{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 328, "label": "KY NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:47:27.542537+00:00", "headline": "Rural Kentucky's labor market holds steady, growth stays flat.", "headline_summary": "Kentucky's nonmetro unemployment held at 4.7% in September as the labor force grew by nearly 7,000, even as statewide employment has been essentially flat for 30 months and local manufacturing pay continues to soften.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Kentucky unemployment rate", "value": "4.7%", "context": "Unchanged from August, up 0.2pt vs Sept 2025"}, {"label": "County unemployment spread", "value": "3.2% to 8.5%", "context": "Woodford County low vs Martin/Magoffin counties high"}, {"label": "Kentucky WARN-affected workers", "value": "2,654 in 2026", "context": "Down 60% from 2025 totals"}, {"label": "Manufacturing employment gap", "value": "-2,000 jobs", "context": "Vs August 2025 statewide level"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force growth is masking a non-expansionary economy.", "body": "Kentucky's civilian labor force grew by nearly 7,000 in September and employment rose almost as much, holding unemployment flat at 4.7%. That balance reflects people finding work as they enter the market, consistent with 30 months of flat statewide payrolls."}, {"headline": "Rural trades pay is splitting into winners and losers.", "body": "CDL truck driver pay rose moderately to $82,096 and electrician pay rose significantly to $68,448 in the metro, while manufacturing production worker pay fell to $33,168 and HVAC technician pay dropped to $64,719. Divergence of this size across adjacent trades categories points to uneven capital investment across individual trades."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness tracks the statewide pattern, a local anomaly.", "body": "Kentucky manufacturing employment remains roughly 2,000 jobs below its August 2025 level even as manufacturers added workers over the past three months. Local manufacturing pay declines are consistent with that statewide stall and do not signal metro-specific distress."}, {"headline": "County-level unemployment spread remains wide and persistent.", "body": "Woodford County posted a 3.2%-3.4% jobless rate in recent months against 7.7%-8.5% in Martin and Magoffin counties. That gap, largely unchanged month to month, reflects longstanding structural differences in local economic bases."}], "local_conditions": "Kentucky's nonmetropolitan counties show a labor market holding steady on the surface but stalled underneath: statewide unemployment sat at 4.7% in September, unchanged from August, as the labor force grew by nearly 7,000 and most new entrants found work. Beneath that stability, rural wage pay is diverging by sector \u2014 CDL driver and electrician advertised pay rose moderately to significantly this month while manufacturing production worker, HVAC technician, and retail sales associate pay all declined, consistent with a 30-month stretch of flat statewide employment and manufacturing payrolls that remain below year-ago levels.", "implications": "Rural commerce leaders are operating in what regional workforce officials describe as a \"low hire, low fire\" environment \u2014 a backdrop that favors business stability and planning certainty ahead of expansion risk, particularly for employers in manufacturing and finance where Gen Z entrants report the toughest hiring conditions. Wage softening in manufacturing and HVAC trades alongside gains in trucking and electrical work suggests uneven demand across the trades base that underpins rural supply chains and construction activity. Local economic development organizations may want to track which trade occupations are gaining advertised pay versus losing it as an early signal of where rural capital investment is concentrating.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data release ahead", "body": "Kentucky's October county and metro-level employment figures are not due until December 3, 2026, leaving a reporting gap for sub-state nonmetropolitan trends this cycle. Commerce leaders making near-term investment calls should treat current nonmetro reads as directional and subject to revision."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether CDL driver and electrician pay gains persist into November, which would support a reading that freight and construction-adjacent trades demand is building in rural counties. A reversal would suggest this month's gains were a one-off ad-mix effect."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Health care and social assistance employment has added 9,600 jobs statewide since July 2024 and remains the strongest rural sector. Continued growth there would reinforce health care's role as the structural backbone of rural nonmetro employment even as manufacturing stalls."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Kentucky WARN notices affecting workers are down 60% year over year through 2026, a sign layoff activity has not meaningfully accelerated in-state. A reversal of that trend, particularly in manufacturing or finance, would be a notable break from the current stable pattern."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20126.0, "metro_p50": 23829.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21840.0, "metro_p50": 24703.0, "metro_p75": 26321.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35520.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60920.5, "metro_p50": 82096.0, "metro_p75": 92690.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25571.0, "metro_p50": 29502.0, "metro_p75": 32162.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29466.0, "metro_p50": 35566.8, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56678.0, "metro_p50": 68448.0, "metro_p75": 73835.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30234.0, "metro_p50": 33167.6, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37146.0, "metro_p75": 39428.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25955.0, "metro_p50": 28074.0, "metro_p75": 29673.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32760.0, "metro_p50": 37105.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28342.0, "metro_p50": 37944.0, "metro_p75": 41496.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57558.0, "metro_p50": 64719.0, "metro_p75": 71834.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77414.0, "metro_p50": 93935.0, "metro_p75": 105561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119653.0, "metro_p50": 153404.0, "metro_p75": 169375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99189.0, "metro_p50": 143894.4, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 69269.4, "metro_p75": 76455.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71895.0, "metro_p50": 92702.0, "metro_p75": 104350.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 70413.2, "metro_p75": 83344.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43363.0, "metro_p50": 57528.0, "metro_p75": 70602.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73318.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37964.25, "metro_p50": 52541.0, "metro_p75": 59356.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61923.0, "metro_p50": 95788.4, "metro_p75": 119386.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55780.75, "metro_p50": 74500.0, "metro_p75": 74500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81254.75, "metro_p50": 96866.4, "metro_p75": 109235.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67038.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 103139.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36441.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 75920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 132854.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 100037.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 83090.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67657.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30028.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 61101.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Kentucky Center for Statistics / NKyTribune", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky unemployment held at 4.7% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Kentucky Center for Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Civilian labor force grew by ~6,948 to 2,116,455 in September"}, {"source_name": "KentuckianaWorks (Sarah Ehresman)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky labor market described as \"low hire, low fire\" environment"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Kentucky Center for Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing employment 2,000 jobs below August 2025 level"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Woodford County lowest, Martin/Magoffin highest county unemployment"}, {"source_name": "Kentucky WARN Act filings tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kentucky WARN notices down 60% year over year in 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:24:28.148431+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}