1.5% against 3.5% CPI inflation in Q3, but Lancaster's reported wage gains substantially exceed that pace. If sustained, this would mean local households are better insulated from inflation-driven erosion in purchasing power than the national pattern suggests, a meaningful distinction for retailers and consumer-facing businesses assessing local spending capacity."}], "local_conditions": "Lancaster County's unemployment rate rose to 2.7% in October from 2.4% in September, a notable uptick though the rate remains well below both Pennsylvania's 4.0% and the national 4.1%, consistent with a labor market that remains tight by historical standards even as it shows early signs of normalizing. Wage growth of 10.6% since June 2025 alongside a record labor force of 299,500 suggests employers have been competing hard for workers even as broader hiring momentum, reflected in the county's 9,300 jobs added over the past year, shows signs of moderating alongside statewide softness (Pennsylvania lost 600 jobs in September).", "implications": "Rising local wages against a backdrop of slowing statewide job growth signals a labor market still favoring workers on pay even as overall hiring activity cools, a combination that affects both consumer spending capacity and the cost side of local business expansion plans. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation decisions should note that Lancaster's unemployment remains structurally low relative to state and national rates, a sign of durable labor market tightness that points to a sustained pattern beyond a single month. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether October's uptick in the unemployment rate persists into November before drawing conclusions about a broader shift in local economic momentum.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Lancaster County's unemployment rate continues rising in November or reverts toward September's 2.4% level. A sustained climb above 3% would represent a meaningful shift from the tight-labor-market pattern that has defined the county for the past two years."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Pennsylvania's statewide job count fell in September after an August gain, and Pittsburgh lost jobs while Philadelphia barely gained. Lancaster has outperformed both metros; confirmation of continued local resilience against this statewide softening would be a notable divergence worth tracking."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Federal labor force growth has slowed amid reduced immigration flows and rising retirements, a structural dynamic that could tighten labor availability further in a county already running near full employment. Local economic development planning may need to account for slower population-driven labor force growth independent of local business cycles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings in manufacturing (23 notices, 2,934 workers) and healthcare (22 notices, 3,813 workers) over 24 months touch Lancaster's two largest sectors. Local economic development leaders should monitor whether any regional filings affecting Lancaster establishments emerge in the next two months."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23548.0, "metro_p50": 29790.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24862.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31308.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32429.0, "metro_p50": 37582.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57526.0, "metro_p50": 78500.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32048.0, "metro_p50": 34454.6, "metro_p75": 39733.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 40801.8, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57777.5, "metro_p50": 64610.0, "metro_p75": 68330.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33538.0, "metro_p50": 41579.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27858.0, "metro_p50": 29588.4, "metro_p75": 32691.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35561.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 46280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36164.0, "metro_p50": 40737.0, "metro_p75": 44908.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57959.0, "metro_p50": 64487.0, "metro_p75": 66560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84389.0, "metro_p50": 94525.0, "metro_p75": 102632.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93246.0, "metro_p50": 141968.6, "metro_p75": 158289.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101908.75, "metro_p50": 110535.0, "metro_p75": 139556.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58115.75, "metro_p50": 68069.0, "metro_p75": 76804.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76493.5, "metro_p50": 89453.2, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 64941.0, "metro_p75": 70450.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46051.75, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 60256.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70204.0, "metro_p50": 85277.0, "metro_p75": 98803.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34881.0, "metro_p50": 52826.0, "metro_p75": 59478.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58905.75, "metro_p50": 83355.0, "metro_p75": 139588.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 52917.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83002.0, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64044.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 57467.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 48360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 49000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52717.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 50805.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65228.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "LancasterOnline", "source_url": null, "statement": "Lancaster County unemployment rose to 2.7% in October from 2.4% in September"}, {"source_name": "Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pennsylvania unemployment rate at 4.0% in October, 3.6% in September"}, {"source_name": "EDC Lancaster County", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wages up 10.6% since June 2025 and 9,300 workers added over past year"}, {"source_name": "EDC Lancaster County", "source_url": null, "statement": "Health Care (22.1%) and Manufacturing (18.0%) lead county employment shares"}, {"source_name": "Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pennsylvania lost 600 jobs in September after August gain of 12,300"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs. 3.5% CPI gain in Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "lancaster-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "lancaster-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "lancaster-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:24:44.851298+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lancaster-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lancaster-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}