{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 328, "label": "KY NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:40:23.923756+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Kentucky workers return to a market still not hiring.", "headline_summary": "Kentucky's labor force grew for a third straight month in August even as statewide job creation stayed near zero and local wages for production and delivery roles slipped against stable national medians.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Kentucky unemployment rate", "value": "4.7%", "context": "Vs 4.1% national, 4.5% KY a year ago"}, {"label": "County unemployment range", "value": "3.2%\u20138.5%", "context": "Woodford County vs Martin County, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "KY labor force change", "value": "+5,625", "context": "Third consecutive monthly increase in August"}, {"label": "KY two-year job growth", "value": "~0 net jobs", "context": "Averaging 571 jobs/month added in 2026 after 2025 loss"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force is growing, but jobs aren't following at the same pace.", "body": "Kentucky's labor force expanded for a third straight month in August after five months of decline, yet the state has recorded no net job growth in two years. For nonmetro counties, this likely means a deepening pool of available workers without a proportional increase in open positions \u2014 a dynamic that eases labor costs but signals soft underlying demand."}, {"headline": "Wage declines in production and logistics roles diverge from national trend.", "body": "Local advertised pay for manufacturing production workers and delivery drivers moved down this month while national medians in the same roles held stable, a gap not explained by national conditions alone. This divergence is consistent with softer local demand in goods-movement and production work even as construction adds jobs statewide."}, {"headline": "Health care remains the structural anchor \u2014 with a 2027 funding cloud.", "body": "Health care and social assistance have driven most of Kentucky's net job gains over two years, and advertised pay for registered nurses rose significantly both locally and nationally this month. Federal Medicaid funding cuts beginning in 2027 threaten this stability, a policy-driven risk worth tracking rather than assuming continued growth."}, {"headline": "County-level unemployment spread undercuts any single nonmetro narrative.", "body": "Rates ranging from 3.2% to 8.5% across Kentucky counties mean a single 'nonmetro Kentucky' economic story oversimplifies real conditions on the ground. Economic development and commerce planning should reference county-specific data before drawing metro-wide conclusions."}], "local_conditions": "Kentucky's nonmetropolitan counties are tracking the state's broader pattern of labor force re-entry without corresponding job creation \u2014 statewide labor force grew by 5,625 in August even as employers add jobs at the slowest pace since the Great Recession. Construction and manufacturing posted modest gains statewide (1,100 and 700 jobs respectively in August) while leisure and hospitality shed 900 positions, a mix that likely plays out unevenly across nonmetro counties where tourism, agriculture-linked manufacturing, and public-sector employment carry outsized weight relative to urban Kentucky.", "implications": "Workers returning to the labor force without matching job creation points to a buyer's market for nonmetro employers on pay, but wage figures showing declines in retail, delivery, and manufacturing production roles locally \u2014 against stable or rising national medians in those same categories \u2014 suggest nonmetro Kentucky's consumer-facing and production employers are not keeping pace with national wage momentum. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should weigh this slack labor supply against thinner local wage growth, which may constrain near-term consumer spending capacity even as it eases cost pressure for employers. Consider reviewing county-level unemployment variation \u2014 from 3.2% in Woodford County to 8.5% in Martin County \u2014 before assuming uniform conditions across the nonmetro footprint.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Kentucky County & MSA-level employment data for September publishes October 22, offering the first metro-specific read on whether the labor force re-entry trend seen statewide in August held into fall."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant deadline", "body": "Federal Medicaid funding changes scheduled for 2027 bear watching now, given health care's outsized role in nonmetro Kentucky job creation over the past two years. Government economists should track early signals from hospital and social-assistance employers in the region."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% annually in September against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since May 2021. Whether this national real-wage squeeze shows up in nonmetro Kentucky wage data will matter for assessing local consumer purchasing power."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings reached 31 notices covering 2,769 workers through early September, including rural-adjacent employers like 80 Acres Farm. Monitor whether additional nonmetro-sited filings emerge before the October data release clarifies the regional picture."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20326.0, "metro_p50": 24592.0, "metro_p75": 29023.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21334.0, "metro_p50": 24702.0, "metro_p75": 26000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29598.0, "metro_p50": 35432.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58946.0, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25571.0, "metro_p50": 29888.0, "metro_p75": 32322.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29219.0, "metro_p50": 35405.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56678.0, "metro_p50": 68663.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30311.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31573.75, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39933.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26021.0, "metro_p50": 28069.8, "metro_p75": 29673.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32679.0, "metro_p50": 37036.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28188.0, "metro_p50": 38336.0, "metro_p75": 41644.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 64719.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78004.0, "metro_p50": 96032.2, "metro_p75": 108260.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 118348.0, "metro_p50": 153364.2, "metro_p75": 169889.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99230.5, "metro_p50": 144917.2, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58538.0, "metro_p50": 71000.0, "metro_p75": 79323.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72632.0, "metro_p50": 96740.6, "metro_p75": 105113.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46186.0, "metro_p50": 78328.0, "metro_p75": 85009.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 58052.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73196.25, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39630.0, "metro_p50": 54389.0, "metro_p75": 60996.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61810.0, "metro_p50": 94217.0, "metro_p75": 117500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51071.0, "metro_p50": 74500.0, "metro_p75": 74500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81903.0, "metro_p50": 97349.0, "metro_p75": 110024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68538.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 101940.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38135.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 72020.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 130469.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 108112.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81499.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 68096.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30210.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64736.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:52:17.489812+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ky-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}