{"schema_version": 1, "id": "lakeland-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 242, "label": "Lakeland, FL MSA", "slug": "lakeland-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:33.190191+00:00", "headline": "Lakeland's unemployment rate diverges sharply from a stabilizing Florida.", "headline_summary": "Lakeland's 5.6% unemployment rate compares to Florida's 4.5% and the national 4.1%, even as the metro's job count grew by just 200 for a second straight month, well off its five-year average pace of roughly 507.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "5.6%", "context": "vs 4.5% Florida, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Monthly job growth", "value": "+200 jobs", "context": "vs ~507/month five-year average"}, {"label": "Education/health employment growth", "value": "4.5% YoY", "context": "Metro's steadiest-growing sector, June-July 2026"}, {"label": "Active business recruitment leads", "value": "42 leads", "context": "Nearly half in manufacturing, per Polk County CFDC"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lakeland's labor market is loosening while Florida's is stabilizing.", "body": "Metro unemployment of 5.6% sits well above Florida's 4.5% state rate and the national 4.1%, a gap that has widened over the past year rather than narrowed. That divergence suggests local, not statewide, dynamics \u2014 worth distinguishing before attributing softness to broader Florida or national trends."}, {"headline": "Job growth has nearly stalled relative to historical pace.", "body": "200 jobs added in August, matching July, compares to a five-year monthly average near 507 \u2014 a pace roughly 60% below trend. Two consecutive flat months is early enough to be noise, but a third would mark a clearer inflection."}, {"headline": "Recruitment pipeline hints at a lag between investment and jobs data.", "body": "Polk County's economic development arm is managing 42 active business leads weighted toward manufacturing and aerospace, sectors tied to the region's stated commerce strategy. Current employment figures don't yet reflect this pipeline, meaning today's soft numbers may understate the metro's near-term trajectory."}, {"headline": "Health and education wages are rising while logistics pay is sliding.", "body": "Education/health employment grew 4.5% year over year while CDL driver and delivery driver advertised pay in the metro moved down, the latter significantly. That split is consistent with a metro where institutional, publicly-anchored sectors are outperforming consumer-facing and freight-exposed ones."}], "local_conditions": "Lakeland's unemployment rate held at 5.6% in August, nearly 1.5 points above its year-ago level and the highest among major Florida metros, even as the metro added a modest 200 jobs for a second straight month \u2014 roughly 40% of its five-year average monthly pace.  Education and health services remains the metro's steadiest growth engine, up 4.5% year over year, while Polk County's 42 active business-recruitment leads (concentrated in manufacturing and aerospace) point to a pipeline of future activity that has not yet shown up in current job counts.", "implications": "Soft local job growth against a statewide pattern of moderating but still-positive momentum (Florida added 59,000 jobs over the year, outpacing the national rate) suggests Lakeland's slowdown is more metro-specific than a reflection of broader state weakness, which matters for how commerce leaders calibrate expansion timing against regional versus local signals. Sector divergence \u2014 steady health and education hiring against reported wage softness in logistics-adjacent roles like CDL driving and delivery \u2014 is consistent with a metro still digesting freight and consumer-demand softness even as its recruitment pipeline targets higher-wage manufacturing and aerospace investment. Commerce leaders evaluating near-term local investment or expansion decisions should consider weighing the metro's elevated unemployment rate against its education/health and recruitment-pipeline resilience, rather than reading the headline rate in isolation.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "A third consecutive month of sub-300 job gains would move Lakeland from a one-quarter anomaly to a trend distinct from the state's gradual stabilization. Watch the September Florida Department of Commerce release for whether the metro's job count breaks from its 200-per-month pattern."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Florida's minimum wage rose to $15/hour on September 30, with tipped wages to $11.98, a scheduled increase rather than a market signal. Local retail and food-service advertised pay, already showing softness in categories like food service worker, may show a mechanical bump that should not be read as improved labor market conditions."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "42 active recruitment leads in manufacturing and aerospace represent a forward-looking signal for local economic development, but conversion timelines for site-selection decisions typically run 6-18 months. Any announced facility commitment in Polk County over the next two months would be the first concrete sign this pipeline is translating into payroll growth."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "CDL truck driver advertised pay in the metro is down moderately and delivery driver pay down significantly, against stable national figures for both roles. Given Polk County's position as a logistics corridor, continued softness here is worth tracking as a leading signal for broader freight and distribution-sector health."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26197.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26714.0, "metro_p50": 29597.0, "metro_p75": 30952.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30804.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 72243.0, "metro_p75": 81640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29433.0, "metro_p50": 32183.0, "metro_p75": 37142.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30232.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38377.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56954.5, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39527.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41400.0, "metro_p75": 44595.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 30818.0, "metro_p75": 34987.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 34823.2, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 40604.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 54542.0, "metro_p75": 57389.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75069.0, "metro_p50": 85207.0, "metro_p75": 91700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119812.0, "metro_p50": 147250.0, "metro_p75": 156000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100392.0, "metro_p50": 128500.0, "metro_p75": 136735.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58451.0, "metro_p50": 60059.0, "metro_p75": 70360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 90000.0, "metro_p75": 100005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58932.25, "metro_p50": 65318.0, "metro_p75": 81359.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34190.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 57500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72643.0, "metro_p75": 87458.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35100.0, "metro_p50": 49000.0, "metro_p75": 52668.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 80180.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61238.0, "metro_p50": 72000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69981.0, "metro_p50": 86076.4, "metro_p75": 101000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 53583.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70483.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36648.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72154.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 48639.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 45469.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66550.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "lakeland-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "lakeland-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "lakeland-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:28.402707+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lakeland-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/lakeland-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}